rigorousintuition.ca

Yesterday, the announcer on CNN optimistically explained that, on the shoreline, in the marshes , if the oil is just on the stem of a plant - the plant won't die; but if the oil gets into the soil, it'll make the soil poisonous and nothing will grow there. So far, the oil isn't in the soil, he exclaims, So we got that going for us.

Why doesn't BP suck the oil into tankers from just above the riser where it is leaking? Why does the US government continue to allow BP to be in charge of such a high priority national disaster? This thing has been "gushing" for over a month. I feel like a war has been waged, and the US is getting pummelled, fighting with her eyes shut and hands behind her back.

I don't want to blow this all out of proportion, but that hole down there has been gushing what is now generally acknowledged to be 80-100,000 bbls of oil per day for over a month; not to mention the millions of gallons of toxic "dispersents" they're dumping in on top of it. The entire Gulf of Mexico is gonna be ruined. Can you imagine how the Gulf is gonna look and smell next month? Who knows how far this could spread. This event has exceeded my worst fears - because they're coming true! Trying to plug that blowout preventer might blow it out worse. Apparently, we may well be looking at another 3 months before they can drill a well and possibly, somehow "relieve the pressure". But if those geniuses nuke that bore, as has been discussed - trying to seal it...

I'm almost hoping this a media psyop, and they could shut that gusher off at any time. Maybe they already did. Recently, during his address to West Point graduates, Obama expressed his opinion that there should be an "International World Order"

Maybe someone was willing to inflict an acceptable amount of damage to the Gulf in return for some co-operation (or some oil leases). It only seems like the bounty of the sea is transmutating into a gaseous, oily sludge. The PTB has this show calibrated to a T; setting the stage, gushing just enough oil and televising the right pictures to achieve the desired perception. The ocean will come back... eventually.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the Masters to do what's best, and have faith that they are doing what's right for humanity and the Earth. For instance, can you imagine how overrun with gnarly humans the Earth would be if we didn't engage in war, famine, epidemics, "natural" disasters and false flags. Let our leaders lead (so what if they're getting rich selling us the poison and the bullets to kill ourselves). Like my Dad used to tell me, "Don't think about it, just do what you're told."

Nah. But, I sure do hope they turn off that oil.

chump wrote:Yesterday, the announcer on CNN optimistically explained that, on the shoreline, in the marshes , if the oil is just on the stem of a plant - the plant won't die; but if the oil gets into the soil, it'll make the soil poisonous and nothing will grow there. So far, the oil isn't in the soil, he exclaims, So we got that going for us.

Why doesn't BP suck the oil into tankers from just above the riser where it is leaking? Why does the US government continue to allow BP to be in charge of such a high priority national disaster? This thing has been "gushing" for over a month. I feel like a war has been waged, and the US is getting pummelled, fighting with her eyes shut and hands behind her back.

I don't want to blow this all out of proportion, but that hole down there has been gushing what is now generally acknowledged to be 80-100,000 bbls of oil per day for over a month; not to mention the millions of gallons of toxic "dispersents" they're dumping in on top of it. The entire Gulf of Mexico is gonna be ruined. Can you imagine how the Gulf is gonna look and smell next month? Who knows how far this could spread. This event has exceeded my worst fears - because they're coming true! Trying to plug that blowout preventer might blow it out worse. Apparently, we may well be looking at another 3 months before they can drill a well and possibly, somehow "relieve the pressure". But if those geniuses nuke that bore, as has been discussed - trying to seal it...

I'm almost hoping this a media psyop, and they could shut that gusher off at any time. Maybe they already did. Recently, during his address to West Point graduates, Obama expressed his opinion that there should be an "International World Order"

Maybe someone was willing to inflict an acceptable amount of damage to the Gulf in return for some co-operation (or some oil leases). It only seems like the bounty of the sea is transmutating into a gaseous, oily sludge. The PTB has this show calibrated to a T; setting the stage, gushing just enough oil and televising the right pictures to achieve the desired perception. The ocean will come back... eventually.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could trust the Masters to do what's best, and have faith that they are doing what's right for humanity and the Earth. For instance, can you imagine how overrun with gnarly humans the Earth would be if we didn't engage in war, famine, epidemics, "natural" disasters and false flags. Let our leaders lead (so what if they're getting rich selling us the poison and the bullets to kill ourselves). Like my Dad used to tell me, "Don't think about it, just do what you're told."

Nah. But, I sure do hope they turn off that oil.

Watching that 'live feed' is sort of like eco porn.

What did you expect? We let them get away with 9/11. We let them get away with destroying Iraq. We let them get away with destroying New Orleans. Why wouldn't the traitors who control our government do it again?

They could have had tankers sucking up this stuff a week after the rig blew up. They pretend that they have no clue and no plan. That no one could even imagine such a thing could even happen. Gee, where did we hear that crap before? Now they drag their feet and cry we have no choice, we're doing our best. Yeah, doing their best to destroy the Gulf Coast for the next few decades, if not more.

They could have had tankers sucking up this stuff a week after the rig blew up. They pretend that they have no clue and no plan. That no one could even imagine such a thing could even happen. Gee, where did we hear that crap before? Now they drag their feet and cry we have no choice, we're doing our best. Yeah, doing their best to destroy the Gulf Coast for the next few decades, if not more.

Mike Papantonio on Hardball-"Bring In Tankers To Siphon Up The Oil"
Video clip-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj1bAQvT ... r_embedded

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0524/morato ... l-waivers/
US has approved 19 environmental drilling waivers since oil spill
By John Byrne
Monday, May 24th, 2010 -- 8:48 am

On May 14, President Barack Obama announced that oil companies would no longer be given license to bypass environmental reviews of their drilling projects.

“We’re also closing the loophole that has allowed some oil companies to bypass some critical environmental reviews,” Obama said.

But in the month since the BP-run Deepwater Horizon (above right) exploded and collapsed into the sea, its drill site spewing an unending current of oil into the open ocean, the US government has granted at least 19 environmental waivers for gulf drilling projects and 17 drilling permits. Most are for deepwater drilling operations, similar to that conducted by the ill-fated rig.
"At least six of the drilling projects that have been given waivers in the past four weeks are for waters that are deeper — and therefore more difficult and dangerous — than where Deepwater Horizon was operating," the New York Times' Ian Urbina wrote Monday. "While that rig, which was drilling at a depth just shy of 5,000 feet, was classified as a deep-water operation, many of the wells in the six projects are classified as “ultra” deep water, including four new wells at over 9,100 feet."

"In explaining why they were still granting new permits for certain types of drilling on existing wells, Department of the Interior officials said some of the procedures being allowed are necessary for the safety of the existing wellbore," Urbina added.

A wellbore refers to the hole created in the drilling process used for the extraction of oil.

The Interior Department's Ken Salazar, testifying before Congress, said his department has been limited in contesting drilling efforts because of a statute which requires his agency to respond within 30 days of applications being submitted.

“That is what has driven a number of the categorical exclusions that have been given over time in the gulf,” Salazar said.

Urbina notes that the drill projects which have received waivers have yet to begin drilling. But, he says, "these waivers have been especially troublesome to environmentalists because they were granted through a special legal provision that is supposed to be limited to projects that present minimal or no risk to the environment."

Looks like this might as well be a freakin Sorcha Faal article from the looks of the EUTimes.com ...

US Orders Blackout Over North Korean Torpedoing Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Rig
Posted by Europe on May 01, 2010

A grim report circulating in the Kremlin today written by Russia’s Northern Fleet is reporting that the United States has ordered a complete media blackout over North Korea’s torpedoing of the giant Deepwater Horizon oil platform owned by the World’s largest offshore drilling contractor Transocean that was built and financed by South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd., that has caused great loss of life, untold billions in economic damage to the South Korean economy, and an environmental catastrophe to the United States.

Most important to understand about this latest attack by North Korea against its South Korean enemy is that under the existing “laws of war” it was a permissible action as they remain in a state of war against each other due to South Korea’s refusal to sign the 1953 Armistice ending the Korean War.

To the attack itself, these reports continue, the North Korean “cargo vessel” Dai Hong Dan believed to be staffed by 17th Sniper Corps “suicide” troops left Cuba’s Empresa Terminales Mambisas de La Habana (Port of Havana) on April 18th whereupon it “severely deviated” from its intended course for Venezuela’s Puerto Cabello bringing it to within 209 kilometers (130 miles) of the Deepwater Horizon oil platform which was located 80 kilometers (50 miles) off the coast of the US State of Louisiana where it launched an SSC Sang-o Class Mini Submarine (Yugo class) estimated to have an operational range of 321 kilometers (200 miles).

On the night of April 20th the North Korean Mini Submarine manned by these “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion and resulting in 11 workers on this giant oil rig being killed outright. Barely 48 hours later, on April 22nd , this North Korean Mini Submarine committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon causing this $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen.

To the reason for North Korea attacking the Deepwater Horizon, these reports say, was to present US President Obama with an “impossible dilemma” prior to the opening of the United Nations Review Conference of the Parties to the Treat on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) set to begin May 3rd in New York.

This “impossible dilemma” facing Obama is indeed real as the decision he is faced with is either to allow the continuation of this massive oil leak catastrophe to continue for months, or immediately stop it by the only known and proven means possible, the detonation of a thermonuclear device.

Russian Navy atomic experts in these reports state that should Obama choose the “nuclear option” the most viable weapon at his disposal is the United States B83 (Mk-83) strategic thermonuclear bomb having a variable yield (Low Kiloton Range to 1,200 Kilotons) which with its 12 foot length and 18 inch diameter, and weighing just over 2,400 pounds, is readily able to be deployed and detonated by a remote controlled mini-sub.

Should Obama choose the “nuclear option” it appears that he would be supported by the International Court of Justice who on July 8, 1996 issued an advisory opinion on the use of nuclear weapons stating that they could not conclude definitively on these weapons use in “extreme circumstances” or “self defense”.

On the other hand, if Obama chooses the “nuclear option” it would leave the UN’s nuclear conference in shambles with every Nation in the World having oil rigs off their coasts demanding an equal right to atomic weapons to protect their environment from catastrophes too, including Iran.

To whatever decision Obama makes it remains a fact that with each passing hour this environmental catastrophe grows worse. And even though Obama has ordered military SWAT teams to protect other oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico from any further attack, and further ordered that all drilling in the Gulf of Mexico be immediately stopped, this massive oil spill has already reached the shores of America and with high waves and more bad weather forecast the likelihood of it being stopped from destroying thousands of miles of US coastland and wildlife appears unstoppable.

And not just to the environmental catastrophe that is unfolding the only devastation to be wrecked upon the United States and South Korea by this North Korean attack as the economic liabilities associated with this disaster are estimated by these Russian reports to be between $500 Billion to $1.5 Trillion, and which only a declaration of this disaster being an “act of war” would free some the World’s largest corporations from bankruptcy.

Important to note too in all of these events was that this was the second attack by North Korea on its South Korean enemy, and US ally, in a month as we had reported on in our March 28th report titled “Obama Orders ‘Immediate Stand-down’ After Deadly North Korean Attack” and which to date neither the Americans or South Korea have retaliated for and giving one senior North Korean party leader the courage to openly state that the North Korean military took “gratifying revenge” on South Korea.

And for those believing that things couldn’t get worse, they couldn’t be more mistaken as new reports coming from Japanese military sources are stating that North Korea is preparing for new launches of its 1,300 kilometer (807 miles) intermediate range ballistic “Rodong” missile which Russian Space Forces experts state is able to “deploy and detonate” an atomic electromagnetic pulse (EMP) device, and which if detonated high in the atmosphere could effectively destroy the American economy for years, if not decades, to come.

http://www.eutimes.net/2010/05/us-order ... o-oil-rig/

Why does the US government continue to allow BP to be in charge of such a high priority national disaster?

Yeah.

That's been heavily on my mind for a WHILE now.

Ya know, if they destroy the gulf, ecologically, then there's gonna be the "we might as well just drill all we want there, since it's already ruined!" kind of attitude.

I don't think there's any conspiracy behind this, but they will practice "disaster capitalism" on a grand scale with this one.

elfismiles wrote:Looks like this might as well be a freakin Sorcha Faal article from the looks of the EUTimes.com ...

US Orders Blackout Over North Korean Torpedoing Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Rig
Posted by Europe on May 01, 2010

... On the night of April 20th the North Korean Mini Submarine manned by these “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion and resulting in 11 workers on this giant oil rig being killed outright. Barely 48 hours later, on April 22nd , this North Korean Mini Submarine committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon causing this $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen...

Those Fuckers!

Do you have an opinion on how much credibility the EUTimes has?

I've been seeing all kinds of stuff on the Internet lately. It seems evident that the campaign to confuse has been stepped up a notch. SF is a prime example. He/She writes these compelling, unsubstantiated headlines and they spread all over. This is a crazy story, but it makes sense - the North Korea vs. South Korea thing; and it jives with the reports of an underwater explosion preceding the one on the deck of the Deepwater Horizon. But, of course, it's typical for disinformationalists to build on obscure elements of truth.

I guess we'll find out. This summer is shaping up to be hot one. If NK does the EMP thing, SOS. Sayonara. Obviously we won't be communicating here for awhile.

I hope the story isn't true. I hope they shut off that oil.

chump wrote:

elfismiles wrote:Looks like this might as well be a freakin Sorcha Faal article from the looks of the EUTimes.com ...

US Orders Blackout Over North Korean Torpedoing Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Rig
Posted by Europe on May 01, 2010

... On the night of April 20th the North Korean Mini Submarine manned by these “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion and resulting in 11 workers on this giant oil rig being killed outright. Barely 48 hours later, on April 22nd , this North Korean Mini Submarine committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon causing this $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen...

Those Fuckers!

Do you have an opinion on how much credibility the EUTimes has?

I've been seeing all kinds of stuff on the Internet lately. It seems evident that the campaign to confuse has been stepped up a notch. SF is a prime example. He/She writes these compelling, unsubstantiated headlines and they spread all over. This is a crazy story, but it makes sense - the North Korea vs. South Korea thing; and it jives with the reports of an underwater explosion preceding the one on the deck of the Deepwater Horizon. But, of course, it's typical for disinformationalists to build on obscure elements of truth.

I guess we'll find out. This summer is shaping up to be hot one. If NK does the EMP thing, SOS. Sayonara. Obviously we won't be communicating here for awhile.

I hope the story isn't true. I hope they shut off that oil.

I think somebody is fantasizing about being the screenwriter on the next James Bond movie.

Well, I finally searched and YEP it sure IS a fucking SF article:

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1367.htm

So, yeah, EUtimes has no fucking credibility.

chump wrote:

elfismiles wrote:Looks like this might as well be a freakin Sorcha Faal article from the looks of the EUTimes.com ...

US Orders Blackout Over North Korean Torpedoing Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Rig
Posted by Europe on May 01, 2010

... On the night of April 20th the North Korean Mini Submarine manned by these “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion and resulting in 11 workers on this giant oil rig being killed outright. Barely 48 hours later, on April 22nd , this North Korean Mini Submarine committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon causing this $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen...

Those Fuckers!

Do you have an opinion on how much credibility the EUTimes has?

I've been seeing all kinds of stuff on the Internet lately. It seems evident that the campaign to confuse has been stepped up a notch. SF is a prime example. He/She writes these compelling, unsubstantiated headlines and they spread all over. This is a crazy story, but it makes sense - the North Korea vs. South Korea thing; and it jives with the reports of an underwater explosion preceding the one on the deck of the Deepwater Horizon. But, of course, it's typical for disinformationalists to build on obscure elements of truth.

I guess we'll find out. This summer is shaping up to be hot one. If NK does the EMP thing, SOS. Sayonara. Obviously we won't be communicating here for awhile.

I hope the story isn't true. I hope they shut off that oil.

http://pesn.com/2010/05/23/9501654_Gulf_gusher_size/
Just how big is that gusher in the Gulf of Mexico?

After having been pasted by hecklers on Slashdot, saying that riser was only 21 inches in diameter, not five feet, so his estimates on the oil flowing from the BP well must have been wrong, Paul Noel rebuts with additional information that confirms that the this gusher has been releasing more oil every day than the Exxon Valdez catastrophe.

by Paul Noel
for Pure Energy Systems News


The cameras have come in from the sea floor. They have answered the question. The riser is the drill rod and is used to torque the bit and pump mud down the well. The well has at least 2 times cross sectional area of the riser. If the well was also only 21 inches in diameter, no mud or cuttings could return up the well from the drilling.

The Blowout Preventer (BOP) is leaking far more oil than the riser. Exactly how much more is not yet determined but it appears to be about 2 to 3 times the Riser output. The riser has a hole in it that holds 0.61 cubic feet to the foot of pipe. Watch the live feed on the SpillCam if you want to see this. (It isn’t always available and BP controls it.) There are other leaks as well.

The formula for calculating the flow in the riser is: 0.61 cu ft/ft * feet per second of flow = Cubic Feet per second.

The riser is blowing in excess of 40 feet per second. The amount of oil emitted would be over 24.4 Cubic feet per second

The formula for converting to Gallons is: Cubic Feet per second * 7.48 gallons per cubic foot. = Gallons per second

This calculates 24.4 Times 7.48 = 182.5 gallons per second (Rounded to 180)

There are 42 gallons per oil barrel. This means that the Riser spill is 4.2 barrels per second (Rounded to 4)

Now throw the critics a 2:1 error factor and cut the number to 2 barrels per second. Then cut the BOP down to equal and exclude the obvious other leaks going on. We still have 4 barrels per second. That comes out just about 350,000 barrels of oil per day. That is a low ball estimate for this blowout.

The actual size of the gush coming out of the BOP is in the order of 2 to 3 times the Riser output. Everyone can argue any numbers but this is fudged down so far that it is probably wrong by a factor of 2 or 3 being too small for reality. The numbers suggest the possibility of a Million Barrels of Oil a day spill. (I am not willing to go that far out and prefer to suggest the 350,000 BPD rate)

As was first noted here (PESN Exclusive) the process of this spill is only bringing a small fraction of the oil to the surface. (Initially I suggested to Sterling Allan that it might be only 20% or so.) It probably is only 5%. Research ships have now found massive plumes of oil beneath the sea. The process of fractioning the oil is spreading out the oil separated by molecular weight in the saltwater column density anticlines. The exact volume of oil in these plumes as a percentage of their volume is not known at this time but even assuming a tiny fraction unbelievably large volumes of oil are escaping the well. The reported volume for one plume alone was 1.7 cubic miles. (Do your own math it was 10 miles by 3 miles by 300 feet thick) There were at least 5 similar plumes found.

It is entirely safe to say that this well has been releasing more oil every day than the Exxon Valdez wreck did. Nobody wants to believe the size of the spill. History will settle the matter beyond all question that my math was probably giving a very low estimate of the well output...

Now let’s look at the surface of the Gulf of Mexico and see what we have. There is a slick there as large as the State of Maryland. (National Geographic; Picture 5/17/2010) For calculation, spread 50,000 BPD over the area for the entire time. Do not leave out one drop and don’t let any evaporate, sink or mix with the water or get disbursed by the US Armed Forces and BP effort. It actually is doing these things quite fast. The whole mess spreads out to a thickness of 20 millionths of an inch deep. That isn’t even sheen and would evaporate at that thickness in a few minutes. Do your own math if you want. The point is that the spill is evidencing massively larger numbers than even the largest academic estimates.

One curious fact someone pointed out to me is that if the slick area were covered only 7/100ths of an inch deep in oil the volume would about equal the Mount St Helens eruption volume (May 1980). What does this suggest?

Using my estimate of 350,000 BPD * 42 gals/barrel we get 441 million gallons of spill over 30 days. That is 59,000,000 cubic feet. A square mile is 27,878,400 square feet. The area of the slick is now about 12,000 square miles more or less. This is enough oil to cover one square mile 2.11 feet thick. That averages 0.00017 inches thick over the spill area. That would hardly be a shiny surface.

The reality is that the physical evidence supports higher numbers than I have said. (I simply do not want to guess that big) Large volumes of oil are washing up on the Coast of Louisiana as I write. Some of these frothy slimy mats are very thick others are just thick oil enough to kill everything they touch except the oil eating bacteria that lives in the Gulf of Mexico. The damaged coast of Louisiana now covers over 200 linear miles of shore line. It also covers in islands and such damage to well over 1000 square miles. That damage cannot have been done by oil 0.00017 inches thick. It took a lot more than that...

... Some minor other issues. It is claimed by BP and others that the well only has about 19,000 to 20,000 psi pressure. This may be accurate. To clarify the scale of this is hard for most people to understand. Maybe it will become clear if you understand that the 45 cal ACP ammunition generates about the same pressure when fired. Unless you just like standing in the way of ammunition that is larger than battle ship shells driven by pressures equal to pistol ammunition I suggest you assume that the pressure is simply beyond belief. This is why solving the problem is really hard.

... Many people have discussed the issue of simply closing the top of the well. This is the famous “Junk Shot” and many other solutions. It all sounds nice. Imagine 3 miles of oil coming at you at high velocity (Several miles per hour) and under this pressure. You slap the valve closed after the mud is out of the well and the ram force may well slam the well casing, BOP and all several miles into the sky. It has happened in the oil industry before. In Libya in the 1950’s it was actually photographed that at least a mile of well pipe and equipment on top was blown into the sky all at one time. At these pressures a well without mud is out of control. At the velocities of the oil coming up this well, there is a fair question if the mud can be successfully reinserted. It might just get blown back out of the well. I have a firm respect that the Oilmen working this have a hard job.'...

--------------------
also:

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/50368
Awful News From The Gulf: Explosions Collapse Seafloor At Deepwater Horizon Well Head

chump wrote:http://pesn.com/2010/05/23/9501654_Gulf_gusher_size/
Just how big is that gusher in the Gulf of Mexico?

After having been pasted by hecklers on Slashdot, saying that riser was only 21 inches in diameter, not five feet, so his estimates on the oil flowing from the BP well must have been wrong, Paul Noel rebuts with additional information that confirms that the this gusher has been releasing more oil every day than the Exxon Valdez catastrophe.

by Paul Noel
for Pure Energy Systems News


The cameras have come in from the sea floor. They have answered the question. The riser is the drill rod and is used to torque the bit and pump mud down the well. The well has at least 2 times cross sectional area of the riser. If the well was also only 21 inches in diameter, no mud or cuttings could return up the well from the drilling.

The Blowout Preventer (BOP) is leaking far more oil than the riser. Exactly how much more is not yet determined but it appears to be about 2 to 3 times the Riser output. The riser has a hole in it that holds 0.61 cubic feet to the foot of pipe. Watch the live feed on the SpillCam if you want to see this. (It isn’t always available and BP controls it.) There are other leaks as well.

The formula for calculating the flow in the riser is: 0.61 cu ft/ft * feet per second of flow = Cubic Feet per second.

The riser is blowing in excess of 40 feet per second. The amount of oil emitted would be over 24.4 Cubic feet per second

The formula for converting to Gallons is: Cubic Feet per second * 7.48 gallons per cubic foot. = Gallons per second

This calculates 24.4 Times 7.48 = 182.5 gallons per second (Rounded to 180)

There are 42 gallons per oil barrel. This means that the Riser spill is 4.2 barrels per second (Rounded to 4)

Now throw the critics a 2:1 error factor and cut the number to 2 barrels per second. Then cut the BOP down to equal and exclude the obvious other leaks going on. We still have 4 barrels per second. That comes out just about 350,000 barrels of oil per day. That is a low ball estimate for this blowout.

The actual size of the gush coming out of the BOP is in the order of 2 to 3 times the Riser output. Everyone can argue any numbers but this is fudged down so far that it is probably wrong by a factor of 2 or 3 being too small for reality. The numbers suggest the possibility of a Million Barrels of Oil a day spill. (I am not willing to go that far out and prefer to suggest the 350,000 BPD rate)

As was first noted here (PESN Exclusive) the process of this spill is only bringing a small fraction of the oil to the surface. (Initially I suggested to Sterling Allan that it might be only 20% or so.) It probably is only 5%. Research ships have now found massive plumes of oil beneath the sea. The process of fractioning the oil is spreading out the oil separated by molecular weight in the saltwater column density anticlines. The exact volume of oil in these plumes as a percentage of their volume is not known at this time but even assuming a tiny fraction unbelievably large volumes of oil are escaping the well. The reported volume for one plume alone was 1.7 cubic miles. (Do your own math it was 10 miles by 3 miles by 300 feet thick) There were at least 5 similar plumes found.

It is entirely safe to say that this well has been releasing more oil every day than the Exxon Valdez wreck did. Nobody wants to believe the size of the spill. History will settle the matter beyond all question that my math was probably giving a very low estimate of the well output...

Now let’s look at the surface of the Gulf of Mexico and see what we have. There is a slick there as large as the State of Maryland. (National Geographic; Picture 5/17/2010) For calculation, spread 50,000 BPD over the area for the entire time. Do not leave out one drop and don’t let any evaporate, sink or mix with the water or get disbursed by the US Armed Forces and BP effort. It actually is doing these things quite fast. The whole mess spreads out to a thickness of 20 millionths of an inch deep. That isn’t even sheen and would evaporate at that thickness in a few minutes. Do your own math if you want. The point is that the spill is evidencing massively larger numbers than even the largest academic estimates.

One curious fact someone pointed out to me is that if the slick area were covered only 7/100ths of an inch deep in oil the volume would about equal the Mount St Helens eruption volume (May 1980). What does this suggest?

Using my estimate of 350,000 BPD * 42 gals/barrel we get 441 million gallons of spill over 30 days. That is 59,000,000 cubic feet. A square mile is 27,878,400 square feet. The area of the slick is now about 12,000 square miles more or less. This is enough oil to cover one square mile 2.11 feet thick. That averages 0.00017 inches thick over the spill area. That would hardly be a shiny surface.

The reality is that the physical evidence supports higher numbers than I have said. (I simply do not want to guess that big) Large volumes of oil are washing up on the Coast of Louisiana as I write. Some of these frothy slimy mats are very thick others are just thick oil enough to kill everything they touch except the oil eating bacteria that lives in the Gulf of Mexico. The damaged coast of Louisiana now covers over 200 linear miles of shore line. It also covers in islands and such damage to well over 1000 square miles. That damage cannot have been done by oil 0.00017 inches thick. It took a lot more than that...

... Some minor other issues. It is claimed by BP and others that the well only has about 19,000 to 20,000 psi pressure. This may be accurate. To clarify the scale of this is hard for most people to understand. Maybe it will become clear if you understand that the 45 cal ACP ammunition generates about the same pressure when fired. Unless you just like standing in the way of ammunition that is larger than battle ship shells driven by pressures equal to pistol ammunition I suggest you assume that the pressure is simply beyond belief. This is why solving the problem is really hard.

... Many people have discussed the issue of simply closing the top of the well. This is the famous “Junk Shot” and many other solutions. It all sounds nice. Imagine 3 miles of oil coming at you at high velocity (Several miles per hour) and under this pressure. You slap the valve closed after the mud is out of the well and the ram force may well slam the well casing, BOP and all several miles into the sky. It has happened in the oil industry before. In Libya in the 1950’s it was actually photographed that at least a mile of well pipe and equipment on top was blown into the sky all at one time. At these pressures a well without mud is out of control. At the velocities of the oil coming up this well, there is a fair question if the mud can be successfully reinserted. It might just get blown back out of the well. I have a firm respect that the Oilmen working this have a hard job.'...

--------------------
also:

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/50368
Awful News From The Gulf: Explosions Collapse Seafloor At Deepwater Horizon Well Head

More batshit WOO crapola. No oil well in the history of petroleum has ever produced 350,000 bopd. There was one in Baku that made 300,000 bopd for a brief period of time in the early 20th century. I really wish people who do not understand the problem would stop writing about it, to wit:

If the well was also only 21 inches in diameter, no mud or cuttings could return up the well from the drilling.

I do not understand how he does not understand. Trying to determine how much oil is being produced from the underwater videos or from estimates of the slick size is poor science, at best. Arguing and estimating the rate is tantamount to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Electric logs of the Macondo well taken prior to liner/cementing operations would tell a properly trained academic what the maximum values of porosity and permeability which would set the upper limit on how much oil the well could theoretically produce and how fast it could produce it and no more.

They sure the fuck are coming up with the memes and they are spreading like wild fire. Let's all agree to keep an eye on this -- esp the memes. Let's speculate and use intuition on the trajectories this can go. We got a good team here @ RI. But the memes are coming think and heavy -- I feel like we're about to go into extreme confusion mode. They're all in damage control. I'm calling a quick, just off the cuff prediction -- Obama is impeached or resigns by August. I also think that the Gulf is fucked for the rest of eternity. FUCK! There is literally nothing we can do.

We need to really hone in on the leverage that is being made -- which direction, totally multi-contextual, multi-meanings taking into consideration racism, teapartiers, Obama, Bush, Halliburton, anger, destruction, multiple "wars", the "bailout" -- oh man, you just name it. This is:

FUBAR

Perhaps, just perhaps, we can create a new directory for this? Not to "muddle the waters" any, but maybe an entire directory here concerning this most grave disaster of the most epic proportions even I didn't think I would ever see.

Deepwater Horizon: This is what the end of the Oil Age looks like
by Richard Heinberg
May 26 2010

Lately I’ve been reading the excellent coverage of the Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill at http://www.TheOilDrum.com, a site frequented by veteran oil geologists and engineers. A couple of adages from the old-timers are worth quoting: “Cut corners all you want, but never downhole,” and, “There’s fast, there’s cheap, and there’s right, and you get to pick two.”

There will be plenty of blame to go around, as events leading up to the fatal rig explosion are sorted out. Even if efforts to plug the gushing leak succeed sooner rather than later, the damage to the Gulf environment and to the economy of the region will be incalculable and will linger for years if not decades. The deadly stench from oil-oaked marshes—as spring turns to hot, fetid summer—will by itself ruin tens or hundreds of thousands of lives and livelihoods. Then there’s the loss of the seafood industry: we’re talking about more than the crippling of the economic backbone of the region; anyone who’s spent time in New Orleans (my wife’s family all live there) knows that the people and culture of southern Louisiana are literally as well as figuratively composed of digested crawfish, shrimp, and speckled trout. Given the historic political support from this part of the country for offshore drilling, and for the petroleum industry in general, this really amounts to sacrificing the faithful on the altar of oil.

But the following should be an even clearer conclusion from all that has happened, and that is still unfolding: This is what the end of the oil age looks like. The cheap, easy petroleum is gone; from now on, we will pay steadily more and more for what we put in our gas tanks—more not just in dollars, but in lives and health, in a failed foreign policy that spawns foreign wars and military occupations, and in the lost integrity of the biological systems that sustain life on this planet.

The only solution is to do proactively, and sooner, what we will end up doing anyway as a result of resource depletion and economic, environmental, and military ruin: end our dependence on the stuff. Everybody knows we must do this. Even a recent American president (an oil man, it should be noted) admitted that “America is addicted to oil.” Will we let this addiction destroy us, or will we overcome it? Good intentions are not enough. Now is the moment for the President, other elected officials at all levels of government, and ordinary citizens to make this our central priority as a nation. We have hard choices to make, and an enormous amount of work to do.

OIL SHOCKS
by Elizabeth Kolbert
May 25, 2010

In September of 1968, Union Oil Company of California, which later became Unocal and is now part of Chevron, erected a drilling platform off the coast near Santa Barbara. Over the next four months, four wells were constructed. Work on a fifth had begun and was proceeding uneventfully until, on January 28, 1969, the new well suffered a blowout. It took ten days’ effort before it was finally plugged, with cement slurry. By the time the flow had stopped completely, an estimated hundred thousand barrels of oil had poured into the Santa Barbara Channel. The slick it created covered eight hundred square miles. The area’s fishing industry was shut down, and pictures of blackened beaches filled the news.

Americans had never seen a spill like this, and they were shocked by it. There were protests—Californians stuck their gasoline credit cards on skewers and lit them on fire—followed by new horrors. In June of 1969, Ohio’s spectacularly polluted Cuyahoga River burst into flame. By the end of the year, Congress had passed the National Environmental Policy Act, known by the acronym NEPA, which requires federal agencies to file impact statements for all actions that could have a significant ecological effect. The following spring, millions of people took to the streets for Earth Day, and by the second anniversary of the spill President Richard Nixon had created the Environmental Protection Agency and signed into law the Clean Air Act.

BP’s Deepwater Horizon spill makes the Santa Barbara spill look like a puddle. By some estimates, the BP spill is spewing as much oil into the Gulf of Mexico each day as the Union well spewed into the Santa Barbara Channel in all, and the BP spill is now in its second month. The news out of the Gulf continues to range from grim to grimmer. Recently, it was revealed that the spill has created an undersea plume of oil ten miles long, and that some of the oil has already entered the loop current and is being carried toward Florida. Then the federal government doubled the area of the Gulf that had been closed to fishing. On Friday, the government increased that area again, to forty-eight thousand square miles. President Barack Obama has called the spill a “massive and potentially unprecedented environmental disaster,” a characterization that, if anything, probably understates the case.

In an immediate sense, the causes of the catastrophe are technical. Apparently, the Deepwater Horizon well was inadequately sealed, and natural gas built up inside it. When workers on the rig tried to activate the well’s blowout preventer, it failed. An attempt to activate the blowout preventer after the fact, using undersea robots, also proved unsuccessful. Another effort to cap the leak, by using what amounted to a hundred-ton steel funnel, flopped as well. Last week, BP finally succeeded in inserting a mile-long tube into the riser leading from the well. The company said that it was capturing a thousand barrels of oil a day, which is what it originally claimed that the well was leaking; nevertheless, crude continued to pour into the Gulf. (In a recent column in the Miami Herald, the author Carl Hiaasen joked that BP’s next move would be to try to seal the well with thousands of tons of instant oatmeal.)

But the real causes of the disaster go, as it were, much deeper. Having consumed most of the world’s readily accessible oil, we are now compelled to look for fuel in ever more remote places, and to extract it in ever riskier and more damaging ways. The Deepwater Horizon well was being drilled in five thousand feet of water, to a total depth of eighteen thousand feet. (By contrast, the Santa Barbara well was drilled in less than two hundred feet of water, to a total depth of thirty-five hundred feet.) While the point of “peak oil” may or may not have been reached, what Michael Klare, a professor at Hampshire College, has dubbed the Age of Tough Oil has clearly begun. This year, the United States’ largest single source of imported oil is expected to be the Canadian tar sands. Oil from the tar sands comes in what is essentially a solid form: it has to be either strip-mined, a process that leaves behind a devastated landscape, or melted out of the earth using vast quantities of natural gas.

Meanwhile, as everyone knows, no matter where oil comes from or how it has been extracted, burning it is destructive: oil combustion accounts for nearly a third of the greenhouse-gas emissions in the United States. A report issued last week by the National Academy of Sciences called on Congress to enact legislation to dramatically reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, by, among other things, “reducing oil use.”

Will the Gulf spill, like the Santa Barbara spill, prove to be the kind of disaster that jolts the nation into action? So far, the signs are not encouraging. Members of the Drill, Baby, Drill Party have blocked efforts to raise the liability limits for oil spills, and have yet to muster a single sponsor for climate legislation. At the same time, they have sought to portray the spill as President Obama’s Katrina.

The President does, in fact, share in the blame. Obama inherited an Interior Department that he knew to be plagued by corruption, but he allowed the department’s particularly disreputable Minerals Management Service to party on. Last spring, in keeping with its usual custom, the M.M.S. granted BP all sorts of exemptions from environmental regulations. Ironically, one of these exemptions allowed the company to drill the Deepwater Horizon well without adhering to the standards set by NEPA. For reasons that are hard to explain, the Administration still can’t, or won’t, say exactly how much oil is leaking.

The President needs to set higher standards—for his Administration, for Congress, and for the country. Earlier this month, an energy bill was finally unveiled in the Senate. It is deeply flawed: for a start, it would increase the incentives for offshore drilling, and preëmpt the E.P.A.’s ability to enforce parts of the Clean Air Act. Obama should return to the Gulf and, against the backdrop of the grotesque orange slick, explain to the public why he wants more ambitious legislation. Then he should spend the summer working to get an energy bill passed. He’s not going to get a better opportunity—or so, at least, we have to hope.

Allright already. I'm convinced that it is already a lot of oil; and gas, and methane, and benzene... (and dispersant)



Special Potato Report: Amazing pictures and narration in this video.

Mommy.