So what do yall think the new currency is going to be?

[Agent Orange Cooper]

I'm pretty much in agreement with that meme. Not endorsing those things at all. Just answering the fella's question

[SonicG]

ethereum jpmorgan.jpg

Meet the new money, same as the old money...I'll never have enough of it either!

[Elihu]

Elvis, what do you make of the fact that the fedgov publishes something in the way of income and outgo. It is my understanding that the largest fedgov outgo is now interest on the debt. Over a tril annually I think? What do you make of that?

[Elihu]

From 2021: "In the scope of the world’s wealth, the value held in Bitcoin is miniscule. If we assume that this quadrillion roughly represents the total value of assets in the world, then Bitcoin represents 0.1% of all wealth in existence."

"All the world's wealth" is tough to define as well. If someone were fetching for us, I wonder about cash (us dollars). If total cash (paper bills) is known subtract bills known to be deposited or in custody and the difference would be physical cash supposed to be sloshing around out there in all its readily spendable anonymous glory. how much would that be? and how much bitcoin would that buy ?

[Elihu]

Elvis, what do you make of the fact that the fedgov publishes something in the way of income and outgo. It is my understanding that the largest fedgov outgo is now interest on the debt. Over a tril annually I think? What do you make of that?

before you answer, it has reached the level of absurd, no matter how looked at, if a new paradigm began and i missed it so be it, good luck with that. there is sure no point in arguing, I do appreciate interesting things others have to say

[Elihu]

editing to make use of this accidental double post, bitcoin is valued at 1 point three trillion usd, am I reading that right? how would that compare to paper bills in circulation?

and edited again! https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/p ... fargo-says

of tangential interest imo. probably aint poor folks buying . i agree with their conclusion

[Belligerent Savant]

.
Market cap of Bitcoin over the past year:

[Elihu]

""Pricing at that level and shipping costs suggests it’s a very low profit business at best," wrote Kelly." about eighty five thousand bars a month which is about one million bars a year valued at two point four billion, at five percent gets costco hundred twenty million?

[Elvis]

Elvis, what do you make of the fact that the fedgov publishes something in the way of income and outgo. It is my understanding that the largest fedgov outgo is now interest on the debt. Over a tril annually I think? What do you make of that?

Elihu, the interest payments go to holders of Treasury bonds---mostly banks and other institutional holders. Most are rolled over into new Treasuries.

The payments to banks otherwise just sit as added reserves, with no real effect on the real economy.

Ditto institutional holders (hedge funds, pension funds etc.), who generally just roll it over into new govt bonds.

Wealthy individuals may 'cash out' their interest payments and spend them, but the rich have a low 'marginal propensity to spend'; only if they spend enough to "trickle down" into the real economy is the possibility of demand-driven inflation a problem. (This may have contributed to lingering inflation recently, as the interest payments shot up.)

The problem boils down to increased wealth inequality---which is at an all-time high in the US and growing.

The issue is not "the debt" but rather the jacked-up interest rate, as the (Republican) Fed chair follows the tenets of "trickle-down" economics: raise interest rates to fight any and all inflation---regardless of the cause. This naturally puts the burden on workers, who lose jobs and see lower wages---that's the whole point of raising the interest rate. This is the Fed's way of "slowing the economy"---on the backs of working people.


Congress outsourced key parts of its money creation & management of the dollar to the Federal Reserve, as "trickle-down" policy places all responsibility for the economy on monetary policy, while ignoring fiscal policy as the (obviously) preferable tool for managing the economy. I think a central bank is a good thing, if monetary policy is conducted sensibly.

To sum up: the high interest payments caused by needless & misguided Fed rate increases is only a problem in terms of growing wealth inequality. The US government will never "go broke" and has been spending more than it taxes back for 230 years. Money comes from the government. One of the government's jobs is to provide money, so it will normally always be in the negative ("in the red"), if the private sector is to be in the positive ("in the black").

[Elvis]

editing to make use of this accidental double post, bitcoin is valued at 1 point three trillion usd, am I reading that right? how would that compare to paper bills in circulation?

and edited again! https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/p ... fargo-says

of tangential interest imo. probably aint poor folks buying . i agree with their conclusion

I think there's a little over $2 trillion of paper FRNs in circulation inside the US. The total outstanding FRNs is apparently around $54 trillion, but half of that is held overseas, and the rest held in bank vaults (and thus not considered to be in circulation).

In any case, paper notes are somewhat irrelevant vis a vis bitcoin. Most dollars exist as bank deposits. Paper FRNs are purchased by bank customers with bank deposit dollars (and putting FRNs into a bank exchanges them for deposit dollars. So I think the relevant measure here is M2---if for some reason the money aggregate alone is important (generally I'd say it isn't).

I've said before: bitcoin emulates gold---not money.

[Elihu]

the interest payments go to holders of Treasury bonds---mostly banks and other institutional holders. Most are rolled over into new Treasuries.

The payments to banks otherwise just sit as added reserves, with no real effect on the real economy.

Ditto institutional holders (hedge funds, pension funds etc.), who generally just roll it over into new govt bonds.

Wealthy individuals may 'cash out' their interest payments and spend them, but the rich have a low 'marginal propensity to spend'; only if they spend enough to "trickle down" into the real economy is the possibility of demand-driven inflation a problem. (This may have contributed to lingering inflation recently, as the interest payments shot up.)

The problem boils down to increased wealth inequality---which is at an all-time high in the US and growing.

The issue is not "the debt" but rather the jacked-up interest rate, as the (Republican) Fed chair follows the tenets of "trickle-down" economics: raise interest rates to fight any and all inflation---regardless of the cause. This naturally puts the burden on workers, who lose jobs and see lower wages---that's the whole point of raising the interest rate. This is the Fed's way of "slowing the economy"---on the backs of working people.


Congress outsourced key parts of its money creation & management of the dollar to the Federal Reserve, as "trickle-down" policy places all responsibility for the economy on monetary policy, while ignoring fiscal policy as the (obviously) preferable tool for managing the economy. I think a central bank is a good thing, if monetary policy is conducted sensibly.

To sum up: the high interest payments caused by needless & misguided Fed rate increases is only a problem in terms of growing wealth inequality. The US government will never "go broke" and has been spending more than it taxes back for 230 years. Money comes from the government. One of the government's jobs is to provide money, so it will normally always be in the negative ("in the red"), if the private sector is to be in the positive ("in the black").

i'm not sure we're looking at the situation the same. Your points seem valid but I'm not looking at where it goes and what effect it could have on the economy depending on policy etc, etc, etc.

When you pay your mortgage payment, you know, the amortization table? does the interest in the payment consume any of your resources? How about a credit card payment? Our benefactors, the feds, are not like you and me. They can make interest payments by "borrowing" more money from the very same people they owe money to. Sounds great like this could go on forever right? what's to stop it? So what's the catch?

Back where we began with this thread. Following that methodology it is germaine that each successive borrowing has to be larger and sooner than the one before it. Eventually fedboy will have to borrow every day, then every hour, then every second to prevent default on that growing balance. Which is impossible of course. And they have know that, and that's where the re-set will come in.

[Agent Orange Cooper]

[Elvis]

They can make interest payments by "borrowing" more money from the very same people they owe money to. Sounds great like this could go on forever right?

The government (via the Fed) provides the reserve dollars to buy the Treasury securities. It can't work any other way. Yes, it can go on forever.

As mentioned, today, selling bonds to offset the 'reserve add' of new spending is entirely optional.

does the interest in the payment consume any of your resources?

Again, interest payments on Treasuries consume no resources; the accounts are simply marked up.

The WEF notion of a "reset" is just meant to lock in rentier capitalist profits. It's a scam---but afaik it doesn't have anything to do with "resetting" national currencies.

The real debt problem is private debt, especially consumer debt, and not least medical debt. These debts are unsustainable and a structural "reset" is required to put an end to excessive consumer debt.

[Belligerent Savant]

Any thoughts from the RI braintrust as to these recent developments (causes, likely events to follow, etc)?

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japanese ... n-4bd27f50

Japan Intervenes After Yen Slides Against the Dollar

The yen has plummeted this year as traders shift bets on U.S. interest rates

By Kosaku Narioka and Weilun Soon

Updated April 29, 2024 at 8:03 am ET

The intervention came after weeks of speculation by traders that Tokyo was gearing up to help its beleaguered currency.

SINGAPORE—Japan intervened to prop up the yen after it hit a multi-decade low against the dollar on Monday, people familiar with the matter said.

Additional Google or other search browser queries will yield more info on this development. The above is merely a sampling.

[Elvis]

As far as I know, the problem is the distortions caused by the Fed raising rates in the misguided attempt to slow the economy by throwing people out of work.


Also, some discussion here:

David Andolfatto
@dandolfa

Japan should just let its currency devalue. What is the point of propping it up?

https://twitter.com/dandolfa/status/1785320849349939490

Any thoughts from the RI braintrust as to these recent developments (causes, likely events to follow, etc)?

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japanese ... n-4bd27f50

Japan Intervenes After Yen Slides Against the Dollar

The yen has plummeted this year as traders shift bets on U.S. interest rates

By Kosaku Narioka and Weilun Soon

Updated April 29, 2024 at 8:03 am ET

The intervention came after weeks of speculation by traders that Tokyo was gearing up to help its beleaguered currency.

SINGAPORE—Japan intervened to prop up the yen after it hit a multi-decade low against the dollar on Monday, people familiar with the matter said.

Additional Google or other search browser queries will yield more info on this development. The above is merely a sampling.