Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

[stickdog99]

I spoke to a respected scientist last night at a social gathering. He is actually on the record predicting a potential flu virus emerging from large scale farm animal operations, and he said that he continues to be very alarmed at the rapid transmission of H1N1 and the potential for mutation and resistance in advance of flu season. Just wanted to throw that in there.

And I got this via a google alert this afternoon:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Swine Flu May Be Human Error, Scientist Says; WHO Probes Claim

By Jason Gale and Simeon Bennett

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization is investigating an Australian researcher’s claim that the swine flu virus circling the globe may have been created as a result of human error.

Adrian Gibbs, 75, who collaborated on research that led to the development of Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu drug, said in an interview today that he intends to publish a report suggesting the new strain may have accidentally evolved in eggs scientists use to grow viruses and drugmakers use to make vaccines. Gibbs said that he came to his conclusion as part of an effort to trace the virus’s origins by analyzing its genetic blueprint.

The World Health Organization received the study last weekend and is reviewing it, Keiji Fukuda, the agency’s assistant director-general of health security and environment, said in an interview yesterday. Gibbs, who has studied germ evolution for four decades, is one of the first scientists to analyze the genetic makeup of the virus that was identified three weeks ago in Mexico and threatens to touch off the first flu pandemic since 1968.

A virus that resulted from lab experimentation or vaccine production may indicate a greater need for security, Fukuda said. By pinpointing the source of the virus, scientists also may better understand the microbe’s potential for spreading and causing illness, Gibbs said.

Caution

“The sooner we get to grips with where it’s come from, the safer things might become,” Gibbs said in a telephone interview from Canberra today. “It could be a mistake” that occurred at a vaccine production facility. ...

Gibbs said his analysis supports research by scientists including Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, who found the new strain is the product of two distinct lineages of influenza that have circulated among swine in North America and Europe for more than a decade.

In addition, his research found the rate of genetic mutation in the new virus outpaced that of the most closely related viruses found in pigs, suggesting it evolved outside of swine, Gibbs said. ...

Gibbs said he has no evidence that the swine-derived virus was a deliberate, man-made product. “I don’t think it could be a malignant thing,” he said. “It’s much more likely that some random thing has put these two viruses together.”

Why would this be more likely? Because people are generally beneficent as opposed to randomness which is generally malignant?

[Trifecta]

FWIW:

[quote]
Nicotine, Anti-inflammatory H1N1 Cure

Smokers conspiracy Bingo. Another key indicator of smoker fascism perchance?

[mentalgongfu2]

Smokers conspiracy Bingo. Another key indicator of smoker fascism perchance?

These days, I find the anti-smoking lobby is at least as comfortable with lying as the pro-smoking lobby, (i.e. the JEL campaign) and decidedly more fascist (or if that term is too strong/inaccurate, the anti-smoking crowd is certainly inclined to impose their will on everyone else.) Not content with banning smoking in bars and restaurants and limiting the rights of what business owners can allow or not allow in their establishments, they have now moved on to outdoor venues. FFS, in Iowa, the anti-smoking law prohibits one from smoking at the county landfill, lest the smoke pollute the pristine air that surrounds, and the [albeit flawed] concept of letting the free-market rule no longer applies when it comes to tobacco. Nothing has ever prevented non-smoking venues from making money hand over fist other than the desire of the clientele to smoke. And Lord help you if you try to light up near a coal-burning utility or pass stricter regulations on mercury emissions.

Hey, we might get cancer, like much of the population that doesn't smoke, but at least we're potentially better protected from swine flu.

[chiggerbit]

Marshall County, Iowa, May 13

http://www.timesrepublican.com/page/con ... l?nav=5005

"

....Even though those patients who do not fall in the high risk category can no longer be tested locally for H1N1, the hospital wants to track who these patients have come in contact with.

Testing locally is no longer being done because the state wants to focus its resources on other areas of Iowa where the flu is just starting to spread."

http://www.timesrepublican.com/page/con ... l?nav=5005

:Student attendance is moving back up to near regular numbers at the Marshalltown Community School District after being down nearly 10 percent when schools reopened last week after being closed for three days due to the H1N1 virus.

Marshalltown Superintendent Dr. Marvin Wade reported attendance district-wide was at 91 percent Tuesday, which is down slightly from the usual 95 percent attendance rate.

"Things are going well," Wade said. "Staff, students they seem to be comfortable."

He reported 18 staff members were out Tuesday of the more than 800 district employees but said he has not heard of a confirmed H1N1 case among the staff......"

[beeline]

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/20090513_A_flu_nightmare__without_the_flu.html

Posted on Wed, May. 13, 2009

A flu nightmare, without the flu

By Don Sapatkin

Inquirer Staff Writer

Flu fears in Latin America turned Pete Sukosky's benign case of pink eye into a travel story from hell.

Worried that he represented the first flu case in Panama, he said, authorities alternately handcuffed him, denied him phone calls, and paraded him in front of reporters. "Homesick gringo escapes hospital," one headline screamed.

He turned out to be negative.

Sukosky is a seasoned traveler, fluent in Spanish, and served in the Peace Corps in Honduras.

"I think I was a victim of this sort of hysteria that has been sowed about swine flu," he said yesterday, back on the job as a drug-company sales representative in South Jersey. "Honestly, I love Panama City."

He also concedes having played some role in what happened - leaving the hospital (hence the headline) and kicking a table (hence the handcuffs), both out of fear and frustration.

Swine flu was inciting fears worldwide on April 29 when Sukosky arrived in Panama after a week's vacation with friends in the Colombian coastal city of Cartagena.

In Philadelphia, the story of a traveler en route from Mexico to Canada had led newscasts two nights before when she arrived at the airport here with flulike symptoms. The woman was later found not to have influenza A (H1N1). In Panama City, many people at the airport were wearing masks.

After spending the night, Sukosky, 32, woke up with the swelling and redness of conjunctivitis.

"I showed up at the ticket counter, and when I took off my sunglasses [the agent] said, 'You look terrible.' " He was directed to an airport clinic, where drops were put in his eyes. The clinic told him that he could get more medication at Santo Tomas Hospital, a major public hospital.

There, he paid the $2 fee to be examined and get eyedrops.

"First they were asking me where I had come from, I had a sore throat - I had been smoking Cuban cigars - and then all of a sudden they wanted to do a swab test," said Sukosky, who lives in Maple Shade.

They told him that swine flu had been confirmed in New Jersey.

He waited six hours for results that he'd been told would take 30 minutes, went out to eat, and was called at his hotel to return to the hospital, where he waited two or three hours more.

"Finally a doctor comes in and says you tested positive for influenza A" - the broad category that includes many seasonal flus and H1N1 - "and you have to stay overnight" for a definitive test, Sukosky said.

When he saw a nurse locking a nearby door and pocketing a key, he left again for his hotel. "I knew I wasn't sick," he said. "I was a little bit scared. I truly thought they might just be playing with me for being an American."

The health authorities - clad in scrubs, masks, and goggles - military and police showed up in the morning, along with reporters and cameramen.

"The first thing I said is, 'I'll go, but I want to call my family in the States,' " Sukosky said, but he said he was told he could not.

When the military blocked a public phone at the hospital, preventing him from calling the U.S. Embassy, he got angry. "I was raising my voice, but essentially it was fear."

He kicked a table. Glass vials fell. Handcuffs came out, and he was taken through admissions in the front of the hospital, where "every patient covered their mouth and took off running," Sukosky said, an event that he believes was staged for the news media.

He was eventually allowed to use a phone. He called his mother in Avondale, Chester County, who called the U.S. State Department.

He was given what he believes was Ativan, an antianxiety drug, and was out for the night.

Embassy officials were en route to the hospital, responding to the Panamanian government's report of an American with swine flu, when they got the message that his mother was seeking their help, he said.

Asked by a reporter about the case, the State Department declined to release details, citing patient confidentiality. A spokesman did confirm that an official who Sukosky said visited him at the hospital works in the embassy.

Hospital officials could not be reached.

The definitive test for H1N1 came back negative, and Sukosky was released. He arrived home May 5.

In his last hours at Santo Tomas Hospital, Sukosky was able to talk at length with the medical staff and a police officer about his frustrations, especially the denied phone calls. "In the end I think they were pretty sympathetic," he said, and understood that "I was far from home and I had a family that was worrying about me."

He still loves Panama.

Would he do anything differently?

"I would definitely enable my cell phone to work overseas," he said, rather than depending on access to a public phone. "And I would definitely have the phone numbers for the embassy as well.

"There was a lot of hype about swine flu," he said. "I just got caught up in it."

[whipstitch]

Swine Flu May Be Human Error; WHO Investigates Claim
By Jason Gale and Simeon Bennett

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization is investigating a claim by an Australian researcher that the swine flu virus circling the globe may have been created as a result of human error.

Adrian Gibbs, 75, who collaborated on research that led to the development of Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu drug, said in an interview that he intends to publish a report suggesting the new strain may have accidentally evolved in eggs scientists use to grow viruses and drugmakers use to make vaccines. Gibbs said he came to his conclusion as part of an effort to trace the virus’s origins by analyzing its genetic blueprint.

“One of the simplest explanations is that it’s a laboratory escape,” Gibbs said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “But there are lots of others.”

The World Health Organization received the study last weekend and is reviewing it, Keiji Fukuda, the agency’s assistant director-general of health security and environment, said in an interview May 11. Gibbs, who has studied germ evolution for four decades, is one of the first scientists to analyze the genetic makeup of the virus that was identified three weeks ago in Mexico and threatens to touch off the first flu pandemic since 1968.

A virus that resulted from lab experimentation or vaccine production may indicate a greater need for security, Fukuda said. By pinpointing the source of the virus, scientists also may better understand the microbe’s potential for spreading and causing illness, Gibbs said.

Possible Mistake

“The sooner we get to grips with where it’s come from, the safer things might become,” Gibbs said by phone from Canberra yesterday. “It could be a mistake” that occurred at a vaccine production facility or the virus could have jumped from a pig to another mammal or a bird before reaching humans, he said.

Gibbs and two colleagues analyzed the publicly available sequences of hundreds of amino acids coded by each of the flu virus’s eight genes. He said he aims to submit his three-page paper today for publication in a medical journal.

“You really want a very sober assessment” of the science behind the claim, Fukuda said May 11 at the WHO’s Geneva headquarters.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta has received the report and has decided there is no evidence to support Gibbs’s conclusion, said Nancy Cox, director of the agency’s influenza division. She said since researchers don’t have samples of swine flu viruses from South America and Africa, where the new strain may have evolved, those regions can’t be ruled out as natural sources for the new flu.

No Evidence

“We are interested in the origins of this new influenza virus,” Cox said. “But contrary to what the author has found, when we do the comparisons that are most relevant, there is no evidence that this virus was derived by passage in eggs.”

The WHO’s collaborative influenza research centers, which includes the CDC, and sites in Memphis, Melbourne, London and Tokyo, were asked by the international health agency to review the study over the weekend, Fukuda said. The request was extended to scientists at the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, the World Organization for Animal Health in Paris, as well as the WHO’s influenza network, he said.

“My guess is that the picture should be a lot clearer over the next few days,” Fukuda said. “We have asked a lot of people to look at this.”

Virus Expert

Gibbs wrote or co-authored more than 250 scientific publications on viruses during his 39-year career at the Australian National University in Canberra, according to biographical information on the university’s Web site.

Swine flu has infected 5,251 people in 30 countries so far, killing 61, according to WHO data. Scientists are trying to determine whether the virus will mutate and become more deadly if it spreads to the Southern Hemisphere and back. Flu pandemics occur when a strain of the disease to which few people have immunity evolves and spreads.

Gibbs said his analysis supports research by scientists including Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, who found the new strain is the product of two distinct lineages of influenza that have circulated among swine in North America and Europe for more than a decade.

In addition, Gibbs said his research found the rate of genetic mutation in the new virus was about three times faster than that of the most closely related viruses found in pigs, suggesting it evolved outside of swine.

Gene Evolution

“Whatever speeded up the evolution of these genes happened at least seven or eight years ago, so one wonders, why hasn’t it been found?” Gibbs said today.

Some scientists have speculated that the 1977 Russian flu, the most recent global outbreak, began when a virus escaped from a laboratory.

Identifying the source of new flu viruses is difficult without finding the exact strain in an animal or bird “reservoir,” said Jennifer McKimm-Breschkin, a virologist at the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization in Melbourne.

“If you can’t find an exact match, the best you can do is compare sequences,” she said. “Similarities may give an indication of a possible source, but this remains theoretical.”

The World Organization for Animal Health, which represents chief veterinary officers from 174 countries, received the Gibbs paper and is working with the WHO on an assessment, said Maria Zampaglione, a spokeswoman.

Genetic Patterns

The WHO wants to know whether any evidence that the virus may have been developed in a laboratory can be corroborated and whether there are other explanations for its particular genetic patterns, according to Fukuda.

“These things have to be dealt with straight on,” he said. “If someone makes a hypothesis, then you test it and you let scientific process take its course.”

Gibbs said he has no evidence that the swine-derived virus was a deliberate, man-made product.

“I don’t think it could be a malignant thing,” he said. “It’s much more likely that some random thing has put these two viruses together.”

Gibbs, who spent most of his academic career studying plant viruses, said his major contribution to the study of influenza occurred in 1975, while collaborating with scientists Graeme Laver and Robert Webster in research that led to the development of the anti-flu medicines Tamiflu and Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline Plc.

Bird Poo

“We were out on one of the Barrier Reef islands, off Australia, catching birds for the flu in them, and I happened to be the guy who caught the best,” Gibbs said. The bird he got “yielded the poo from which was isolated the influenza isolate strain from which all the work on Tamiflu and Relenza started.”

Gibbs, who says he studies the evolution of flu viruses as a “retirement hobby,” expects his research to be challenged by other scientists.

“This is how science progresses,” he said. “Somebody comes up with a wild idea, and then they all pounce on it and kick you to death, and then you start off on another silly idea.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Gale in Geneva at j.gale@bloomberg.net; Simeon Bennett in Singapore at sbennett9@bloomberg.net.

[whipstitch]

[url=http://upswing.newsvine.com/_news/2009/04/26/2735113-donald-rumsfelds-swine-flu-vaccine-tamiflu-could-paralyze-or-kill-you-while-it-makes-investors-rich]Donald Rumsfeld's Swine Flu Vaccine "Tamiflu" Could Paralyze or Kill You, While It Makes Investors Rich
[/url]
OP-ED FROM MAY 8, 2006
Rumsfeld and Scoundrel Time with the Pharmaceuticals

by Stuart Markoff
(Baltimore Chronicle)

While the Administration faces accusations that it overhyped post-9/11 threats to national security, the media have been slow to stitch together a similar pattern in Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's connection with the pharmaceutical industry, a connection that built his personal fortune on a series of panics stretching back to the mid 1970's.

Most recently, the panic over avian flu has been fanned almost universally by news outlets, despite expert caution that the virus itself has yet to mutate into any form transmittible between humans or between birds and humans.

Nonetheless, the Government has stockpiled two billion dollars worth of Tamiflu. This drug was developed a decade back by Gilead, of which Rumsfeld was the CEO, the company then transferring all marketing and sale rights to the Roche Company.

Earlier, the current Secretary of Defense successfully marketed aspartame, a suspected carcinogen, as "Nutrasweet," on which he earned some ten million. Before that, he exploited scare tactics on the swine flu, to the extent that President Ford ordered massive inoculations in 1976. When fifty people died from the drug, its administration was suspended, but not before Mr. Rumsfeld pocketed an estimated five million.

The avian flu scare is being handled similarly to the infamous "Swine Flu Affair" during the Ford Administration.

Much of the swine flu story and its dubious provenance has been documented by a Johns Hopkins medical professor, Arthur Silverstein, in his book Pure Politics and Impure Science, subtitled The Swine Flu Affair (JHU Press,1984). His account emphasizes how President Ford's desire to win election on his own rendered him susceptible to pressure from the pharmaceuticals to inoculate all Americans, 220 million people, against the Swine flu despite only one clearly documented fatality.

It became a $135 million program which had reached 40 million before the accumulation of fatalities and a linkage to several cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome or paralysis saw suspension of the vaccine. The pharmaceutical companies had pre-arranged for the government to assume any liabilities.

Aspartame had such a mixed record in various lab tests that the FDA refused approval several times. However, with the election of Ronald Reagan, Arthur Hayes Hull, Sr., a friend of Rumsfeld, became a commissioner on the FDA. Another crony appointment secured the votes necessary for approval. Today a $330 million class action lawsuit under RICO provisions mentions Rumsfeld as the CEO of G.D. Searle Company in 1977.

The current scare, commented NBC News' chief science and health correspondent Robert Bazell just this past February, closely resembles the 1970's scare, except this time around the price tag in Bush's request for funding is $7.1 billion.

[chiggerbit]

The opposite is happening here in Iowa, beeline. It's like there's a blanket on the flu news. The one Des Moines Register article is the only one I can find, outside of Marshall County itself, that has reported that there's a shortage of testing supplies and that few new tests are being done. I've checked all the local papers, and zip. They're all reporting the "official" number of 56 H1N1 positives, as if that's all there is, and no word that there are likely over 300 probables in Marshall County alone in the last 13 days , and that most aren't being tested now.

[beeline]

I agree, notice this article is about a guy that was detained, but didn't have the flu. I also found interesting that he thought the his handuffing incident was staged.

[chiggerbit]

I agree, notice this article is about a guy that was detained, but didn't have the flu. I also found interesting that he thought the his handuffing incident was staged.

I am beginning to think the Wizard himself could strip at the local farmers market and announce he has the flu....... and get ignored. "Don't you think you picked that radish a little early?"

[chiggerbit]

Ok, something's going on. If this article is any indication, someone is trying to keep a lid on this flu story. Remember, I've already linked to reliable articles above that state that Marshall County is now not being allowed to test all cases of suspected swine flue due to the international shortage of testing supplies, so the state is reserving testing supplies for other expected outbreaks outside of Marshall County, except for the most vulnerable patients, and that health professionals in Marshall County think the numbers in their county are really closer to 300, all since May 1st.

Surely this article can't be pure incompetence? It's not an out-and-out lie--the confirmed numbers are stablizing, but that's because the tests aren't being done. This is getting really weird.

http://www.radioiowa.com/gestalt/go.cfm ... 51599C1284


Number of H1N1 cases steadily decreasing in Iowa (5/12/09)

Number of H1N1 cases steadily decreasing in Iowa
Tuesday, May 12, 2009, 8:56 AM
By Pat Curtis

Iowa's rate of confirmed H-1-N-1 flu cases is steadily decreasing. All suspected cases of the virus are now being tested at the University of Iowa Hygienic Lab.Lab director Chris Atchison expects the cases to drop through the summer.

"Certainly the number of tests that we're doing are going down," Atchison said. "It's difficult to say what the actual number is out in the community at this point. You'd also expect that as people get outside we'll have less transmission so I think we are expecting the number of cases are going to go down as the spring and summer unfolds."

The total number of confirmed H-1-N-1 cases in Iowa climbed to 56 on Monday, up from 43 on Saturday. The C.D.C has confirmed 6 cases to bring the state total over 60. Atchison says the flu outbreak is not over but there are signs it's not as bad as once feared.

"It was a fine line we walked between being really observant as to exactly what is this - without panicking people. I don't think people panicked and I think that's a good thing but I do think people were vigilant," Atchison said.

No Iowans have become sick enough with the disease to require hospitalization. Atchison says the flu strain could've been more dangerous.

"This could have been extremely deadly," Atchison said. "Remember the early reports from Mexico suggested a pretty lethal strain." The U-of-I Hygienic Lab has tested nearly 1,000 specimens for the H-1-N-1 virus.

[chiggerbit]

I take it back--THIS is a lie:

All suspected cases of the virus are now being tested at the University of Iowa Hygienic Lab

[chiggerbit]

I'm just appalled. There are people with other health issues who would take active steps to not be exposed to this virus if they knew the truth, people who might die due to complications of their other conditions if they caught this flu. The article above is criminal.

[chiggerbit]

Posted at the Marshalltown Medical and Surgical Center:

http://www.everydaychampions.org/

".......New H1N1 Testing Guidelines

Marshall County testing guidelines from the CDC have moved to an accelerated phase, which means that they consider the virus is well established in our community. Under the guidance of the Iowa Department of Public Health, Marshall County will now test only those that are hospitalized, or those that are considered “high risk” for complications. According to the Iowa Department of Public Health, Marshall County health care providers should only test patients with an influenza like illness who within 7 days of onset of symptoms have any of the following:

- Are currently hospitalized with influenza-like illness OR
- Are at high risk for developing complications of influenza

Influenza like illness is defined as fever (temperature of 100 degrees F {37.8 degrees C} or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat in the absence of a KNOWN causes other than influenza.

Groups at high risk for seasonal influenza complications include:


- Children less than 5 years old;
- Person aged 50 years or older;
- Pregnant women;
- Children and adolescents (less than 18 years) who are receiving long-term aspirin therapy and who might be at risk for Reye’s syndrome after influenza virus infection;
- Adults and children who have chronic pulmonary, cardiovascular, hepatic, hematological, neurologic, neuromuscular, or metabolic disorders;
- Adults and children who have immunosuppression (including immunosuppression caused by medications or by HIV);
- Residents of nursing homes and other chronic-care facilities

This decreased testing will allow the state to use its limited lab resources to establish the presence of the virus in other counties in the state that are beginning to experience what Marshall County has experienced over the past week.


Treatment for patients presenting to the flu clinic is the decision of the Emergency Room physician. Federal recommendations are that those in the high risk categories are treated. Between 5 and 50 years of age, medication has been discouraged in order to reduce the chance of the virus becoming resistant. The ER physician will consider other illnesses present and the intensity of the symptoms before treating."

[chiggerbit]

Not sure that I buy this theory. Iowa springs and summers are terribly humid, and this flu is thriving here quite well. Go to link to see graphs:

http://www.stormx.com/agriculture/weath ... ariations/

Amid developing global concern surrounding the possibility of a “swine flu” epidemic, scientists at Storm Exchange are examining the role that weather conditions may play in the spread of the disease in the U.S. It has long been recognized that the influenza virus survives and spreads more effectively in the winter months. However, this seasonal difference in flu incidence is related to humidity contrasts between summer and winter, rather than temperature differences. This was demonstrated in a recent study by Oregon State University researchers1, who showed that the low humidity of wintertime air, both indoors and outdoors, explains the higher incidence of flu in the winter. In particular, the “absolute” humidity of the air is the controlling factor, rather than the “relative” humidity that is sometimes quoted in weather reports.

The images below depict the normal value of the absolute humidity across the U.S. in the summer and winter months. It is clear that the absolute humidity is much lower in all U.S. locations in the winter than in the summer, which favors the more effective spread of the flu virus in winter. As spring advances this year, rapidly increasing humidity in the eastern half of the U.S. will help to reduce flu transmission rates in comparison to wintertime values. However, the humidity usually remains very low in the Western states even in the summer months. Therefore it is possible that the “swine flu” will thrive and spread more rapidly in western U.S. population centers than in eastern locations.


The effect of humidity variations on flu occurrence can be confirmed by examining the typical difference in flu incidence rates between summer and winter across the U.S. For this purpose, estimates of flu activity since 2003 were obtained from Google Flu Trends. In this dataset, the incidence of influenza-like illness is tracked using large numbers of Google search queries; this method of detecting flu occurrence has been shown to be accurate2.

In the eastern U.S., and especially in the central U.S., the difference in humidity between summer and winter is large. Across a similar geographic extent from Minnesota to the Carolinas, the summer incidence of flu is between 12 % and 18 % of the winter rate. However, in the western U.S., the summer humidity is not much higher than the humidity in winter; this is reflected in summer flu rates that are 18-23 % of the winter rate. Thus the high summer humidity in the East contributes to a larger summertime decline in flu rates, but in the West the low humidity permits slightly more summertime flu.

Despite the slight preference for summer flu occurrence in the dry West, however, the “swine flu” outbreak remains a serious concern in all locations globally. Storm Exchange will continue to carefully monitor the extent of the outbreak and its implications for agricultural markets.