'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse

[Jeff]

Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

By Ben Raines
April 30, 2010, 2:18PM

A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

Kinks in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months.

"I'm not sure what's happening down there right now. I have heard there is a kink in what's called the riser. The riser is a long pipe that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don't know if that kink is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be another restriction further down," said LSU's Sears. "An analogy would be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink somewhere else closer to the faucet.

BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouget, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"When the oil is removed normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly high velocity," Gouget continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the liquid. It's essentially sanding away the pipe."

The formation that was being drilled by the Deepwater Horizon when it exploded and sank last week is reported to have tens of millions of barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons.

"The loss of a wellhead, this is totally unprecedented," said Gouget. "How bad it could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health concern."


http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deepwat ... _memo.html

[2012 Countdown]

Local coverage- WWL
OIL CRISIS ON THE COAST..click for the latest>>>
http://www.wwl.com/pages/6938604.php?


Hundreds of fishermen turn out to fight oil spill
Jay Vise Reporting

In Boothville in Plaquemines Parish, several hundred local fishermen turned at the Boothville-Venice School gym to learn more about contributing their time and boats to helping to manage the oil spill.

"About 300 people, maybe more, all local fishermen ... Many of them very angry and upset about what's happening to their livelihood," said CBS News Correspondent Peter King, who attended the event. "Many of them living in great fear that they're going to lose their livelihood completely."

Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said it is common sense to enlist the aid of local fishermen to battle the oil spill.

"They know these waters. They know we can point to the map, they know the depth of the water, they know how to get there without damaging the environment," Nungesser said. "So they�re the best people to do it, and we just thank BP for embracing this and working with us."

For fishermen interested in information on offering their boats for use in fighting the oil spill, click the following link:
http://www.wwl.com/pages/6939492.php?


==============

In regard to the part I bolded- I bet many of these same people were yelling 'Drill baby drill" just last year. Maybe this will wake them up, but I doubt it. Honestly, they're that stupid.

I am in a New Orleans suburb, despite many callers saying they smell oil, my dull sense of smell cannot.

[DrVolin]

Interesting timing, not very long after the Obama drill order. I am also thinking about AlQ's so-called gift of Al Aqsa promise. The gift of Al Aqsa is a gift of oil.

[2012 Countdown]

Interesting timing, not very long after the Obama drill order. I am also thinking about AlQ's so-called gift of Al Aqsa promise. The gift of Al Aqsa is a gift of oil.

Wait, what? Is there a nefarious theory on this already?

I'm willing to entertain anything, but who would benefit over this?

[2012 Countdown]

Interesting timing, not very long after the Obama drill order. I am also thinking about AlQ's so-called gift of Al Aqsa promise. The gift of Al Aqsa is a gift of oil.

Wait, what? Is there a nefarious theory on this already?

I'm willing to entertain anything, but who would benefit over this?

Good lord, well, looks like you've got company... Sure Rush, the all powerful environmentalist wacko agents?

Oil spill an inside job?


If Rush Limbaugh was on the far left, he'd be a 9/11 truther. As it is, he's on the far right, and has decided to become an oil-spill truther:

I want to get back to the timing of the blowing up, the explosion out there in the Gulf of Mexico of this oil rig. ... Now, lest we forget, ladies and gentlemen, the carbon tax bill, cap and trade, that was scheduled to be announced on Earth Day. I remember that. And then it was postponed for a couple of days later after Earth Day, and then of course immigration has now moved in front of it. But this bill, the cap-and-trade bill, was strongly criticized by hardcore environmentalist wackos because it supposedly allowed more offshore drilling and nuclear plants, nuclear plant investment. So, since they're sending SWAT teams down there, folks, since they're sending SWAT teams to inspect the other rigs, what better way to head off more oil drilling, nuclear plants, than by blowing up a rig? I'm just noting the timing here.


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-k ... e_job.html

[DrVolin]

I'm an equal opportunity conspiracy theorist.

[Simulist]

I'm willing to entertain anything...

You've never met my Aunt Lou.

[82_28]

This is going to be unprecedented. One would think this will put BP out of business. I don't see how all of the claims that are already in the works and soon to be forthcoming even the behemoth of BP can overcome. This isn't supposed to end for like 3 months maybe until they drill that relief well.

That said, I am sure there is a loophole known as the corporatist US.gov

[Laodicean]

“This thing is serious. It is a disaster and a tragedy and it will have far-reaching ramifications on BP, on the industry, the Gulf states, and on politics,” Fadel Gheit, an energy industry analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., told CBS MoneyWatch in an interview.

The price of oil rose to $85.82 a barrel today, up from the $82-per-barrel level it was at before the explosion occurred. But Gheit doesn’t expect the accident to greatly affect oil prices, since they are already jacked up to levels far beyond where supply and demand should put them. “I don’t see supply and demand fundamentals putting oil prices over $60 a barrel” he said. “[Prices] are inflated and manipulated by the trading of derivatives.”

- CBS MoneyWatch

[wintler2]

It is a sad sad thing. Hopefully those people directly affected have the information they need to identify the real culprits. To those of other species directly affected, i can only pray, "not many more years now".

Since hurricanes are 'fueled' partly by evaporation of hot seawater it'll be interesting to see if the slick has an effect on them in coming season. I'm guessing that oil on seawater would reflect less light and transmit more heat downwards than just seawater, but possibly also inhibit evaporation. It is only a relatively small area of GoM that is covered now but it may be months before they plug the well. My WAG is that enough oil would significantly increase water temp and thus hurricane activity.

[anothershamus]

If that is the case, it could pollute the entire Gulf of Mexico, Now it looks like the Delta and spawning and fishing grounds are toast, and an increase by 10 would be like a Cormack McCarthy, 'The Road' scenario!

[nathan28]

"Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

[Nordic]

A friend sent me these today. I don't think they've been widely seen. Looks like something out of a science fiction movie.

[Sepka]

A friend sent me these today. I don't think they've been widely seen. Looks like something out of a science fiction movie.

Those are deeply impressive. Thanks for sharing!

[Hugo Farnsworth]

Great pix, thanks. I just forwarded them to some friends of mine in "high places." Let me just say that until I hear or see otherwise, I think BP is fully to blame for this disaster.