Is Bitcoin A Ponzi Scheme? Point By Point Analysis
Feb. 09, 2021 9:30 AM ETBitcoin USD (BTC-USD)GBTCGLDXLF148 Comments57 Likes
Summary
- Bitcoin is sometimes called a Ponzi scheme, so this article compared the Bitcoin protocol to an official list of Ponzi characteristics to see if it holds up.
- Bitcoin does not meet most of the criteria for a Ponzi scheme.
- However, an investor must assess the ongoing probability of Bitcoin failing or succeeding in displacing other stores of value and payment systems.
One of the concerns I’ve seen aimed at Bitcoin is the claim that it’s a Ponzi scheme. The argument suggests that because the Bitcoin network is continually reliant on new people buying in, that eventually it will collapse in price as new buyers are exhausted.
So, this article takes a serious look at the concern by comparing and contrasting Bitcoin to systems that have Ponzi-like characteristics, to see if the claim holds up.
The short answer is that Bitcoin does not meet the definition of a Ponzi scheme in either narrow or broad sense, but let’s dive in to see why that’s the case.
Defining a Ponzi Scheme
To start with tackling the topic of Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme, we need a definition.
Here is how the US Securities and Exchange Commission defines one:
A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often promise to invest your money and generate high returns with little or no risk. But in many Ponzi schemes, the fraudsters do not invest the money. Instead, they use it to pay those who invested earlier and may keep some for themselves.
With little or no legitimate earnings, Ponzi schemes require a constant flow of new money to survive. When it becomes hard to recruit new investors, or when large numbers of existing investors cash out, these schemes tend to collapse.
Ponzi schemes are named after Charles Ponzi, who duped investors in the 1920s with a postage stamp speculation scheme.
They further go on to list red flags to look out for:
Many Ponzi schemes share common characteristics. Look for these warning signs:
High returns with little or no risk. Every investment carries some degree of risk, and investments yielding higher returns typically involve more risk. Be highly suspicious of any “guaranteed” investment opportunity.
Overly consistent returns. Investments tend to go up and down over time. Be skeptical about an investment that regularly generates positive returns regardless of overall market conditions.
Unregistered investments. Ponzi schemes typically involve investments that are not registered with the SEC or with state regulators. Registration is important because it provides investors with access to information about the company’s management, products, services, and finances.
Unlicensed sellers. Federal and state securities laws require investment professionals and firms to be licensed or registered. Most Ponzi schemes involve unlicensed individuals or unregistered firms.
Secretive, complex strategies. Avoid investments if you don’t understand them or can’t get complete information about them.
Issues with paperwork. Account statement errors may be a sign that funds are not being invested as promised.
Difficulty receiving payments. Be suspicious if you don’t receive a payment or have difficulty cashing out. Ponzi scheme promoters sometimes try to prevent participants from cashing out by offering even higher returns for staying put.
I think that’s a great set of information to work with. We can see how many of those attributes, if any, Bitcoin has.
Bitcoin’s Launch Process
Before we get into comparing Bitcoin point-by-point to the above list, we can start with a recap of how Bitcoin was launched.
In August 2008, someone identifying himself as Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin.org.
Two months later in October 2008, Satoshi released the Bitcoin white paper. This document explained how the technology would work, including the solution to the double-spending problem. As you can see from the link, it was written in the format and style of an academic research paper, since it was presenting a major technical breakthrough that provided a solution for well-known computer science challenges related to digital scarcity. It contained no promises of enrichment or returns.
Then, three months later in January 2009, Satoshi published the initial Bitcoin software. In the custom genesis block of the blockchain, which contains no spendable Bitcoin, he provided a time-stamped article headline about bank bailouts from The Times of London, likely to prove that there was no pre-mining and to set the tone for the project. From there, it took him six days to finish things and mine block 1, which contained the first 50 spendable bitcoins, and he released the Bitcoin source code that day on January 9th. By January 10th, Hal Finney publicly tweeted that he was running the Bitcoin software as well, and right from the beginning, Satoshi was testing the system by sending bitcoins to Hal.
Interestingly, since Satoshi showed how to do it with the white paper more than two months before launching the open source Bitcoin software himself, technically someone could have used the newfound knowledge to launch a version before him. It would have been unlikely, due to Satoshi’s big head start in figuring all of this out and understanding it at a deep level, but it was technically possible. He gave away the key technological breakthrough before he launched the first version of the project. Between the publication of the white paper and the launch of the software, he answered questions and explained his choices for his white paper to several other cryptographers on an email list in response to their critiques, almost like an academic thesis defense, and several of them could have been technical enough to “steal” the project from him, if they were less skeptical.
After launch, a set of equipment that is widely believed to belong to Satoshi remained a large Bitcoin miner throughout the first year. Mining is necessary to keep verifying transactions for the network, and bitcoins had no quoted dollar price at that time. He gradually reduced his mining over time, as mining became more distributed across the network. There are nearly 1 million bitcoins that are believed to belong to Satoshi that he mined through Bitcoin’s early period and that he has never moved from their initial address. He could have cashed out at any point with billions of dollars in profit, but so far has not, over a decade into the project’s life. It’s not known if he is still alive, but other than some early coins for test transactions, the bulk of his coins haven’t moved.
Not long after, he transferred ownership of his website domains to others, and ever since, Bitcoin has been self-sustaining among a revolving development community with no input from Satoshi.
Bitcoin is open source, and is distributed around the world. The blockchain is public, transparent, verifiable, auditable, and analyzable. Firms can do analytics of the entire blockchain and see which bitcoins are moving or remaining in place in various addresses. An open source full node can be run on a basic home computer, and can audit Bitcoin’s entire money supply and other metrics.
With that in mind, we can then compare Bitcoin to the red flags of being a Ponzi scheme.
Investment Returns: Not Promised
Satoshi never promised any investment returns, let alone high investment returns or consistent investment returns. In fact, Bitcoin was known for the first decade of its existence as being extremely high-volatility speculation. For the first year and a half, Bitcoin had no quotable price, and after that, it had a very volatile price.
The online writings from Satoshi still exist, and he barely ever talked about financial gain. He mostly wrote about technical aspects, about freedom, about the problems of the modern banking system, and so forth. Satoshi wrote mostly like a programmer, occasionally like an economist, and never like a salesman.
We have to search pretty deeply to find instances where he discussed Bitcoin potentially becoming valuable. When he did talk about the potential value or price of a Bitcoin, he spoke very matter-of-factly in regards to how to categorize it, whether it would be inflationary or deflationary, and admitted a ton of variance for how the project could turn out. Digging around for Satoshi’s quotes on the price of value of a Bitcoin, here’s what I found:
The fact that new coins are produced means the money supply increases by a planned amount, but this does not necessarily result in inflation. If the supply of money increases at the same rate that the number of people using it increases, prices remain stable. If it does not increase as fast as demand, there will be deflation and early holders of money will see its value increase.
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It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once it gets bootstrapped, there are so many applications if you could effortlessly pay a few cents to a website as easily as dropping coins in a vending machine.
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In this sense, it’s more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.
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Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you’ve suggested, by people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange. (I would definitely want some) Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it. I think the traditional qualifications for money were written with the assumption that there are so many competing objects in the world that are scarce, an object with the automatic bootstrap of intrinsic value will surely win out over those without intrinsic value. But if there were nothing in the world with intrinsic value that could be used as money, only scarce but no intrinsic value, I think people would still take up something. (I’m using the word scarce here to only mean limited potential supply).
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A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.
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I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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Bitcoins have no dividend or potential future dividend, therefore not like a stock. More like a collectible or commodity.
–Quotes by Satoshi Nakamoto
Promising unusually high or consistent investment returns is a common red flag for being a Ponzi scheme, and with Satoshi’s original Bitcoin, there was none of that.
Over time, Bitcoin investors have often predicted very high prices (and so far those predictions have been correct), but the project itself from inception did not have those attributes.
Open Source: The Opposite of Secrecy
Most Ponzi schemes rely on secrecy. If the investors understood that an investment they owned was actually a Ponzi scheme, they would try to pull their money out immediately. This secrecy prevents the market from appropriately pricing the investment until the secret gets found out.
For example, investors in Bernie Madoff’s scheme thought they owned a variety of assets. In reality, earlier investor outflows were just being paid back from new investor inflows, rather than money being made from actual investments. The investments listed on their statements were fake, and for any of those clients, it would be nearly impossible to verify that they are fake.
Bitcoin, however, works on precisely the opposite set of principles. As a distributed piece of open source software that requires majority consensus to change, every line of code is known, and no central authority can change it. A key tenet of Bitcoin is to verify rather than to trust. Software to run a full node can be freely downloaded and run on a normal PC, and can audit the entire blockchain and the entire money supply. It relies on no website, no critical data center, and no corporate structure.
For this reason, there are no “issues with paperwork” or “difficulty receiving payments”, referencing some of the SEC red flags of a Ponzi. The entire point of Bitcoin is to not rely on any third parties; it is immutable and self-verifiable. Bitcoin can only be moved with the private key associated with a certain address, and if you use your private key to move your bitcoins, there is nobody who can stop you from doing so.
There are of course some bad actors in the surrounding ecosystem. People relying on others to hold their private keys (rather than doing so themselves) have sometimes lost their coins due to bad custodians, but not because the core Bitcoin software failed. Third-party exchanges can be fraudulent or can be hacked. Phishing schemes or other frauds can trick people into revealing their private keys or account information. But these are not associated with Bitcoin itself, and as people use Bitcoin, they must ensure they understand how the system works to avoid falling for scams in the ecosystem.