Canada election watch

[Jeff]

voting is still a mostly ceremonial ritual.

Ceremony and ritual are the base elements of our condition. Other factors determine the virtue of their observance.

[Jeff]

Well, you know the NDP have run a spirited campaign when even Der Spiegel takes notice of it with a 10-page photo gallery.

Auf der Jagd nach Stimmen ist sich Kanadas Spitzenpolitiker Jack Layton für nichts zu schade: Er bedient Kunden im Fast-Food-Restaurant und moderiert die Wetternachrichten im Fernsehen. Seine Popularität steigt - doch für einen Wahlsieg dürfte es trotzdem nicht reichen.

[Jeff]

Ignatieff linked to Iraq war planning

BRIAN LILLEY, Parliamentary Bureau
First posted: Wednesday, April 20, 2011

OTTAWA - As a politician in Canada, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has said that he was on the sidelines of the Iraq war, but new information reveals he was on the front lines of pre-invasion planning when he worked in the U.S.

Ignatieff — long known to be a supporter of the decision to invade — was part of an academic advisory team that helped U.S. state department and American military officials conduct strategy sessions.

The academic-turned-politician was singled out in a Pentagon briefing the day before the invasion started.

One of the top officials in Air Command cited Ignatieff's work in helping the military ready comprehensive plans to mitigate collateral damage while preparing for the invasion.

...

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/04/20/ig ... r-planning

[Jeff]

[Canadian_watcher]

we're having a go at jeffrey Simpson LIVE right now:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opi ... le1991685/

EDIT: I'm making him lose his cool.

Edit - ahhhh, that was fun. I suggested free tuition and he almost lost his mind. It's all about dollar signs and that "conservative reality-based" idea that there isn't enough of them to go around.

[Jeff]

Good job, C_w. That was fun watching his head explode. Funny how what's impossible and outrageous for Simpson to imagine is status quo elsewhere. Someone's priorities are askew.

Other news, making my head explode in a good way: a rumoured CROP poll to be released tomorrow, placing the NDP first in Quebec. (FWIW, as recently as the 2000 election NDP support in Quebec was beneath 2%.)

[Canadian_watcher]

HOLY COW!!!!

that is amazing! And excellent. And deserved, I'd say. Ending the day on on up note. Thanks!

[Jeff]

"At Issue" panel on tonight's National is largely devoted to the poll that hasn't even been released yet. (I think it's coming at midnight Eastern.)

This trashes all the narratives, and makes a lot of impossible things suddenly conceivable.

[on edit:] Just saw the Quebec numbers:

NDP: 36% (and 40% in Montreal!)
BQ: 31%
CON: 17%
LIB: 13%

It wouldn't be overstatement to call this any hyperbolic thing you please.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/el ... cueil_POS1

An Ekos poll released tonight also has the NDP ahead in Quebec.

New seats in Quebec could match their existing seat count. Add the rest of Canada, and soon Layton could be leading a minority government with Liberals as junior partners.

Toronto Star:

If the support holds it could lead to a breakthrough for the left wing party in the province.

...

CROP vice-president Youri Rivest told La Presse that it's bad news for the Bloc. Those who have stayed with that party are the most committed sovereignists. Those who have left, Rivest explained, are Quebec nationalists who are still at ease within Canada.

Layton has also successfully captured the leftist imagination in the province, and is considered the “real leftist alternative now to the Conservatives,” Rivard said.

[Canadian_watcher]

Notably, while the NDP has grown, they have actually held on to a major advantage on second choice and they now lead all parties by a large margin in terms of their theoretical ceiling (around 50 points). Their rising fortunes have been largely at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec and a flagging Green Party in English Canada. The reality is that these numbers were unimaginable at the outset of the campaign. Whether this is more akin to a Nick Clegg surge and fold or a Bob Rae like shocking ascension to power is very unclear. What is clear is that the race has entered an almost totally unexpected new territory which none of the pundits predicted, but which is clearly evident in our (and others) polling. Which leads to the less positive story of the Green Party and the Bloc, whose stumbling has been the principal fuel of rising NDP fortunes.

from EKOS site: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/04/ndp-breakout-continues-as-everyone-else-spins-wheels-april-21-2011/

I'm too excited to care if it's too early to be excited!

[Jeff]

It could all vaporize tomorrow, but how often has this happened in our lifetimes? So I'm enjoying this.

Eleven years ago I was working another lost cause NDP campaign, and after scrutineering the polls election night we all met up at a small Greek restaurant to watch the hopeless returns. I was having a beer with Layton at the bar when we celebrated the prize of retaining official party status. In 2003 I was certain he'd have my support in the leadership race, but then I attended a candidate's debate. I found his performance practiced, safe and shallow. Not what I'd come to expect from him as a city councilor. Eight years later, same thing. I love Parliamentarian Jack, but Candidate Jack leaves me cold. I suppose I don't have an ear for political theatre, because Canada's fallen in love with the Candidate. But I still despise the machine - even a socialist machine - that requires an ethical man to play an ethical man.

This, for instance, released today to close the deal



wouldn't mean much too me, unless I knew that there was also this Jack:



So, I suppose, whatever it takes.

[Canadian_watcher]

So he can't act... that's a good thing.

As culture changes (and I think it would change eventually if more politicians with integrity took the main stage) these types of ham-handed ads might fade into memory. For now though all of them have to put themselves into 30 sound bytes.

Remember the man who is there after the camera is off. Forget about the ads..

woo-hoo!
(still so excited!)

[Jeff]

woo-hoo!
(still so excited!)

Me too. It's like the ceiling has been blown off expectations of how we define success.

And also, as always - yay Libby Davies:

[norton ash]

I really felt the turn was in the works, which was why the early election discussion seemed irrelevant in the midst of bewilderment and apathy, and I think the momentum will spread.

This is why my Canada includes Quebec. The elan and audacity to say 'fuck politics as usual.' Now, if only the West and Ontario can be convinced that thinking like slash-and-burn capitalists is a suicidally stupid idea these days, we might get somewhere.

I'm happy you're happy, Jeff. To the Finland Station. (I'm going there tomorrow, it's what we call the village of Lappe.) (Last stop for smokes and booze if you're headin' oot.)

[Fresno_Layshaft]

Sorry, but there's no way the NDP will lead a minority gov. You're putting too much stock in these polls.

I can hear Mansbridge now, "The biggest story of the night is what didn't happen, what happened to surge of NDP support shown in early polling?..."

On Location, Talking Head, "Well, Peter, the polls showed Canadians are unhappy with current leadership, but when it came down to it they couldn't trust the NDP with economy.... blah blah blah...."

Cue up shots of Layton addressing supporters, with we made major gains, keeping on fighting...

[norton ash]

Tiny steps, Fresno. Trying to keep my head from being totally done in, y'know?