rigorousintuition.ca

NDP moves into tie with Liberals: Poll

Mon Apr 18 2011

HALIFAX—The New Democrats begin the fourth week of the campaign tied with the Liberals for second place, but their support could collapse by the time voters go to the polls, according to a new survey.

An Angus Reid poll shows one quarter of Canadians say they would vote for the New Democrats, an increase of four percentage points since early this month.

That puts the party in a tie for second place with the Liberals, who are also at 25 per cent after seeing their support drop by two percentage points over the same period.

The Conservatives remain in first place with 36 per cent of the support, down by two percentage points but still a double-digit lead.

Support for the Bloc Québécois came in at 9 per cent nationally and the Green Party was picked by 5 per cent of survey respondents.

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The online survey of a representative sample of 2,032 Canadian adults took place April 15 to 16 and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Toronto Star's coverage of NDP surge is a joke … almost literally
By David J. Climenhaga
April 18, 2011

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A little later on, the story says: "The survey also notes that New Democrat support is considered soft. 'There is a clear difference among people who say they are going to vote for the NDP and the other parties,' said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, noting that 41 per cent of respondents who said they would vote for the NDP also said they could change their mind before the May 2 election."

"A lot of people are flirting voting for the NDP but it's not a solid thing at all. That could quickly evaporate as . . . a Tory majority becomes a little bit more of a possibility (and) I think you will see some of those votes from the NDP peeling off towards the Liberals," Mukerji went on, according to the Star.

Well, fair enough, but pardon me if I note here (as Mukerji doesn't bother to do, at least in the Star) that this kind of response by poll respondents recognizes the harsh reality of strategic voting under Canada's only slightly democratic first-past-the-post system, in which supporters of the party running third in the polls outside Quebec must acknowledge the possibility they will have to hold their noses and vote for the No. 2 party to keep the Harper neo-Conservatives from gaining too much power.

Plenty of voters, myself included, have voted strategically for Liberals when we preferred New Democrats because in the ridings where we lived the No. 3 party, whichever it was, didn't have a chance.

If the New Democrats are on the cusp of becoming the No. 2 party, it may in fact be the Liberals who see their support peeling off toward the NDP by the time voters go to the polls.

Count on it that if that possibility rears its head, the mainstream media -- and not just the perennially Liberal Toronto Star -- will pull out all the stops to prevent it from becoming reality.

So look for plenty of stories in the next few days like the Star's, full of qualifiers, hedges and explanations of why what you're seeing isn’t really what you're seeing.

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norton ash wrote:This may have some positive effect. More young people voting can't HURT, anyway.

Encouraging voters to vote on May 2 could also be the source of salvation for the opposition parties, according to Mr. Mulcair. "Right-wing parties are masters of the art of attacking the political class at large," said the New Democrat. "The more they attack the political class, the more they discourage people who want change from voting, as they eventually make them believe that it is useless. And if people do not vote, the right wins, since the forces of the right do indeed vote."

At the beginning of the campaign, it was cold, it was still almost winter, but on May 2, the good weather arrives. People will be influenced by the change of season and they will realize that it is possible to move towards something better, "added Mr. Mulcair. "Right now, people are depressed, it's as if they are emerging from five and half years of winter under Stephen Harper. But with the arrival of spring, hope is reborn.

Fresno_Layshaft wrote:I honestly cannot believe people on this board give even a passing thought to voting. We all know its meaningless.

This election will have the same result as the last 3.

Harper Gov't ™ will get 40-45%,
Liberals will get 35-38%,
NDP will get 12-15%

That's the script. Who the fuck cares? Fuck Rick Mercer and the CBC.

only one party appears to have an interest in driving down the participation of 18-to-24-year-olds in this campaign, says an expert on youth voting patterns. And now the Conservative Party is facing an allegation of election tampering after trying to have 700 votes cast by students earlier this week at the University of Guelph declared null and void.

Jeff wrote:We didn't get public health care by not voting. We won't keep it by not voting, either.

Casting a ballot's not everything, but here at least I think it's still not nothing.