12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby eyeno » Mon Apr 11, 2011 3:09 am

Nordic wrote:Sunday night:


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/premar ... y-hysteria

Premarket Summary: Inflationary Hysteria

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2011 19:36 -0400

One word (well technically two) can describe what is going on in the electronic pre-market arena right now: inflationary hysteria. Gold is at a new record, wheat is surging, corn is at highest since 2008, crude at a new 30 month high, silver is at $41.10 - a new fresh post Hunt high, beans surging, etc, etc, etc. Essentially everything is bid, following news first reported on Zero Hedge that PIMCO is betting the farm that either inflation is about to go parabolic and force bondholders to dump everything, or that the Fed will have no choice but to pursue another round of QE, sending gold to $2,000 and unleashing the Weimar endgame.



Silver is now even higher, at 41.60. That's just too fast. Weird.

Monday could be interesting.




The way I interpret the Soros Bretton Woods deal is that he is a smaller fish that will get swallowed by the bigger fish as globalization steams forward. He has gathered up a large crowd of very powerful people for this meeting. What you guys think? It is down to 4th and goal globally speaking. Is there enough willing financial muscle to put a strap on this centralization train before it hits critical super nuclear fissionable mass? If it ever truly hits mass getting it knocked out will be close to impossible in my opinion, and I suspect it is already too late sometimes.

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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby smiths » Mon Apr 11, 2011 3:29 am

it is worth remembering that silver isnt going too fast in some kind of vacuum,
its upward pace is directly proportional to real world factors
it will continue to go up until interest rates are at levels that are destroying large amounts of middle class lives
or until banks are cut loose and gutted by some kind of political class that doesnt actually exist

there are no comparisons for this, despite the fact that young trendies try to make out that thats its just the same old shit

resource depletion + environmental catastrophe + all-powerful military industrial elite + western industrial collapse = superchaos

in superchaos the currency to collect is 10,000 years old

silver was a good price when i bought it at $12, and its still a good price,

and also dont forget that people are now talking about how the gold/silver ratio has come closer to a large degree which is true, but they talk as though gold is static,
what if gold goes to $4,000, then silver would need to be $260 to maintain a 15:1 ratio

do you know what really shits me, i told my family and friends who really had some money to buy silver at $10, and not one of them did

my dad still thinks the ASX is the place to be, stock markets are so 20th century dudes
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby vanlose kid » Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:17 am

Ex-PBOC Official Wakes Up From The Acid Trip: "U.S. Treasury Market Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 09:31 -0400

After years of being the primary supplier of funding to the US credit-money shell game, one more ex-PBoC member wakes up from the "great normalization" acid trip, and in a Caixin editorial says what virtually everyone now understands all too well: the Treasury market is one "giant Ponzi scheme." Oh, and it wasn't obvious when China was the biggest holder of debt for years (until the Fed became the biggest monetizer of US Treasuries late in 2010)? Sounds like a rather serious case of buyers remorse is creeping into the buying mindset of America's formerly primary enabler. The $64 trillion question now, as always, is whether China, whose holdings have been flat for a year will follow in Pimco's footsteps and actually commence selling longer-dated paper. If so, and with QE3 now expected to end even if temporarily, the aftermath will not be what Congress wants to see.

From Market Watch:

A former adviser to China's central bank said on Monday that China should have retreated from the U.S. government-bond market and instead allowed the yuan to appreciate more freely, warning that U.S. sovereign debt was akin to a giant Ponzi scheme, according to a newswire report that cited an editorial on Caixin Media Group's website. Yu Yongding, a former member of the People's Bank of China monetary-policy committee and now a member of a state-run policy group, said allowing appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar under a free-floating currency regime would have reduced China's need to acquire U.S. Treasuries. He likened the U.S. Treasury market to a "giant Ponzi scheme," arguing that Federal Reserve buying of Treasuries has artificially kept bond prices high, but that they would eventually fall to levels which reflected fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ex-pbo ... nzi-scheme


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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby vanlose kid » Mon Apr 11, 2011 11:45 am

Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero.

MONDAY, 11 APRIL 2011
Mervyn King says the rise in inflation is temporary.
Do you worry about the increasing expectations of inflation? Well, worry not, the Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, asserts it is nothing to worry about:

April 18, 2007
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 668734.ece
The Governor said that inflation had become more volatile, in line with the Bank’s forecast, and he repeated its view that inflation was likely to fall back “within a matter of months”.

21 June 2007
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 54041.html
Our central view remains that inflation will fall back this year as the rises in domestic gas and electricity prices last year drop out of the annual comparison, and the recent cuts in prices feed through to household bills. But it is important to look through those temporary effects to the outlook further ahead.

Oct 12, 2007
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-chart ... -inflation
“The inflation report describes a benign central view of steady growth with inflation remaining close to the target,” said governor Mervyn King.

14/2/2008
http://english.eastday.com/eastday/engl ... 03426.html
However, he anticipated that the rise in inflation would be temporary and would be due to increases in imported energy and food prices that were unlikely to recur.

12:30PM BST 17 Jun 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... -year.html
The Bank Governor indicates that the recent rise in inflation is both largely beyond his control, having been generated by international factors, and will be temporary.

16 September 2008
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/b ... 55682.html
"Inflation has risen sharply this year, from 2.1% in December, to 4.7% in August. Inflation is ultimately determined by the pressure of money spending on capacity, which is controlled by monetary policy. But, other factors both here and in the rest of the world can have temporary implications for inflation.

16 Dec 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ation.html
The MPC considers the direct price level effects associated with the changes in VAT to be an example of such a temporary disturbance.

03.24.09
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03 ... 04182.html
British consumer price inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.2 percent in February, data showed on Tuesday, and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said it was probably a temporary move due to sterling weakness.

1/8/2009
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEcono ... &Id=819322
it is likely that overall CPI inflation will return to target in the first half of 2009 and then move materially below it later in the year.

13 Oct 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/rece ... years.html
"In August, Governor King forecast inflation falling 'quickly' with the chances of it dropping below 1pc as 'more likely than not," said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec.

December 16, 2009
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 958057.ece
As the Monetary Policy Committee [MPC] learnt last year, a temporary rise in inflation, by itself, is not a good reason to raise interest rates.

6:00AM GMT 17 Feb 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... orary.html
In the letter, the Governor said the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expected the rise to be "a temporary deviation of inflation from the target" because of short-term factors including VAT, the volatility of oil prices, and the fall in sterling in 2007 and 2008 which is still feeding through.

May 19, 2010 - 02:19 AM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19596.html
The MPC judges that together these factors more than account for the deviation of CPI inflation from target and that the temporary effects of these factors are masking the downward pressure on inflation from the substantial margin of spare capacity in the economy.

10:54PM BST 14 Aug 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... borne.html
However, Mr King has repeatedly argued that high inflation will be the temporary result of one-off shocks – including higher fuel prices and, from January 2011, the rise in VAT to 20pc from 17.5pc – while a sustained UK economic recovery is not yet guaranteed.

15 November 2010
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary ... 101116.pdf
As I described in my August letter, the MPC's assessment is that the current elevated rate of inflation largely reflects a number of temporary influences.

6:00AM GMT 16 Feb 2011
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... etter.html
Mr King believes inflation should ease as "temporary" factors such as the VAT rise, the low value of the pound and rising energy prices fall away.

So, worry not. The current inflationary trend is "temporary", and will - as has been repeatedly assured for months, even years now - fall back to within its 2.0% target any day now.

http://intrinsicvalueoffiat.blogspot.co ... l?spref=fb


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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby Nordic » Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:36 pm

I found this to be an extremely good explanation of what is going on in the US economy right now:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... -checkmate

Guest Post: The Fed's Most Dangerous Game: Checkmate
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 10:09 -0400

Ben Bernanke Carry Trade Federal Deficit Federal Reserve Global Economy Guest Post NADA Purchasing Power Real estate Reality Recession recovery

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The Fed's Most Dangerous Game: Checkmate

The Fed can only choose the least-worst option now: either destroy the real economy by sinking the dollar below support and unleashing the Inflation Monster, or abandon the "risk trade" stock market rally.

The Fed's game plan--sink the U.S. dollar to goose corporate profits, reinflate asset prices and create "modest inflation"--is now the most dangerous game on Earth. As overleveraged assets from real estate to stocks imploded in 2008 and early 2009, the Federal Reserve rushed to flood the global economy with zero-interest dollars. This did a number of things the Fed reckoned were necessary:

1. It gave U.S. banks and other insolvent financial institutions an unlimited pool of money to borrow at zero interest and leave on deposit at the Fed, where it earned risk-free interest.

2. It enabled a vast global "carry trade" in dollars: speculators could borrow unlimited dollars at no cost, and then deploy the cash around the world to chase higher yields in stocks, commodities, etc.

3. It allowed banks to lend profitably in the U.S., as their cost of money was reduced to essentially zero, and to pour "hot money" into U.S. stocks, creating a virtuous cycle of ever-rising equity prices.

4. With the bulk of U.S. corporations' growth and earnings coming from overseas sales, then a plummeting dollar boosted their profits effortlessly, further goosing U.S. stocks.

5. With savings earning nothing, U.S. investors were driven into the "risk trades" of the stock market and commodities, a flow of funds which reinflated asset bubbles. This reinflation was critical to foster the appearance of widespread "recovery" via the "wealth effect" of rising asset prices.

6. A rising stock market not only offered an illusion of "growth" but it bailed out pension funds and set the stage for Wall Street to reap billions of dollars from the resurgence of mergers and acquisitions, IPOs and derivatives.

The basic idea was to extend the game plan which had worked in the last banking crisis in the early 1980s: don't force the banks to declare their losses, but "extend and pretend" while offering them risk-free ways to bank billions in profits. The goal was to enable the banks to recapitalize "painlessly" on the backs of consumers and taxpayers.

The other goal of the plan was to create some modest inflation by brute-force depreciation of the nation's currency. This inflation would be "good" because it would enable debtors to pay off their debts with cheaper dollars, and it would also serve to reinvigorate the "animal spirits" of borrowing and spending the Fed views as the bedrock of the "permanent growth" economy.

If you're confident that your cash will be worth less next year, you're highly incentivized to spend it now rather than see its purchasing power decline.

But in choosing to depreciate the dollar, the Fed engaged in a high-stakes game with potentially devastating consequences. By pushing the dollar down to near-historic lows, the Fed now risks a destabilizing criticality: if the dollar breaks key support levels, then traders and holders everywhere will have great uncertainties about how low it might drop. That will encourage them to sell their dollars immediately rather than hold on to find out how low it might fall.

As we can see in this chart, the dollar's decline has not occurred in a vaccum: when the dollar declines, oil and gasoline shoot up. The dollar and oil (and other essential commodities) are on a see-saw, for oil exporters simply raise prices to compensate for the loss of purchasing power as the dollar declines. (Chart courtesy of dshort.com.)





The Fed is now trapped: if it crushes the dollar any lower, then oil will jump toward its 2008 highs around $140/barrel--a level that triggers recession in the "real" U.S. economy. A recession will disembowel the "recovery" and all the rest of the Fed's carefully nurtured props of "prosperity."

The unintended consequences of the Fed's inflationary plan to depreciate the dollar is evident everywhere in skyrocketing food and energy costs. Destroying the dollar has sparked destabilizing global inflation which threatens to spin out of control.

But if they let the dollar rise, then their precious stock market rally implodes. And what's left of the mirage of "recovery" if the "wealth effect" evaporates? Zip, zero, nada.

Here is a long-term chart of the dollar, courtesy of Harun I. I have added a few notes.



Note the long-term downtrend. No wonder 97% of the pundits and punters are bearish. The "line in the sand" is not far below current levels: if the Fed pushes the dollar below this level, technically there is no visible support, and oil will be on its way to $200/barrel, far past the point it pushes the economy into recession.

Many technicians have noted the wedge/flag pattern in the dollar's recent action. Price usually breaks out of a flag in a major move either up or down.

Also of interest is the extended period of indecision traced out between 1988-1994. In a macro perspective, this mirrored the trends and counter-trends in the U.S. and global economy.

The dollar has again traced out a similar period of indecision since 2004--roughly seven years. That suggests the possibility that a key inflection point is close at hand--the same conclusion drawn from the flag-pennant-wedge formation.

The Fed now has to choose between two bad options: either keep pushing down the dollar and let oil's inevitable rise trigger a recession, or let the dollar recover and watch stocks crater as the "risk trades" reverse.

If the dollar Bears have to cover their short bets, the ensuing rally in the dollar might well be explosive and self-reinforcing. I addressed this possibility in A Contrarian Take on the Dollar's Demise (March 25, 2011).

If the Fed lets the dollar depreciate in an uncontrolled fashion, then we may well end up with the hyper-inflation (loss of faith) that many expect. My question remains: what course of action will benefit those issuing the whispered orders to their lackeys and toadies on the Fed and in Congress? Will a disorderly and disruptive collapse of the dollar serve the Financial Power Elites' best interests? I don't see how it would. Rather, I see it wreaking great damage on their holdings.

Thus it wouldn't surprise me in the least were the Fed to shock the markets with a "surprise" rate increase within the next few weeks or months. Destroying the real economy to maintain the "risk trades" is a foolhardy way to close down a lose-lose position.

Harun sheds additional light on the broader contexts in his commentary:
Have you ever played chess against someone who refuses to resign even though he or she is down so many pieces chances of winning are zero. All they do is keep moving out of check until there is no more room and they are finally checkmated?

What happens if rates rise? At the time of a loan the principle is created, the interest is not, therefore, everyone who needs to borrow tremendous amounts of money to service existing debt (most of western Europe and the US) will not be able to, therefore there will be cascading defaults of unprecedented amounts. Governments would collapse seemingly overnight. If the game is to continue, there must be enough credit expansion create enough "money" to make interest payments and create so called "growth". Which brings us to...

Inflating the currency: As with the chess player above, it merely holds off the inevitable. Why is it "different" this time? Why has the system become so intolerant to the smallest adverse moves? Answer: Leverage. At 1:1 leverage 100 percent has to be lost to achieve ruin. At 1:2 50 percent must be lost. Jump to 1:40 leverage and only a 2 percent loss brings about ruin.

So what is our leverage? First, we must stop this version of off balance sheet accounting. This version of private household accounting keeps off the liability side of its balance sheet the federal deficit. It is also further skewed by dispersing the federal deficit amongst every person in the US. When is the last time a person bought a house and turned to their infant in the stroller happily using its toes as a pacifier and said, "your portion of this mortgage is $25,000.00?"

If total debt, private and public were carried on household balance sheets and divided only among the productive, i.e. employed, the reality of it would change the conversation dramatically. What would be realized is that the US and most of Western Europe is hopelessly over-leveraged and it is only a matter of time before the structural instability created by this leverage manifests in some unpleasant way.

And no, the answer does not lie in a one world currency. Without getting rid of current levels of debt we would run into Dr. Bartlett's analogy of microbes doubling every minute in a bottle. How much time would it take to fill three more bottles. Well, in the first minute the first new bottle would be full, and in the next minute the two remaining bottles would be full (remember, they are doubling). So if debt levels remain the same debt must double in order to service existing debt and providing growth.

This is why California and other states keep running into problems they thought they fixed. While they make minimalist cuts to spending those cuts are outstripped by the exponential growth of the interest on existing debt. This is also why the current deal in congress is an insult to every intelligent adult in America. Interest on the debt will consume that $33 billion spending cut in no time at all.

BTW, this is the same reason why discovering a brand new super-giant oil field will not matter if demand growth continues at a constant rate. Any and all growth is exponential and therefore will continuously double at some point.

The DXY yearly chart (not shown) shows that bulls have not been able to force a test of the previous three year highs. The quarterly chart shows bears have been able to push price down breaking quarterly lows to important support. What happens next depends. If historical support is broken then the probability increases that price will continue down and things get really interesting. If support holds or if price dips below support enough to get those stops and then move back up through support turned resistance the probability increases there will be a sharp rally as bears cover. But this tells only a portion of the story.

Look at what has happened while the DXY has been range bound. In the case of energy (and just about all other commodities) the DXY has underperformed dramatically. More specifically if you stayed in cash, the cost of gasoline has gone up four fold since the bottom in 2009.

Do this exercise across the commodity spectrum and the results will be roughly the same. So the question is, how long can can the current course be maintained?
Thank you, Harun. As I wrote Harun, it's Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's move, but he faces a cruel dilemma: if he moves his king out of check, he will lose his queen.

There are only bad choices left, Mr. Bernanke. That's the consequence of playing the world's most dangerous game with the dollar, grain and oil.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby barracuda » Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:14 pm

2012 Countdown wrote:Well Mr.Fish, at least we have you down as conceding that if a currency depreciates, the barbarous metals do retain value.


I'm not so certain I'm actually down with the proposition in those terms. I'm more than willing to concede that lots of things retain value during a depreciation, but realistically, the Zimbabwe situation doesn't support gold hoarding in any significant way. Aside from the bulkiness, Zimbabweans would have been much better off hoarding fuel or grain. Or US dollars, for that matter. Looking around the web, I think vanlose is probably right, that a loaf of bread such as the one featured at the beginning of your video costs about a dollar in any reasonable market, and so the value of the gold used as payment is one-fifth of the current international valuation. This tends to support the idea that there are any number of better ways to invest your money that would retain value or become more valuable in a hyperinflationary scenario, and that gold devalues in a similar manner to other units of exchange. Gold shares certain characteristics with fiat currency, one of which is a lack of real use value, and that characteristic allows for a flexibility in the exchange rate which favors the person holding a variety of goods of a higher use value. At a certain level, hyperinflation seems to be a sellers' market by nature, and the gentlemen selling loaves of bread for five dollar each are essentially stealing money from the buyers by radically overpricing a staple commodity.

Besides which, the problem in Zimababwe has not been helped by the use of panned gold dust as an exchange medium, but rather through the reintroduction of more reliable foreign fiat currency after years of attempting to deny the realities of street level exchanges taking place.

If it's true that bad money can drive out good, then the reverse can happen too. Witness Zimbabwe, which as recently as July 2008 was experiencing inflation at an annual rate of 231 million percent. This February inflation clocked in at a 3% annual rate, thanks to an experiment in U.S. dollarization that has achieved what price controls never could. There's a broader monetary lesson here.

When the country became independent in 1980, the Zimbabwe dollar was worth about $1.25. Inflation rose steadily by double digits under Robert Mugabe until the late 1990s, by which time his land confiscation from white farmers had crippled food production. To continue funding the government—and its debts—in the face of plummeting tax revenue, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe cranked up its printing presses, and inflation rose to triple digits by 2001.

By the end of 2008, consumer prices were nearly doubling from one day to the next. The government in Harare tried price controls, which merely exacerbated the shortages caused by Mugabe's expropriations. And the government periodically redenominated the Zimbabwean dollar, scribbling out zeroes by fiat, to little effect. In January 2009 it introduced the Zimbabwe 100 trillion dollar note, worth about $30.

Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono declared then that "the Zimbabwe dollar will not be overtaken by any other currency, formally or otherwise, now or at any point in the future." Except it already had. For years businesses had made many products available only in U.S. dollars or South African rands.

By April 2009 the government had stopped resisting, legalized the use of foreign money, and suspended the Zimbabwe dollar. The move essentially abandoned an independent monetary policy, but Zimbabwe's citizens could suddenly maintain their assets in currencies they could trust. Inflation began to fall to rates consistent with U.S. central bank policy.

The Zimbabwe economy has started to show other signs of life, such as store shelves that are full again. According to the IMF, economic growth hit 5.9% last year and is projected at 4.5% this year, after a decade of contraction. With a stable currency, more citizens can now earn enough to buy what they need, and even save money that might not instantly lose its value.


So perhaps it would be just as efficacious to hoard foreign currencies as gold.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby Nordic » Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:31 pm

Yeah, but which foreign currencies? That's a crapshoot.

The thing about PM's is that they are transferrable into just about anything, including these other foreign currencies you're talking about. :) So when things settle down, you can cash out, but do it in a way that makes sense.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby barracuda » Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:57 pm

Nordic wrote:The thing about PM's is that they are transferrable into just about anything, including these other foreign currencies you're talking about.


True, but you have to factor in the haircut.

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And probably a bad one.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby gnosticheresy_2 » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:13 pm

Ok so if I've got this right then current advocates of buying PMs are hoping for a Goldilocks Apocalypse*, where things collapse just enough for fiat paper currency to be worthless and PMs to still be a store of value but not quite badly enough that everyone's reduced to barter?

*You heard it here first! :thumbsup
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby anothershamus » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:17 pm

In the oft forgotten collapse of 1873 (I think the date's correct) a man in San Francisco bought a Hotel for 1 OZ of Gold!
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby Nordic » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:55 pm

anothershamus wrote:In the oft forgotten collapse of 1873 (I think the date's correct) a man in San Francisco bought a Hotel for 1 OZ of Gold!


I can buy a handful of houses in Detroit for an ounce of gold!
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby 2012 Countdown » Mon Apr 11, 2011 7:22 pm

barracuda wrote:
2012 Countdown wrote:Well Mr.Fish, at least we have you down as conceding that if a currency depreciates, the barbarous metals do retain value.


I'm not so certain I'm actually down with the proposition in those terms. I'm more than willing to concede that lots of things retain value during a depreciation, but realistically, the Zimbabwe situation doesn't support gold hoarding in any significant way. Aside from the bulkiness, Zimbabweans would have been much better off hoarding fuel or grain. Or US dollars, for that matter. Looking around the web, I think vanlose is probably right, that a loaf of bread such as the one featured at the beginning of your video costs about a dollar in any reasonable market, and so the value of the gold used as payment is one-fifth of the current international valuation. This tends to support the idea that there are any number of better ways to invest your money that would retain value or become more valuable in a hyperinflationary scenario, and that gold devalues in a similar manner to other units of exchange. Gold shares certain characteristics with fiat currency, one of which is a lack of real use value, and that characteristic allows for a flexibility in the exchange rate which favors the person holding a variety of goods of a higher use value. At a certain level, hyperinflation seems to be a sellers' market by nature, and the gentlemen selling loaves of bread for five dollar each are essentially stealing money from the buyers by radically overpricing a staple commodity.

Besides which, the problem in Zimababwe has not been helped by the use of panned gold dust as an exchange medium, but rather through the reintroduction of more reliable foreign fiat currency after years of attempting to deny the realities of street level exchanges taking place.

If it's true that bad money can drive out good, then the reverse can happen too. Witness Zimbabwe, which as recently as July 2008 was experiencing inflation at an annual rate of 231 million percent. This February inflation clocked in at a 3% annual rate, thanks to an experiment in U.S. dollarization that has achieved what price controls never could. There's a broader monetary lesson here.

When the country became independent in 1980, the Zimbabwe dollar was worth about $1.25. Inflation rose steadily by double digits under Robert Mugabe until the late 1990s, by which time his land confiscation from white farmers had crippled food production. To continue funding the government—and its debts—in the face of plummeting tax revenue, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe cranked up its printing presses, and inflation rose to triple digits by 2001.

By the end of 2008, consumer prices were nearly doubling from one day to the next. The government in Harare tried price controls, which merely exacerbated the shortages caused by Mugabe's expropriations. And the government periodically redenominated the Zimbabwean dollar, scribbling out zeroes by fiat, to little effect. In January 2009 it introduced the Zimbabwe 100 trillion dollar note, worth about $30.

Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono declared then that "the Zimbabwe dollar will not be overtaken by any other currency, formally or otherwise, now or at any point in the future." Except it already had. For years businesses had made many products available only in U.S. dollars or South African rands.

By April 2009 the government had stopped resisting, legalized the use of foreign money, and suspended the Zimbabwe dollar. The move essentially abandoned an independent monetary policy, but Zimbabwe's citizens could suddenly maintain their assets in currencies they could trust. Inflation began to fall to rates consistent with U.S. central bank policy.

The Zimbabwe economy has started to show other signs of life, such as store shelves that are full again. According to the IMF, economic growth hit 5.9% last year and is projected at 4.5% this year, after a decade of contraction. With a stable currency, more citizens can now earn enough to buy what they need, and even save money that might not instantly lose its value.


So perhaps it would be just as efficacious to hoard foreign currencies as gold.


I appreciate your thoughts. And I agree Zimbabwe is not the best example either for or against. That video however popped immediately in my mind when you'd mentioned their currency in particular. And yes, you'd potentially take a haircut if you do not play the situation right or it is beyond your control. These people are clearly being taken advantage of, but what other option do they have? Really sad. Every situation is different. They found a way out and relied on a strong(er) dollar. When the Dollar starts to hit the skids, where do we go? I suppose we can get Canadian bank accounts. Australia is pretty sound too. But what if the depression is worldwide? I stash away a few PMs in the safety deposit box as insurance. Like most insurance, there are exclusions, and I get this insurance in the hope of never having to use it (just like my bean cans I hope to donate to a food bank as the expirations come up). Some hope to get rich in disaster. That is possible in some situations. Some simply want to preserve their savings. We see trouble ahead. Metals are very portable and concentrated. They will always be there, as they are. Sure, getting bulk raw commodities makes sense. But what if we need to be on the move for some reason? Thats no good at all where I live. I could have to leave for any number of reasons. And again, barring total collapse, stocks will be fine. I have a few of those too. But the few PM pieces I have are just another leg in my stool. I don't know what is going to happen, I just want to be prepared as best I can. If I have given any impression that I have a full boat of coinage, this is hardly the case. I did say though that a few rolls of ASEs (wait for a dip!) or gold (maybe wait for a dip on that too) or whatever, if you can get them, put it away like your food stuff and forget about them - is a good potential insurance policy. I'd rather get them and not need them, than not get them and need them. If you have better suggestions, I have an open mind.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby vanlose kid » Tue Apr 12, 2011 3:45 am

Why aren't the honest bankers demanding prosecutions of their dishonest rivals?
By William K. Black
Benzinga Columnist
April 11, 2011 6:05 AM

This is the second column in a series responding to Stephen Moore's central assaults on regulation and the prosecution of the elite white-collar criminals who cause our recurrent, intensifying financial crises. Last week's column addressed his claim in a recent Wall Street Journal column that all government employees, including the regulatory cops on the beat, are “takers” destroying America.

This column addresses Moore's even more vehement criticism of efforts to prosecute elite white-collar criminals in an earlier column decrying the Sarbanes-Oxley Act's criminal provisions: “White-Collar Witch Hunt: Why do Republicans so easily accept Neobolshevism as a cost of doing business?” [American Spectator September 2005] This column illustrates one of the reasons why elite criminals are able to loot “their” banks with impunity – they have a lobby of exceptionally influential shills. Moore, for example, is the Wall Street Journal's senior economics writer. Somehow, prominent conservatives have become “bleeding hearts” for the most wealthy, powerful, arrogant, and destructive white-collar criminals in the world. Criminology research has demonstrated the importance of “neutralization.” Criminals don't like to think of themselves as criminals and their actions as criminal. They have to override their societal inhibitions on criminality to commit their crimes. When prominent individuals like Moore call their actions lawful and demonize the regulatory cops on the beat and the prosecutors it becomes more likely that CEOs will successfully neutralize their inhibitions and commit fraud. People like Moore have never studied white-collar crime, have no knowledge of white-collar criminology, do not understand control fraud, and do not understand sophisticated financial fraud mechanisms. They show no awareness of the economics literature on accounting control fraud, particularly George Akerlof & Paul Romer's famous 1993 article – “Looting: the Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit.” People like Moore not only spur neutralization, they actively campaign to minimize the destructiveness of elite white-collar crime and to deny the regulators and the prosecutors the resources to prosecute the criminals.

My favorite in this genre was authored by Professor John S. Baker, Jr. and published by Heritage on October 4, 2004.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Report ... llar-Crime

Baker concludes his article with this passage:

“The origin of the "white-collar crime" concept derives from a socialist, anti-business viewpoint that defines the term by the class of those it stigmatizes. In coining the phrase, Sutherland initiated a political movement within the legal system. This meddling in the law perverts the justice system into a mere tool for achieving narrow political ends. As the movement expands today, those who champion it would be wise to recall its origins. For those origins reflect contemporary misuses made of criminal law--the criminalization of productive social and economic conduct, not because of its wrongful nature but, ultimately, because of fidelity to a long-discredited class-based view of society.”

We “stigmatize” criminals precisely to increase the difficulty potential criminals face in neutralizing restraints against engaging in crime. Stigmatization is an important restraint reducing crime. Indeed, it is likely that stigmatization can be most effective in reducing crime in the context of elite white-collar criminals because such individuals have more valuable reputations that can be harmed by stigma. A violent street criminal may find a reputation for violence useful. Sutherland's research demonstrated that elite white-collar criminals were often able to violate the law with impunity. The corporation they controlled might pay a fine, but the CEO was typically not sanctioned when the corporation violated the law – even when the violations were repeated and egregious. Class proved, empirically, to be a powerful predictor of criminal prosecutions, convictions, and sentencing. Sutherland correctly sought to stigmatize elite white-collar criminals and to get policy-makers, academics, and the criminal justice system to view their crimes as important. Sutherland's partial success in doing so is what enrages people like Moore and Baker. By the way, in order to publish his famous book on white-collar crime, Professor Sutherland was forced to delete his tables setting forth the violations of law by many of America's top corporations – even though it was all public record information. The censorship had the ironic effect of demonstrating the accuracy of Sutherland's observation that class mattered when it came to how we framed and responded to fraud by elite criminals. What aspect of holding fraudulent CEOs criminally responsible for their crimes is “socialist”, “anti-business”, or “neo-Bolshevism”? Baker claims that “class” has long been discredited as an important variable. Baker is not a social scientist and he is flat out wrong about class. There are literally thousands of empirical studies demonstrating the explanatory power of class in a host of settings. Baker is also flat out wrong empirically in claiming that white-collar prosecutions target “productive social and economic conduct.” White-collar prosecutions of elites are overwhelmingly based on fraud. Fraud is one of the most destructive of all social and economic conduct. Consider six forms of economic injury caused by accounting control fraud.

Eroding Trust

The essence of fraud is convincing the victim to trust the perpetrator – and then betraying that trust. The result is that fraud, particularly by elites, is the most destructive acid for eroding trust. Research in economics, political science, psychology, and sociology concurs on the enormous value that trust provides in each of these settings. We have all attended conferences that provided the participants with bottled water. If we knew that one bottle in a hundred were contaminated how many of us would drink our bottle? This dynamic explains why hundreds of markets collapsed during the events leading to the Great Recession – bankers no longer trusted other bankers' representations as to asset quality. Accounting control fraud can cause systemic risk by eroding trust.

Bubbles

When bubbles hyper-inflate they can cause catastrophic economic damage and systemic risk. Accounting control fraud can hyper-inflate bubbles. The first two ingredients in the recipe for lenders engaged in accounting control fraud (extreme growth though lending to uncreditworthy borrowers) have the effect of right-shifting the demand curve. Because particular assets are superior devices for accounting fraud and because accounting frauds will tend to cluster in industries in which entry is easier and regulation and supervision are weak, accounting frauds tend to cluster in particular industries and regions. Accounting control frauds drove the Southwest bubble in commercial real estate during the S&L debacle and the U.S. residential real estate bubble in the current crisis. Hyper-inflated bubbles cause catastrophic losses to lenders and (late) owners, trigger severe recessions, and misallocate credit and assets (causing real economic losses).

Misallocation of credit and human talent

Even when accounting control fraud does not lead to a hyper-inflated bubble, it misallocates credit and human and non-human capital. Accounting control fraud substantially inflates individual asset values. Individuals with strong science and mathematics skills – critical shortages in our real economy – are wasted in making models designed to inflate asset values by fraudulently ignoring or minimizing risk. Accounting control fraud commonly produces reverse Pareto optimality – the borrower and the lender on a liar's loan made in 2006 and 2007 typically suffered losses while the unfaithful agents become wealthy by betraying their principals and customers. (It is important to recall that it was the lenders and their agents who normally prompted by false statements in liar's loans.) Fraud makes markets profoundly inefficient.

Gresham's dynamics

“Private market discipline” becomes perverse under accounting control fraud. Capital is allocated in abundance, at progressively lower spreads (despite massively increased risk), to fraudulent firms and professionals. In this form of Gresham's dynamic, bad ethics drives good ethics out of the marketplace. Note that once, for example, a significant number of appraisers are suborned by the fraudulent lenders to inflate appraised value it is more likely that such appraisers will go on to commit other frauds during their career. If cheaters prosper, then honest businesses are placed at a crippling competitive disadvantage. Effective regulation and prosecution is essential to make it possible for honest firms to compete.

“Echo” fraud epidemics

Fraud begets fraud. Or to put it in criminology terminology – accounting control fraud is criminogenic. Fraudulent lenders created perverse incentives that produced endemic fraud (often by generating Gresham's dynamics) in other fields. Fraudulent lenders making liar's loans, for example, created overwhelming financial incentives they knew would lead their loan officers and loan brokers to engage in pervasive fraud. Indeed, fraudulent lenders embraced liar's loans because they facilitated endemic fraud by eviscerating underwriting. Accounting control fraud also leads to the spontaneous generation of criminal profit opportunities, causing opportunistic fraud. Liar's loans, for example, generated a host of fraudulent entrepreneurs offering illicit opportunities to use someone else's credit score to secure a loan. (Austrian school economists should recognize this dynamic.)

Undesired frauds arising from control fraud

Lenders engaged in accounting control fraud must suborn or render ineffective their underwriting and internal and external controls. They also select, praise, enrich, and promote the most unethical officers. The real “tone at the top” of a control fraud is pro-fraud – often overlaid with a cynical propaganda campaign extolling the Dear Leader' astonishing virtues. The result is that the firm environment is criminogenic. Some officers may loot the firm through private schemes, e.g., embezzlement at Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings and self-dealing at Enron. White-collar crime prosecutions are overwhelmingly taken against frauds. There is nothing economically productive about fraud. When Heritage and the Wall Street Journal feature odes to elite frauds they are fertilizing the seeds of the destruction of capitalism and its replacement by crony capitalism.

Moore's article has the same tone and themes as Baker's complaints against prosecuting elite white-collar criminals. “[T]he anti-capitalist left … [is] using the criminal law for the endgame purpose of striking down the productive class in American that they so envy and despise….”

Moore decries the passage of “Sarbanes-Oxley and other such laws criminalizing economic behavior….” He claims that prosecuting CEOs leading control frauds will harm shareholders – which he plainly sees as prohibiting criminal liability for corporate officers. Moore's complaints about SOX are confusing because Sarbanes-Oxley does not criminalize honest “economic behavior.” “Economic behavior” is not privileged. It can be honest or dishonest. Only honest economic behavior is potentially productive. Even honest economic behavior may prove unproductive or cause severe negative externalities. Dishonest economic behavior can benefit shareholders. A firm that gains a competitive advantage over its market rivals through fraud will be more profitable and should have a higher share price. That increased profit and share price is bad for the world. It creates a Gresham's dynamic and misallocates capital. It may also maim and kill if the competitive advantage arises from selling harmful products to consumers or firms.

Moore eventually explains that what disturbs him most about white-collar prosecutions is that the CEO of a publicly traded company can be prosecuted for accounting fraud. SEC rules require that registrants comply with GAAP, so material accounting fraud constitutes securities fraud (a felony). Criminologists have long pointed out that accounting is the “weapon of choice” for financial firms. Moore objects to prosecuting the most destructive property crimes committed by elite white-collar criminals. Accounting control fraud drove the second phase of the S&L debacle. The first phase was interest rate risk and ultimately led to roughly $25 billion in losses. The Enron-era frauds prosecuted by the federal government were accounting control frauds. The current crisis was driven by the accounting control frauds – the largest nonprime lenders, Fannie, and Freddie. The officers that were prosecuted during the S&L debacle and the Enron-era frauds were not members of the “productive class.” No one destroyed more wealth, for purposes of personal greed, than these fraudulent elites. Their crimes and the harm they caused, however, pale in comparison to the accounting control frauds that drove the current crisis. That makes it all the more astonishing that not a single fraudulent senior officer at the major nonprime lenders, Fannie, or Freddie has been convicted. The shills for elite white-collar criminals have swept the field. The administration they constantly deride as socialist has continued the Bush administration's policy of de facto decriminalization of accounting control fraud. Moore and Baker have, once more, proven Sutherland correct – we treat elite white-collar criminals in a way that bears no relationship to street criminals. We now bail them out after they loot and cause “their” banks to fail and change the accounting rules at their demand to hide their losses. We even invite them repeatedly to the White House to advise us on what policies we should follow. The anti-regulators got their wish – they took the regulatory cops off the beat. The banking regulatory agencies ceased making criminal referrals, the SEC ceased bringing even their wimpy consent actions against the massive accounting control frauds, and the Justice Department ceased prosecuting the accounting control frauds during the run up to the crisis. The results were multiple echo epidemics of fraud, a hyper-inflated bubble, and the Great Recession. If Baker and Moore think these fraudulent CEOs constitute the “productive class” – then capitalism was killed by the producers. The financial frauds, however, were not productive. They were weapons of mass financial destruction. Their fraudulent CEOs were motivated by the most banal of motivations that every major religion warns against – unlimited greed, ego, and a radical lack of empathy for their victims. The most pathetic figures in the crisis, however, are not the CEOs but their shills. Why aren't the honest bankers leading the charge to prosecute their fraudulent rivals?

Bill Black is the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He spent years working on regulatory policy and fraud prevention as Executive Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention, Litigation Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Deputy Director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement, among other positions.

Bill writes a column for Benzinga every Monday. His other academic articles, congressional testimony, and musings about the financial crisis can be found at his Social Science Research Network author page and at the blog New Economic Perspectives.

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(c) 2011 Benzinga.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published in its entirety or redistributed without the approval of Benzinga.


Read more: //http://www.benzinga.com/life/politics/11/04/992426/why-arent-the-honest-bankers-demanding-prosecutions-of-their-dishonest-ri#ixzz1JI8Zexya


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the fraudsters are still there, on the streets, in the banks and corporations, the media, in universities and business schools, in governments – the same people – the fraud continues, the looting continues.

what is (hyper)inflation to these people?

profit. then reset.

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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby 82_28 » Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:57 am

Can somebody explain how all this shit applies to anything? What its function was in the past and what its function is now.

I happened upon this in the archives of the Seattle Times in an unrelated search:

Image

So, thinking, you know, I don't know jack shit about how the term "clearing house" came about, I decided to wiki it.

A clearing house is a financial institution that provides clearing and settlement services for financial and commodities derivatives and securities transactions. These transactions may be executed on a futures exchange or securities exchange, as well as off-exchange in the over-the-counter (OTC) market. A clearing house stands between two clearing firms (also known as member firms or clearing participants) and its purpose is to reduce the risk of one (or more) clearing firm failing to honor its trade settlement obligations. A clearing house reduces the settlement risks by netting offsetting transactions between multiple counterparties, by requiring collateral deposits (a.k.a. margin deposits), by providing independent valuation of trades and collateral, by monitoring the credit worthiness of the clearing firms, and in many cases, by providing a guarantee fund that can be used to cover losses that exceed a defaulting clearing firm's collateral on deposit.

Once a trade has been executed by two counterparties either on an exchange, or in the OTC markets, the trade can be handed over to a clearing house which then steps between the two original traders' clearing firms and assumes the legal counterparty risk for the trade. This process of transferring the trade title to the clearing house is called novation. It can take fractions of seconds in highly liquid futures markets; or days, or even weeks in some OTC markets.

As the clearing house concentrates the risk of settlement failures into itself and is able to isolate the effects of a failure of a market participant, it also needs to be properly managed and well-capitalized[1] in order to ensure its survival in the event of a significant adverse event, such as a large clearing firm defaulting or a market crash.

Many clearing house guarantee funds are capitalized with collateral from its clearing firms. In the event of a settlement failure, the clearing firm may be declared to be in default and clearing house default procedures may be utilized, which may include the orderly liquidation of the defaulting firm's positions and collateral. In the event of a significant clearing firm failure, the clearing house may draw on its guarantee fund in order to settle trades on behalf of the failed clearing firm.

The term is also used for banks like Suffolk Bank that acted as a restraint on the over-issuance of private bank notes.[2]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clearing_h ... finance%29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Clearing_House

Can someone explain what these financial institutions and elements are most probably doing today? How does this mechanism scale to today's level of debt? I honestly do not understand.

I can certainly see the propaganda has always been thick and the winger elites have always been at it to scare, rob and kill. But what is this and is this shit in play here?
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby vanlose kid » Wed Apr 20, 2011 7:46 am

UK Inflation CPI Hits 3.7%, Higher than Zimbabwe, Britain Sleep Walking towards Wage Price Spiral
Economics / Inflation
Jan 19, 2011 - 01:07 AM
By: Nadeem_Walayat


UK Inflation for December 2010 soared to CPI 3.7% from 3.3% which is set against academic economist expectations of just a few hours earlier of 3.3%. This now puts UK inflation Higher than that of hyperinflation prone Zimbabwe's CPI at 3.2%, thus making a mockery of long standing commentary in the press that it was ridiculous to compare Britain's inflation problems with that of Zimbabwe.


Meanwhile the more recognised measure of Inflation RPI stood at 4.8% and real inflation at 6.46%, as the official inflation indices have been systematically doctored to under report real inflation by successive governments.

The Bank of England MPC members continue with the mantra of temporarily high inflation due to short term factors. One could cut and paste from any inflation statements from MPC members of the past 12 months to hear the same propaganda out of the Bank of England. The question everyone should be asking the BoE is when does temporary high inflation stop being temporary? Originally it was for a couple of months, now it is a year, will high inflation still be temporary a decade from now? For that is how long I expect the Inflation Mega-trend to run.

The gold fish memory broadcast and mainstream media fed by ivory tower academic economists continues to tow the line of temporarily high inflation by focusing on core inflation that excludes, food and energy costs because off course everyone in the UK has stopped feeding or heating themselves, with some even blaming the inflation rise on VAT despite the fact that the VAT hike did not kick in until the 4th of Jan 2011.

UK Inflation Forecast 2011

The updated in depth analysis and forecast for UK inflation for 2011 (17 Jan 2011 - UK Inflation Forecast 2011, Imminent Spike to Above CPI 4%, RPI 6% ) concluded in UK inflation spiking higher to above 4% on release of January 2011 (Mid Feb 2011), and thereafter trend lower towards 3% by the end of 2011 and therefore remaining above the Bank of England's 3% upper limit for the whole of 2011. The Bank of England's most recent Inflation Report forecast UK CPI of 1.7% by the end of 2011, however the BoE had forecast UK CPI of just 1% by the end of 2010 (Feb 2010), which is inline with the Bank of England's permanent mantra of near always imminent deflation so as to better manage the populations inflation expectations in their favour.

Image

UK Inflation of CPI 3.7% is precisely inline with the forecast trend, that should see the UK inflation rate soar to at least 4.2% on release of January data next month.

Bank of England Targeting Nominal GDP Not Inflation.

My ongoing UK Inflation analysis has concluded in the fact that the Bank of England has clearly not been targeting 2% inflation for some time but more likely been targeting a sustained trend to above 2% GDP. Inflation is a tool to achieve this as high real inflation allows the Bank of England to pump out economic growth propaganda to give the illusion of nominal growth when in real-terms the economy is stagnating.

The Inflation Mega-trend

We are living in a decade of high inflation that was covered at length in the 100 page Inflation Mega-trend ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD), that contains 50 pages of analysis and 50 pages of wealth protection strategies.

Western governments such as the UK and USA are printing their way out of their fiscal crisis whilst emerging markets have soaring demand for commodities, goods and services and are now seeking to export their inflation abroad so as to prevent their populations from revolting over high food prices Tunisia style.

The bottom line is that the Bank of England remains paralysed by the fear of another Banking Sector Armageddon, and is continually pressured by the UK government that seeks high inflation as a means of making stealth deep real terms cuts in spending, the deficit and total accumulated debt, thus the British economy is being sleep walked towards a wage price inflation spiral, as people refuse to be lied to anymore on temporary inflation statements and start to demand wage rises in line with inflation, at which point the BoE will again act too little too late.

The British Pound soared against the Dollar on the news that caught many market participants off guard who had been expecting the opposite to transpire. My last in-depth analysis on sterling forecast a volatile trend towards a target of £/$ 1.85 by Mid 2011 as illustrated by the below graph (04 Oct 2010 - British Pound Sterling GBP Currency Trend Forecast into Mid 2011 ) .

Image

My next analysis will seek to come to a trend conclusion for UK interest rates in light of another year of high above target inflation and try to answer the question will interest rates rise during 2011 and if so when and by how much.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25686.html



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UK inflation rate is now higher than Zimbabwe's
By Daniel Hannan Politics Last updated: March 17th, 2011

"It could be worse: in Britain they have to tip in pounds!"

It’s true. Annual inflation in Zim is now three per cent, whereas the UK rate – even if we take the lowest measure, CPI – is four per cent (hat-tip, zerohedge). In reality, of course, the British figure is much higher: RPI is at 5.7 per cent, and adding the effect of tax rises would push it higher still. Indeed, as the excellent Allister Heath reported last month, CPI itself has been systematically understated because of a blunder by the Office of National Statistics.

You can crunch these numbers any way you like, but the fact remains: the Zimbabweans, despite a Caligulan tyrant, land seizures and an international embargo, have done a better job than our Monetary Policy Committee, whose raison d’être is to keep inflation below two per cent.

I’ll say it one more time, more in hope than in expectation. Stop printing money! Start raising interest rates!

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danie ... zimbabwes/


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