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https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/08/20 ... ributions/
Which Democratic Candidates Are National Security Employees Opening Their Wallets for?
Data shows that members of the State Department and the military are investing in candidates who are not currently topping national polls.
By C.K. Hickey, Shayna Greene
November 8, 2019, 3:50 PM
https://www.barrons.com/articles/mike-b ... 1574339404
Mike Bloomberg Is the Stock Market’s Favorite Democrat for President
By Connor Smith
Just when we thought the Democratic primary was narrowing, Michael Bloomberg is once again seriously considering a run.
Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, would be viewed most favorably by equity markets among candidates, according to Wolfe Research’s Chris Senyek, Chip Miller, and Adam Calingasan.
The team broke down several factors including stances on financial regulation, health care reform, taxes, and technology anti-trust issues for the five candidates they believe have the best shot at the Democratic presidential nomination. Along with Bloomberg, former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, the analysts consider Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg as the most likely nominees.
Across the board, the billionaire Bloomberg seems like the best for markets, according to the Wolfe team, while Sanders and Warren swap spots at the bottom. Biden and Buttigieg are sandwiched in between.
Bloomberg’s stance that Medicare for All would be too expensive makes him the most favorable for health care, while Sanders’ single-payer plan stands out as the hostile toward the sector. Biden, Buttigieg and Warren are all viewed similarly, they wrote.
On taxes, Bloomberg has suggested a wealth tax is unconstitutional—making him the most favorable candidate for equity markets, in terms of tax policy.
“Our sense is that Biden is next in line given that his plan focuses on reversing the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (‘The Trump Tax Cuts’),” they wrote. If Warren or Sanders wins the nomination, investors would start pricing in a risk taxes go up significantly, they added.
While breaking up big tech has been a focus of Warren’s campaign, Bloomberg has not provided an official plan. Biden and Buttigieg are only “paying lip service” for the potential break up of the largest technology companies, they said.
They also noted Bloomberg’s past comments that “overly restrictive financial regulations can have negative impacts on economic growth.” “This is polar opposite to the views expressed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who have both called for the break-up of large banks and a 21st century Glass-Stegall Act,” they add.
Since Bloomberg and Biden don’t appear to support the most expensive parts of the Green New Deal, a congressional resolution, Wolfe sees them as most friendly to the energy sector. A Warren or Sanders nomination would likely be most damaging for energy companies, the Wolfe team said.
According to Matthew Winkler, then a writer for The Wall Street Journal, Michael Bloomberg telephoned him in November 1989 and asked, "What would it take to get into the news business?"
Knowing that Bloomberg had no experience in journalism, Winkler presented him with a hypothetical ethical dilemma:
"You have just published a story that says the chairman—and I mean chairman—of your biggest customer has taken $5 million from the corporate till. He is with his secretary at a Rio de Janeiro resort, and the secretary's spurned boyfriend calls to tip you off. You get an independent verification that the story is true. Then the phone rings. The customer's public-relations person says, 'Kill the story or we will return all the terminals we currently rent from you.'"
"What would you do?" Winkler asked.
"Go with the story," Bloomberg replied. "Our lawyers will love the fees you generate."[8]
Winkler recalls this as his "deciding moment", the time at which he became willing to help Bloomberg build his news organization.[8]
Poll: Biden and Sanders tied nationally, followed by Warren
BY RACHEL FRAZIN - 11/21/19 02:02 PM EST 193
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are leading the Democratic presidential primary field in a new national poll, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) following in third place.
The Emerson poll released Thursday found Biden and Sanders each with the support of 27 percent of Democratic primary voters, with Warren following at 20 percent support. No other candidate received double-digit support in the poll.
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) was supported by 7 percent of registered voters in the poll, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang was supported by 4 percent.
Sanders's support increased by 2 percentage points since October in the poll, and Warren's support decreased by 1 percentage point, while Biden's remained steady.
“Biden and Sanders continue to hold their bases, which should concern Warren, as she has waited for one of the front runners to slip these past few months — yet, their support seems to be crystalizing,” Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.
Sanders in recent weeks has secured key endorsements from progressives including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.). Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) broke from the group of freshman lawmakers to endorse Warren.
Researchers surveyed 468 Democratic primary voters Nov. 17–20. The results have a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
More than a dozen people are vying for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -by-warren
stickdog99 wrote:Time magazine?
There’s Only One Way the Patrick and Bloomberg Campaigns Make Sense
Democratic Party elders are making plans.
By Alex Pareene
November 20, 2019
I’m going to write something annoying. I’m going to write some horse-race campaign analysis. I’m going to write very broadly and subjectively about trends in the race without using hard data or discussing policy. I’m doing so because I think what I am describing has a possibility of happening, and I think people who are invested in this presidential election should be prepared for it.
The following things are true:
To be very overly broad (I am, I am aware, describing the beliefs and motives of a large and diverse set of individuals), “Clinton World” detests Bernie Sanders, is largely on board with Kamala Harris, but has no real problem with Elizabeth Warren and would greet her nomination without much rancor.
“Obama World” doesn’t share this perspective. It doesn’t take Sanders seriously, and thinks of him—even with some affection—as a harmless crank. It, however, strongly dislikes Warren. I don’t want to say it would stop at nothing to prevent her from winning the nomination, but there are a lot of ancient tensions between the two camps that are far from settled.
If it is the growing consensus among many top Democrats in those two worlds that Joe Biden does not have it in him to win the nomination (or the general election), there are a couple of obvious paths forward: Boost the prospects of the “mainstream” candidate most likely to win if Biden fades or Option B, which we will get to in a minute.
In Clinton World, it seems obvious to continue to offer support to Kamala Harris, or to hope for Amy Klobuchar to surge, or perhaps get behind Warren. It would be smarter for anyone in the anybody-but-Sanders camp to throw in with Warren now, given the fact that the Harris and Klobuchar campaigns have entered a decaying orbit. But for many, those two senators still “make sense on paper,” so seemingly smart people are still convinced something might come of them.
But what should Obama World do if it sees Harris (or Cory Booker, or Julián Castro, both of whom are viewed with favor by this camp) struggling to gain traction? Many of this cohort seem to like Mayor Pete Buttigieg and would find his nomination acceptable. Nevertheless, they surely originally envisioned him as, perhaps, a future Senate candidate, or a running mate at best. It can’t be lost on them that the primary calendar after New Hampshire and Iowa becomes rough sledding for a candidate whose entire base of support is white. Still, they can’t back Warren; Sanders is an unserious option; Biden has perhaps lost it.
So: Enter Deval Patrick. But not to actually win the nomination in the primary process. No, this is Option B.
Patrick cannot possibly expect to enter the race at this late hour and run a normal presidential candidacy designed to accrue a majority of delegates ahead of the convention. (Who is he even hiring to run his campaign? There are a dozen active campaigns already being run by campaign professionals!) He won’t qualify for the debates. He has low national name recognition, hasn’t been fundraising, and his history in the private sector is radioactive. No one in decades has entered the race this late and won any primaries or caucuses. He launched his campaign in time to file for the New Hampshire primary but has already missed filing deadlines in multiple other states.
I am not the first person to suggest this, but Patrick seems to have jumped into the race with a clear purpose in mind: to hurt Warren’s chances in New England. (For those who doubt Obama allies would operate like this, please remember who runs the Democratic National Committee, and why.) Still, the Obama camp has been encouraging Patrick to run for years presumably because they think he would be a great candidate—in a general election. Patrick, too, is not the sort to leave his elite private sector job solely to screw over Elizabeth Warren on behalf of his friends from the Obama White House. He seemingly plans to actually run for president with the intention of winning the presidency. But the inescapable fact is that his campaign does not make any logical sense as a conventional primary campaign.
Finally, let us consider Michael Bloomberg, whose bid makes even less sense. While he is able to completely self-fund a presidential campaign, giving him an advantage over Patrick (who is regular-rich, not plutocrat-rich), the former New York City mayor is skipping Iowa and New Hampshire and purchasing generically anti-Trump Facebook ads instead of Facebook ads promoting a Michael Bloomberg candidacy. He has apologized for stop and frisk, yes, but he is broadly doing things to make himself seem acceptable to Democratic voters, not (yet) to convince them to support Michael Bloomberg in enough primaries and caucuses to give him the nomination.
Bloomberg also very much wants to be president, and has only declined to run in the past because he was smart enough to know he couldn’t win as an independent and probably couldn’t win either party’s nomination the traditional way. How could Bloomberg win, then? If he was handed the nomination at a brokered convention. I know that invoking that term is going to touch off a wave of groans from people who, every election cycle, read countless pieces of glorified politics fanfic from pundits predicting brokered conventions that simply do not happen anymore. I said from the start that this was going to be annoying.
But this is the only way these two late entrants make any sense. The Patrick and Bloomberg campaigns are not mere long shots, or attempts to harm Sanders or Warren on behalf of the moderates. They are calculated bets on a brokered convention. These are well-connected people at the highest levels of Democratic Party politics (despite his independent status, Bloomberg has always surrounded himself with Democratic campaign veterans and aides), making it clear that they think there is a real chance that the nomination will be completely up for grabs next July.
The fact that these two men and their allies believe this does not make a contested convention inevitable, or even more likely than it was a month ago. All the insiders involved with these latter-day candidacies believe themselves to be much more electorally savvy than they actually are. They make assumptions about the current front-runners, and about the electorate, that are probably untrue. Elections are unpredictable. But plans are in motion, because nothing is going according to plan. Be prepared.
The FBI’s Protected Voices initiative provides cybersecurity recommendations to political campaigns on multiple topics, including foreign influence, to help mitigate the risk of cyber influence operations targeting U.S. elections. For more information, visit fbi.gov/protectedvoices.
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