stefano » 11 Oct 2017 07:29 wrote:Project Willow » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:30 pm wrote:Common among mass shooters is that they perceive that they have failed at achieving
manhood as defined in this society, and they blame it on other people. I can think of at least two who targeted women because as men they felt entitled to sex, and thought they were being thwarted either by feminists or just women in general. For others, especially of the workplace going postal variety, they are unable to assert themselves to improve their social and economic standing, they feel weak as men and blame it on others.
The common denominator here is power, presumptions about power that accrues to men as part of manhood. Wealth enables men to exercise a great deal of power, it is a signifier of success, significantly reducing the pool of possible motivations based in perceptions of failed manhood common to other mass shooters.
I hope that makes sense.
This is really well put, I agree completely. Wealth reduces the pool of possible motivations, but not to zero. I still think that the two failed marriages, and the relationship with a much less well-off and thus financially dependent woman he met when she was in a relationship of subservience to him, are reasons to think Paddock had issues with masculinity. I think the fact that he liked Asian girls is relevant as well - a lot of Western men with the hangups Willow describes think Asian women are meeker and more traditional. And Danley or that other friend of his saying afterwards he was a sweetie pie doesn't change that. I have a friend who's impotent and we only found out recently, like having known him for 15 years. The nicest guy, we could never work out why his relationships were such disasters. Until it all made sense (and it was only his very last girlfriend who spoke out about it).
Anyway it's not like I'm married to the idea of Paddock being the shooter - I don't think he operated alone, and I think his strange background, and the cops' lying about everything, are related and relevant. I just felt like arguing against the false idea that the rich can't have issues, and the logical fallacy of 'someone exactly like P in these ways has never done this, therefore P did not do this'
Another fallacy that seems to be going around is 'the cops are lying, therefore P is an innocent patsy'. What if they're lying because he's guilty in a way that involves spooks? That's what I think is going on, and why, as Mac says, the Vegas cops and the FBI aren't on the same page.
How many jails would we need to build if people could be convicted of senseless mass murder based on their failed romantic relationships?
Once again, I am not exonerating Paddock of any and all involvement in these murders. I am simply taking issue with the utter logical fallacy that
the most probable explanation is to believe confirmed habitual liars that a guy with absolutely no fathomable reason to commit suicide, much less to devise an elaborate plan to murder dozens of total strangers for no reason before committing suicide, expertly executed an elaborate plan to murder dozens of total strangers for no reason before committing suicide.
I am just trying every possible approach I can possibly devise to snap us out of the availability heuristic we have been hypnotized by.
Paddock did something that to date has fortunately occurred in just an infinitesimally tiny number of wholly exceptional cases.
To reiterate, there have been fewer than 10 total cases in all of US history in which anyone killed several total strangers (and only total strangers) and then committed suicide after careful premeditation. Unless we are watching a Hollywood movie, people simply do not make and then execute careful plans to shoot and kill numerous total strangers (and only total strangers) and then themselves, That we have somehow have come to consider such incredibly improbable behavior both credible and probable is clearly the result of the availability heuristic and the influence of Hollywood fiction.
The fact that Paddock was a US citizen over 55 who supposedly shot more than 5 people in one day puts him in a class all by himself. The fact that Paddock that was a millionaire who supposedly shot multiple strangers in one day puts him in a class by himself. But the real reason why Paddock's supposed actions are so far-fetched is that they were carefully premeditated, they involved only complete strangers, they ended in unforced suicide, and they were not triggered by any known mental illness or personal distress.
Now we can of course invent all sorts of possible make-believe motivations for his supposed actions, but unless he was coerced into them, all of these make-believe motivations will apply in reality to millions of people who somehow, like 99.99999% of us, managed to avoid turning into premeditated suicidal multiple stranger only shooters. And the only reason we have to believe that a seemingly normal 64 year old millionaire turned into a premeditated suicidal multiple stranger only shooter is that some habitual liars told us so and their exact motivation for spinning yet another such whopper is not quite as patently obvious as usual.
Again, I am not saying Paddock could not have done this. Anything is possible, there is a first time for everything that ever happens, and I am willing to be convinced by released evidence that this is indeed the first time something like this has ever happened. However, the relative
likelihood of an event can be measured only by its past frequency, and at least to date, premeditated suicidal mass stranger only shooters are so rare as to be virtually nonexistent. Add to this the fact that our putative suspect was a rich, comfortable, cocky old guy with no history of mental health problems and no known financial or personal distress, and the odds that he did all of this completely of his own accord become negligibly slim. In other words,
it's not fucking likely so stop thinking it is.