Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

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Postby chiggerbit » Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:08 pm

Meanwhile, over the border in Missouri:

http://tinyurl.com/mfb9n7

Missouri hospitals report a sharp rise in cases
FROM NEWS SERVICES
09/04/2009

Missouri hospitals are reporting a sharp rise in the number of patients with flu-like illnesses in the past week. And a top health official says that while it’s too early to call the numbers a trend, it’s a reminder to take steps to help stop the flu from spreading.

The Missouri health department said Thursday that flu-like cases accounted for nearly 4 percent of all illnesses handled by hospitals in recent days — up from 2 percent on
typical days.

In southeast Missouri, the department says flu-like cases account for nearly 14 percent of all illnesses treated recently at hospitals....
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Postby chiggerbit » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:46 pm

UPI is owned by sun Myung Moon, which I don't always find credible, but I'd think something like this could be verified:


http://media.www.quchronicle.com/media/ ... 0829.shtml
........According to a recent United Press International article, 55 percent of the 165 U.S. colleges tracking H1N1 say they have infected students....
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Postby chiggerbit » Tue Sep 15, 2009 12:27 am

I wish they'd make up their minds:

http://tinyurl.com/qo5rlg

.
...The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been telling people to stay home from work and school and avoid contact with others until a day after their fever breaks. The new research suggests they may need to be careful for longer — especially at home where the risk of spreading the germ is highest.

Swine flu also appears to be contagious longer than ordinary seasonal flu, several experts said.

"This study shows you're not contagious for a day or two. You're probably contagious for about a week," said Gaston De Serres, a scientist at the Institute of Public Health in Quebec.....




...."It's probably realistic that this virus sheds much longer than seasonal flu," said Dr. Jonathan McCullers, an infectious diseases specialist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.

Three reports suggest this is so. De Serres and other researchers in Canada took nose and throat swabs from 43 patients with lab-confirmed flu and dozens of other sick family members.

On the eighth day after symptoms first appeared, 19 to 75 percent showed signs of virus remaining in their noses, depending on the type of test used.

"This proportion appears to be very big, and it is," but it's not clear how much virus is needed to actually spread flu, so the lower number is more reliable, he said.

Dr. David C. Lye reported on 70 patients treated at Tan Tock Seng Hospital in Singapore. Using a very sensitive test to detect virus in the nose or throat, he found that 80 percent had it five days after symptoms began, and 40 percent seven days after. Some still harbored virus as long as 16 days later. How soon they started on antiviral medicines such as Tamiflu made a difference in how much virus was found, but not whether virus was present at all.

A third report came from Dr. Guillermo Ruiz-Palacios of the National Institutes of Medical Science and Nutrition in Mexico, where the first cases of swine flu were detected.

Infected people "shed the virus for a very, very long time," often for more than a week after the start of symptoms, he told the conference. This was especially true of obese people, and patients who started on medicines longer than two days after symptoms first appeared....
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Postby Jeff » Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:45 pm

Chiefs furious after body bags sent to reserves

Updated Wed. Sep. 16 2009 9:18 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

Opposition critics and First Nations leaders are slamming the government after Health Canada shipped dozens of body bags to aboriginal communities in Manitoba that have been hit hard by swine flu.

Chiefs said the body bags were sent to a handful of northern communities where dozens had to be airlifted earlier this year.

"If this is preparedness, they're sending the wrong message to our communities. Who would do such a thing?" Grand Chief David Harper, representing Manitoba's northern First Nations, asked Wednesday.

"It's like sending body bags to Afghanistan for our soldiers. We've been asking for proper health institutions, proper health equipment. Instead, what do we get? Body bags. That's totally unacceptable."

...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories
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Postby chiggerbit » Wed Sep 16, 2009 11:04 pm

I just heard from two of my kids tonight, saying that they are pretty sure they've had the flu--one just getting over it, and the other a couple of weeks ago, both likely having gotten it from work. Both were mild cases.
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Postby monster » Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:38 am

chiggerbit wrote:I just heard from two of my kids tonight, saying that they are pretty sure they've had the flu--one just getting over it, and the other a couple of weeks ago, both likely having gotten it from work. Both were mild cases.


I think I've had it too - no way to know for sure, but I had something last week, and I rarely get sick.
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Postby chiggerbit » Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:34 pm

Check this out:

http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/dpp/n...s_Sept_22_2009

Flu Cases Spike in Minnesota Schools
123 Minnesota schools report kids home with flu

Published : Tuesday, 22 Sep 2009, 3:08 PM CDT

ST. PAUL, Minn. - The Minnesota Department of Health said 123 schools reported having students sick with suspected flu, up from 67 schools on Monday. [In other words, in one day--chig]

MDH spokesman Buddy Ferguson said 50 schools around Minnesota are reporting 5 percent or more of their students are out with flu-like illness and 73 schools say that three or more elementary school students from the same classroom are out.

Among the school hit hardest by the flu is Eastview Elementary in Lakeville , where 175 students, or 28 percent of the student body, stayed home sick. Monday. Of those students, six were diagnosed with H1N1 flu.


The health department said it fully expected the number of flu cases to increase as student returned to school after summer break.

MDH said Tuesday the virus is not at a point where they need to tell students not to shake hands. Health experts are considering options for faith-based communities and sporting events , but nothing has been written or decided.

The health department is planning to set up a website in the coming days for H1N1 flu information and school resources.
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Postby StarmanSkye » Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:15 pm

So, without a culture-test taking several days, how do you distinguish between seasonal influenza and apparently manmade Swine Flu? Which symptoms are the give-away?

I'd almost be willing to wager the odds of correctly calling a given sickness Swine Flu instead of influenza are 50%.
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Postby chiggerbit » Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:18 pm

Remember when I posted this theory on about page 24?

http://www.stormx.com/agriculture/weath ... ariations/

Amid developing global concern surrounding the possibility of a “swine flu” epidemic, scientists at Storm Exchange are examining the role that weather conditions may play in the spread of the disease in the U.S. It has long been recognized that the influenza virus survives and spreads more effectively in the winter months. However, this seasonal difference in flu incidence is related to humidity contrasts between summer and winter, rather than temperature differences. This was demonstrated in a recent study by Oregon State University researchers1, who showed that the low humidity of wintertime air, both indoors and outdoors, explains the higher incidence of flu in the winter. In particular, the “absolute” humidity of the air is the controlling factor, rather than the “relative” humidity that is sometimes quoted in weather report.....


Well, I just got to thinking how weird it was that the Marshall Couny, Iowa epidemic petered out so suddenly, and then it dawned on me that this has been a very wet summer here in Iowa, but it has been very dry in much of Minnesota. Something to think about.
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Postby chiggerbit » Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:28 pm

So, without a culture-test taking several days, how do you distinguish between seasonal influenza and apparently manmade Swine Flu? Which symptoms are the give-away?


I think they do enough on-going testing to now know that, as happens with new flu viruses, it has replaced the usual ones we've had the last few years. Rats, I just was going through some of the pages here, and there was an article that explained this phenomenon, maybe before or after page 18 or 20 . The 1918 one replaced the ones that had been circulating up to that time, and it was pretty much the only one until, trying to remember, but I think the 1950's one, and the 1950's dominated until the 1976 one...
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Postby chiggerbit » Mon Sep 28, 2009 2:42 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 54_pf.html

Swine Flu Surge Closes Schools, Tests Hospitals

By Rob Stein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 27, 2009


In Austin, so many parents are rushing their children to the Dell Children's Medical Center of Central Texas with swine flu symptoms that the hospital had to set up tents in the parking lot to cope with the onslaught.

In Memphis, the Le Bonheur Children's Medical Center emergency room got so crowded with feverish, miserable youngsters that it had to do the same thing.

And in Manning, S.C., a private school where an 11-year-old girl died shut down after the number of students who were out sick with similar symptoms reached nearly a third of the student body.

"It just kind of snowballed," said Kim Jordan, a teacher at the Laurence Manning Academy, which closed Wednesday after Ashlie Pipkin died, and the number of ill students hit 287. "We had several teachers out also. That was the reason to close the school -- so everyone could just be away from one another for a few days."

After months of warnings and frantic preparations, the second wave of the swine flu pandemic is starting to be felt around the country, as doctors, health clinics, hospitals and schools are reporting rapidly increasing numbers of patients experiencing flu symptoms.

"H1N1 is spreading widely throughout the U.S.," said Thomas R. Frieden, director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta during a briefing on Friday. At least 26 states, including Maryland and Virginia, are now reporting widespread flu activity, up from 21 a week earlier, the CDC reported. "H1N1 activity is now widespread," Frieden said.

While so far most cases are mild, and the health-care system is handling the load, officials say the number of people seeking treatment for the flu is unprecedented for this time of year. Even though some parts of the Southeast that started seeing a surge of cases first now seem to be showing a decline in cases, that could be a temporary reprieve, Frieden said. And other parts of the country are likely just starting to feel the second wave.

Maryland health authorities on Friday said a Baltimore-area youth with an underlying health problem had died of swine flu, the state's first such fatality involving a youth.

Despite new federal guidelines aimed at keeping schools open, the pandemic has already prompted scattered school closings around the country in recent weeks, including 42 schools that closed in eight states on Friday, affecting more than 16,000 students.


Many colleges and universities have been hit particularly hard, forcing some to open separate dorms for sick students. Ninety-one percent of the 267 colleges and universities being surveyed by the American College Health Association are now reporting cases.


At the Le Bonheur Children's Medical Center, the number of patients coming in each day shot up from about 180 to a peak of more than 400, prompting officials to erect a 2,500-square foot tent in the parking lot to handle the surge. More than 300 patients are still coming in every day.

"What we initially did was try to bring in extra folks, but you soon run out of extra people and extra spaces to put people," said Barry Gilmore, the hospital's medical director for emergency services.

Doctors, nurses, paramedics or other workers screen patients in the tent and decide who can safely go home. Anyone with other health problems that put them at risk, such as asthma, heart disease or kidney disease, is sent immediately to the emergency room. All patients who are sent home are contacted within 24 to 48 hours to make sure they are recovering.

"We are mostly dealing with the worried well or kids who are mildly ill but not severely ill," he said.

At least 14 patients, however, were admitted to the hospital and perhaps six required intensive care, he said. One teenager died.

Swine flu, also known as H1N1, tends to strike more younger people than the usual seasonal flu. At least 49 children have died from complications caused by the virus so far in the United States.

At the Dell Children's Medical Center, the number of patients coming in each day shot up from about 180 to more than 340, prompting the hospital to require staff to work extra shifts and erect two tents outside the emergency room to handle the overflow and keep possibly infected patients separate from others.

"We are able to take care of them really rapidly without a long wait, and they don't have to be mixed in with other patients who do not have the flu," said Pat Crocker, chief of emergency medicine. "It's been highly efficient."

But Crocker, noting that the hospital is already busier than it was in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, said the hospital has a third tent ready to be set up.

Individual doctors' offices are also reporting a surge of patients in many parts of the country.

"We're completely swamped," said Ari Brown, an Austin pediatrician whose office had to call in extra nurses to handle the volume of patients. "It's been extraordinarily busy. We have a small parking lot to begin with. People now are circulating the neighborhood to try to find a place to park and the waiting room is completely packed."

Unless patients are seriously ill or have other conditions that put them at risk, Brown and other doctors say they tell parents to take their children home, give them Motrin or Tylenol for their fevers, headaches and body aches, and lots of fluids, and wait it out. Some doctors report that children tend to recover within about four days, a day or two shorter than with the typical flu.

Nevertheless, "people are so worried about this," Brown said. "There's clearly a certain level of hysteria."

Although no hospitals in the Washington region have yet had to activate their emergency plans, many are reporting an increase in patients, as are individual doctors.

"Some of that is because of the swine flu and some of it is because of phobia about the flu," said Steven Mumbauer, a Waynesboro, Va., pediatrician. "But we definitely are seeing sicker kids and have treated more kids with pneumonia than we typically would this time of the year. There have been some days where we've been absolutely swamped."

At the University of Maryland Medical Center in Baltimore, some children have gotten so sick that they have required intensive care, and that includes some children with no other health problems.

"We have some very sick children," said Ina Stephens, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the hospital. "I'm concerned it's just the tip of the iceberg -- that we're just seeing the beginning of it."
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Postby mentalgongfu2 » Tue Sep 29, 2009 11:10 am

Public health department reports 2 new Iowa swine flu deaths

By Associated Press

1:56 PM CDT, September 28, 2009
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — The Iowa Department of Public Health is reporting two more deaths associated with the swine flu virus.

The Health department reported Monday the victims were adult males living in eastern Iowa who had personal factors that may have put them at higher risk for H1N1-related complications.

The deaths of the men bring to three confirmed Iowa deaths relating to the H1N1 virus.

Public health medical director Dr. Patricia Quinlisk says the deaths serve as a reminder the virus has the potential to cause severe disease and even death. She added the fact the fatalities were in east Iowa is not an indication the virus is more severe or prevalent in that area.

Quinlisk says residents should take precautions to prevent getting or spreading the virus, including cleaning hands frequently, covering mouths when coughing or sneezing, and staying home when ill.
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Postby chiggerbit » Tue Sep 29, 2009 11:29 am

Yeah, I'd seen that mgf2. "Eastern" Iowa is pretty damned vague, and it's the same as they did with the previous death. I wonder if this is the pork industry that's putting pressure on the Iowa health department. That lobby sure has the Secretary of Agriculture, Iowa's old governor, out there flapping his lips about calling it H1N1 instead of swine flu. As of several years ago they were calling it SIV, for Swine Influenza Virus, but I guess that wouldn't do, either, huh? I'd sure like to know if the death locations are near any hog confinements. It may be the Latinos who are dying (it's been noted elsewhere that people with dark skin are at more risk from this bug), which they may worry would put a spotlight on their illegal workers, or possibly whether they're getting their workers to the hospital soon enough, or perhaps the fact that they don't provide their workers health insurance. I'm just speculating on why the weird change in reporting since last spring. No other state does this. They should at least be reporting which counties the deaths are happening in.

I have my eye out for death clusters now, have noticed one in NE Kansas.
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Postby chiggerbit » Tue Sep 29, 2009 5:42 pm

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/articl ... /-1/NEWS04

State releases few details on H1N1 flu cases, deaths



Iowa health authorities are being relatively secretive about H1N1 cases, including two new deaths they announced Monday.

The Iowa Department of Public Health described the victims as "adult males" from eastern Iowa. But it wouldn't say which counties the men were from, and it released few details about how old they were, when they died or why they might have been susceptible to complications from the disease.



Several neighboring states are more forthcoming. For example, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska and Wisconsin report which counties or towns flu victims are from, and all but Wisconsin give more specific age ranges than Iowa makes public.

Iowa officials say they are protecting patient privacy. But a public-information advocate said they are going too far.

Kathleen Richardson, executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, said the public is nervous about H1N1, and health officials should be as open as possible to gain the public's confidence.

"The more information we can give people about who's being affected and the types of people who are being affected, the better off we'll all be."

Dr. Patricia Quinlisk, state epidemiologist, said the health department is balancing the public's right to know with families' rights to grieve in private.

Quinlisk said deaths require extra privacy precautions, because published obituaries could provide clues to flu victims' identities. "If we said it was a young male from Greene County, how long do you think it would take you to figure that out? I bet it would take five minutes," she said.

Quinlisk said confidentiality decisions are being made about each case. For example, Iowa's first H1N1 death report, which came in August, did not include the victim's gender. But the report Monday about Iowa's second and third deaths said the victims were men.

The health department said the men "both had personal factors that may have put them at higher risk for H1N1-related complications," which Quinlisk said meant they had chronic health problems.

However, the department would not say when the men died, how old they were, or which counties they were from. It said the cases were unrelated, and it said the fact that both were from eastern Iowa did not imply the virus is more common or severe there than elsewhere.

Several neighboring states are reporting confirmed H1N1 illnesses by county, but Iowa is reporting them only by region. Quinlisk said that's because health care providers here tend to draw patients from numerous counties, so it's more helpful to report the cases by region. She said she would have no qualms answering questions about whether a county had confirmed cases.

Richardson said her group, whose members include The Des Moines Register, negotiated with the health department about openness when West Nile virus was making news several years ago. At the time, she said, the health department agreed to release each victim's home county, age range and approximate date of death or treatment. Now, she said, the department appears to have backtracked from that agreement.

"It's just ridiculous that we have to fight this battle over and over again every time there is a new communicable disease people want to know about," she said.

Richardson said she thought about the issue recently when she heard a radio report with specifics about plague cases in China, which is hardly known for free speech. "China is giving out more information about that than the Iowa Department of Public Health is giving out about this," she said.

Quinlisk said she would release more information if she thought it would help people understand the disease and protect themselves from it. For example, she said, it is important for people to know that H1N1 flu is present throughout the state and that it is hitting school-age children and young adults unusually hard. But she said knowing a victim's exact age or hometown should not make a difference in how Iowans respond to the outbreak.

Quinlisk stressed that people should continue to take common-sense precautions, including washing their hands often and thoroughly, using a tissue or sleeve if they cough or sneeze and staying home if they feel ill.

H1N1 vaccinations are expected to start arriving in a few weeks. They will be offered first to people in high-risk groups, including children, young adults, pregnant women and adults with chronic health problems that make them susceptible to the disease.
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Postby polytron » Wed Sep 30, 2009 6:35 pm

I work at a hospital, and I just found out yesterday that the hospital administration is considering requiring all employees with direct patient contact to take the h1n1 vaccine. I found this alarming since my job includes direct patient contact, and I normally refuse the flu shot. It's not official yet, but it sounds likely. I don't want to name the hospital that I work for because I don't want to appear to be badmouthing my employer (especially online for everyone to see). I've worked in healthcare since 2001, and I've always been offered a free flu shot at the start of flu season. This is the first time I've heard of requiring employees to take a vaccine. I started hearing about a slew of microbiologists dying under mysterious circumstances back in 2004. I'm sure you're all familiar with those deaths. those deaths, along with rumors about defective vaccines, were part of my decision years ago to avoid the flu shot. I haven't had the flu since I was a child, so I don't worry about catching it. since I've worked at the hospital, I've always signed the same form all employees receive regarding the flu shot. I'd sign and put an X in the box that indicates that I decline the shot. end of story until next year. well... this year is going to be different. word is that it'll still be a two weeks until we get the seasonal flu shot (a little later than usual), and not until the end of October for the h1n1 shot. Already I'm feeling some pressure to take the h1n1 shot, I figure that pressure will be pretty intense when/if the shot actually arrives. Even if my employer can't legally force me to take the shot, there are many ways to pressure an employee into compliance. To be clear, I've seen no wrong-doing by my employer so far. but I will be upset if I'm required to take the h1n1 shot. I'm not willing to lose my job over this, so if I have to, I'll take the shot. If I do have to take the h1n1 vaccine, I'll let you guys know how it goes. I've heard a few rumors that a patient here and there is suspected to have h1n1, but nothing confirmed as far as I know. I still think that h1n1 is just an overhyped virus in the same vein as SARS and avian flu. The death rates for h1n1 don't seem to be much higher than any other flu strain, so why all this fuss about forced vaccinations? My conspiratorial sense is flashing red. A new, untested vaccine that might be forced on healthcare workers... I try hard to control my paranoia, but obviously there is something strange going on.
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