Caribbean geology

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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Tue Feb 02, 2010 11:33 am

If there's another big quake in Haiti, what will happen if there's a hurricane. which is most likely?

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/southfl ... 58056.html

Danger of another big earthquake in Haiti is a real threat
The danger of another earthquake in Haiti is high enough that scientists are suggesting people sleep in tents.

Related Content
Complete coverage: Haiti's earthquake aftermath
By FRED TASKER
ftasker@MiamiHerald.com

The chance of another big earthquake in Haiti in the near future is great enough that people in Port-au-Prince should sleep in tents -- not even in buildings that survived the Jan. 12 quake apparently unscathed, geologists said Monday.

A report by the United States Geological Survey says the probability of an aftershock of magnitude 7 or greater in Haiti in the next 30 days is 3 percent, the probability of one magnitude 6 or greater is 25 percent, and of one magnitude 5 or greater is about 90 percent.

``Three percent may not sound big, but it is pretty big in terms of what we might have expected after a standard earthquake,'' said Dr. Tim Dixon, professor of geophysics at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science in Miami.

In a typical earthquake, the probability of another quake of the same magnitude that soon would be ``vanishingly small, close to 0,'' he said.

TENTS ARE SAFEST

He went on: ``If people are in tents, they're quite safe. I would advise them not to move into buildings -- even ones that have been declared safe. And they shouldn't put up a tent beside a tall building.''

In the complex terminology of earthquake measurements, a 6.0 earthquake is only 1/32nd as powerful as a 7.0 quake, and a 5.0 quake is 1/32nd as powerful as a 6.0.

But the USGS report warns: ``Any aftershock above magnitude 5.0 will be widely felt and has the potential to cause additional damage, particularly to vulnerable, already damaged structures.''

In the three weeks since the Jan. 12 quake of magnitude 7.0, Haiti has had 63 aftershocks, ranging from magnitude 4.0 to 5.9, the USGS says.

CONSTANT THREAT

The aftershocks are decreasing.

On Jan. 13, the day after the big quake, the Haiti region had 31 aftershocks from magnitude 4.2 to 5.9. Since Jan. 22 there have been only seven -- from 4.0 to 4.8.

That's to be expected, said Dr. David Applegate, a seismologist with the USGS. But it doesn't lessen the probability of more aftershocks.

``This is the fiendish thing about earthquakes,'' he said. ``A hurricane hits and moves on; after an earthquake, just because the aftershocks are decreasing doesn't mean we can't have another large quake.''

He called Dixon's advice to sleep in tents ``a reasonable idea.''

One big concern is that the area of the fault zone that did not rupture during the big Jan. 12 quake is closer to Port-au-Prince than the part that did rupture, Dixon said.

The Enriquillo Fault Line that caused the big quake starts in Jamaica to the west and runs east through Haiti, about 10 miles south of Port-au-Prince, and on east into the Dominican Republic, Dixon said.

The part that ruptured started about 20 miles southwest of the city and ran west for about 30 miles, leaving the rest of the 300-mile fault line intact -- both to the east and the west.

When this happens, it can increase seismic pressure on the fault line on both sides of the rupture, Dixon said.


The area of most concern now lies east of the big quake's epicenter, only about 10 miles south of Port-au-Prince.

The Enriquillo fault line is on the boundary of the massive North American and Caribbean tectonic plates, which slide across each other at a rate of about an inch a year.

Looking at the longer term, the Jan. 21 USGS report says, ``...satellite and airborne imagery suggests that the segment of the Enriquillo fault east of the Jan. 12 epicenter and directly adjacent to Port-au-Prince did not slip appreciably in this event. This implies that the Enriquillo fault zone near Port-au-Prince still stores sufficient strain to be released as a large, damaging earthquake during the lifetime of structures built during reconstruction.''

MOVING A CITY

The USGS report concludes: ``It is essential that the rebuilding effort in Haiti take into account the potential for, indeed the inevitability of, future strong earthquakes.''

Dixon advised rebuilding the city at least 15 miles north of its present location.

The USGS report advises at least a thorough seismic hazard assessment as well as better building codes.
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:25 pm

Not familiar with this site:

http://www.matador94.nl/oil/the-fateful ... #more-3189

Haiti: possibly one of the world’s richest zones for hydrocarbons-oil and gas outside the Middle East

President becomes UN Special Envoy to earthquake-stricken Haiti.
A born-again neo-conservative US business wheeler-dealer preacher claims Haitians are condemned for making a literal ‘pact with the Devil.’

Venezuelan, Nicaraguan, Bolivian, French and Swiss rescue organizations accuse the US military of refusing landing rights to planes bearing necessary medicines and urgently needed potable water to the millions of Haitians stricken, injured and homeless.

Behind the smoke, rubble and unending drama of human tragedy in the hapless Caribbean country, a drama is in full play for control of what geophysicists believe may be one of the world’s richest zones for hydrocarbons-oil and gas outside the Middle East, possibly orders of magnitude greater than that of nearby Venezuela.


Haiti, and the larger island of Hispaniola of which it is a part, has the geological fate that it straddles one of the world’s most active geological zones, where the deepwater plates of three huge structures relentlessly rub against one another—the intersection of the North American, South American and Caribbean tectonic plates. Below the ocean and the waters of the Caribbean, these plates consist of an oceanic crust some 3 to 6 miles thick, floating atop an adjacent mantle. Haiti also lies at the edge of the region known as the Bermuda Triangle, a vast area in the Caribbean subject to bizarre and unexplained disturbances.

This vast mass of underwater plates are in constant motion, rubbing against each other along lines analogous to cracks in a broken porcelain vase that has been reglued. The earth’s tectonic plates typically move at a rate 50 to 100 mm annually in relation to one another, and are the origin of earthquakes and of volcanoes. The regions of convergence of such plates are also areas where vast volumes of oil and gas can be pushed upwards from the Earth’s mantle. The geophysics surrounding the convergence of the three plates that run more or less directly beneath Port-au-Prince make the region prone to earthquakes such as the one that struck Haiti with devastating ferocity on January 12.
A relevant Texas geological project

Leaving aside the relevant question of how well in advance the Pentagon and US scientists knew the quake was about to occur, and what Pentagon plans were being laid before January 12, another issue emerges around the events in Haiti that might help explain the bizarre behavior to date of the major ‘rescue’ players—the United States, France and Canada. Aside from being prone to violent earthquakes, Haiti also happens to lie in a zone that, due to the unusual geographical intersection of its three tectonic plates, might well be straddling one of the world’s largest unexplored zones of oil and gas, as well as of valuable rare strategic minerals.

The vast oil reserves of the Persian Gulf and of the region from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden are at a similar convergence zone of large tectonic plates, as are such oil-rich zones as Indonesia and the waters off the coast of California. In short, in terms of the physics of the earth, precisely such intersections of tectonic masses as run directly beneath Haiti have a remarkable tendency to be the sites of vast treasures of minerals, as well as oil and gas, throughout the world.

Notably, in 2005, a year after the Bush-Cheney Administration de facto deposed the democratically elected President of Haiti, Jean-Baptiste Aristide, a team of geologists from the Institute for Geophysics at the University of Texas began an ambitious and thorough two-phase mapping of all geological data of the Caribbean Basins. The project is due to be completed in 2011. Directed by Dr. Paul Mann, it is called “Caribbean Basins, Tectonics and Hydrocarbons.” It is all about determining as precisely as possible the relation between tectonic plates in the Caribbean and the potential for hydrocarbons—oil and gas.

Notably, the sponsors of the multi-million dollar research project under Mann are the world’s largest oil companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, the Anglo-Dutch Shell and BHP Billiton.[1] Curiously enough, the project is the first comprehensive geological mapping of a region that, one would have thought, would have been a priority decades ago for the US oil majors. Given the immense, existing oil production off Mexico, Louisiana, and the entire Caribbean, as well as its proximity to the United States – not to mention the US focus on its own energy security – it is surprising that the region had not been mapped earlier. Now it emerges that major oil companies were at least generally aware of the huge oil potential of the region long ago, but apparently decided to keep it quiet.

Cuba’s Super-giant find



Evidence that the US Administration may well have more in mind for Haiti than the improvement of the lot of the devastated Haitian people can be found in nearby waters off Cuba, directly across from Port-au-Prince. In October 2008 a consortium of oil companies led by Spain’s Repsol, together with Cuba’s state oil company, Cubapetroleo, announced discovery of one of the world’s largest oilfields in the deep water off Cuba. It is what oil geologists call a ‘Super-giant’ field. Estimates are that the Cuban field contains as much as 20 billion barrels of oil, making it the twelfth Super-giant oilfield discovered since 1996. The discovery also likely makes Cuba a new high-priority target for Pentagon destabilization and other nasty operations.

No doubt to the dismay of Washington, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev flew to Havana one month after the Cuban giant oil find to sign an agreement with acting-President Raul Castro for Russian oil companies to explore and develop Cuban oil.[2]

Medvedev’s Russia-Cuba oil agreements came only a week after the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to meet the recuperating Fidel Castro and his brother Raul. The Chinese President signed an agreement to modernize Cuban ports and discussed Chinese purchase of Cuban raw materials. No doubt the mammoth new Cuban oil discovery was high on the Chinese agenda with Cuba.[3] On November 5, 2008, just prior to the Chinese President’s trip to Cuba and other Latin American countries, the Chinese government issued their first ever policy paper on the future of China’s relations with Latin America and Caribbean nations, elevating these bilateral relations to a new level of strategic importance. [4]

The Cuba Super-giant oil find also leaves the advocates of ‘Peak Oil’ theory with more egg on the face. Shortly before the Bush-Blair decision to invade and occupy Iraq, a theory made the rounds of cyberspace, that sometime after 2010, the world would reach an absolute “peak” in world oil production, initiating a period of decline with drastic social and economic implications. Its prominent spokesmen, including retired oil geologist Colin Campbell and Texas oil banker Matt Simmons, claimed that there had not been a single new Super-giant oil discovery since 1976, or thereabouts, and that new fields found over the past two decades had been “tiny” compared with the earlier giant discoveries in Saudi Arabia, Prudhoe Bay, Daquing in China and elsewhere. [5]

It is critical to note that, more than half a century ago, a group of Russian and Ukrainian geophysicists, working in state secrecy, confirmed that hydrocarbons originated deep in the earth’s mantle under conditions similar to a giant burning cauldron at extreme temperature and pressure. They demonstrated that, contrary to US and accepted Western ‘mainstream’ geology, hydrocarbons were not the result of dead dinosaur detritus concentrated and compressed and somehow transformed into oil and gas millions of years ago, nor of algae or other biological material.[6]

The Russian and Ukrainian geophysicists then proved that the oil or gas produced in the earth’s mantle was pushed upwards along faults or cracks in the earth as close to the surface as pressures permitted. The process was analogous to the production of molten lava in volcanoes. It means that the ability to find oil is limited, relatively speaking, only by the ability to identify deep fissures and complex geological activity conducive to bringing the oil out from deep in the earth. It seems that the waters of the Caribbean, especially those off Cuba and its neighbor Haiti, are just such a region of concentrated hydrocarbons (oil and gas) that have found their way upwards close to the surface, perhaps in a magnitude comparable to a new Saudi Arabia.[7]
Haiti, a new Saudi Arabia?

The remarkable geography of Haiti and Cuba and the discovery of world-class oil reserves in the waters off Cuba lend credence to anecdotal accounts of major oil discoveries in several parts of Haitian territory. It also could explain why two Bush Presidents and now special UN Haiti Envoy Bill Clinton have made Haiti such a priority. As well, it could explain why Washington and its NGO’s moved so quickly to remove– twice– the democratically elected President Aristide, whose economic program for Haiti included, among other items, proposals for developing Haitian natural resources for the benefit of the Haitian people.

In March 2004, some months before the University of Texas and American Big Oil launched their ambitious mapping of the hydrocarbon potentials of the Caribbean, a Haitian writer, Dr. Georges Michel, published online an article titled ‘Oil in Haiti.’ In it, Michel wrote,

… .[I]t has been no secret that deep in the earthy bowels of the two states that share the island of Haiti and the surrounding waters that there are significant, still untapped deposits of oil. One knows not why they are still untapped. Since the early twentieth century, the physical and political map of the island of Haiti, erected in 1908 by Messrs. Alexander Poujol and Henry Thomasset, reported a major oil reservoir in Haiti near the source of the Rio Todo El Mondo, Tributary Right Artibonite River, better known today as the River Thomonde. [8]

According to a June 2008 article by Roberson Alphonse in the Haitian paper, Le Nouvelliste en Haiti, “The signs, (indicators), justifying the explorations of oil (black gold) in Haiti are encouraging. In the middle of the oil shock, some 4 companies want official licenses from the Haitian State to drill for oil.”

At the time, oil prices were climbing above $140 a barrel — on manipulations by various Wall Street banks. Alphonse’s article quoted Dieusuel Anglade, the Haitian State Director of the Office of Mining and Energy, telling the Haitian press: “We’ve received four requests for oil exploration permits…We have had encouraging indicators to justify the pursuit of the exploration of black gold (oil), which had stopped in 1979.”[9]

Alphonse reported the findings from a 1979 geological study in Haiti of 11 exploratory oil wells drilled at the Plaine du Cul-de-sac on the Plateau Central and at L’ile de La Gonaive: “Surface (tentative) indicators for oil were found at the Southern peninsula and on the North coast, explained the engineer Anglade, who strongly believes in the immediate commercial viability of these explorations.”[10]

Journalist Alphonse cites an August 16, 1979 memo by Haitian attorney Francois Lamothe, in which he noted that “five big wells were drilled” down to depths of 9000 feet and that a sample that “underwent a physical-chemical analysis in Munich, Germany” had “revealed tracks of oil.” [11]

Despite the promising 1979 results in Haiti, Dr. Georges Michel reported that, “the big multinational oil companies operating in Haiti pushed for the discovered deposits not to be exploited.” [12] Oil exploration in and offshore Haiti ground to a sudden halt as a result.

Similar if less precise reports claiming that Haitian oil reserves could be vastly larger than those of Venezuela have appeared in Haitian websites. [13] Then in 2010 the financial news site Bloomberg News carried the following:

The Jan. 12 earthquake was on a fault line that passes near potential gas reserves, said Stephen Pierce, a geologist who worked in the region for 30 years for companies that included the former Mobil Corp. The quake may have cracked rock formations along the fault, allowing gas or oil to temporarily seep toward the surface, he said Monday in a telephone interview. ‘A geologist, callous as it may seem, tracing that fault zone from Port-au-Prince to the border looking for gas and oil seeps, may find a structure that hasn’t been drilled,’ said Pierce, exploration manager at Zion Oil & Gas Inc., a Dallas-based company that’s drilling in Israel. [14]

In an interview with a Santo Domingo online paper, Leopoldo Espaillat Nanita, former head of the Dominican Petroleum Refinery (REFIDOMSA) stated, “there is a multinational conspiracy to illegally take the mineral resources of the Haitian people.” [15] Haiti’s minerals include gold, the valuable strategic metal iridium and oil, apparently lots of it.

Aristide’s development plans

Marguerite Laurent (‘Ezili Dantò’), president of the Haitian Lawyers’ Leadership Network (HLLN) who served as attorney for the deposed Aristide, notes that when Aristide was President — up until his US-backed ouster during the Bush era in 2004 — he had developed and published in book form his national development plans. These plans included, for the first time, a detailed list of known sites where the resources of Haiti were located. The publication of the plan sparked a national debate over Haitian radio and in the media about the future of the country. Aristide’s plan was to implement a public-private partnership to ensure that the development of Haiti’s oil, gold and other valuable resources would benefit the national economy and the broader population, and not merely the five Haitian oligarchic families and their US backers, the so-called Chimeres or gangsters. [16]

Since the ouster of Aristide in 2004, Haiti has been an occupied country, with a dubiously-elected President, Rene Preval, a controversial follower of IMF privatization mandates and reportedly tied to the Chimeres or Haitian oligarchs who backed the removal of Aristide. Notably, the US State Department refuses to permit the return of Aristide from South African exile.

Now, in the wake of the devastating earthquake of January 12, the United States military has taken control of Haiti’s four airports and presently has some 20,000 troops in the country. Journalists and international aid organizations have accused the US military of being more concerned with imposing military control, which it prefers to call “security,” than with bringing urgently needed water, food and medicine from the airport sites to the population.

A US military occupation of Haiti under the guise of earthquake disaster ‘relief’ would give Washington and private business interests tied to it a geopolitical prize of the first order. Prior to the January 12 quake, the US Embassy in Port-au-Prince was the fifth largest US embassy in the world, comparable to its embassies in such geopolitically strategic places as Berlin and Beijing.[17] With huge new oil finds off Cuba being exploited by Russian companies, with clear indications that Haiti contains similar vast untapped oil as well as gold, copper, uranium and iridium, with Hugo Chavez’ Venezuela as a neighbor to the south of Haiti, a return of Aristide or any popular leader committed to developing the resources for the people of Haiti, — the poorest nation in the Americas — would constitute a devastating blow to the world’s sole Superpower. The fact that in the aftermath of the earthquake, UN Haiti Special Envoy Bill Clinton joined forces with Aristide foe George W. Bush to create something called the Clinton-Bush Haiti Fund ought to give everyone pause.

According to Marguerite Laurent (‘Ezili Dantò’) of the Haitian Lawyers’ Leadership Network, under the guise of emergency relief work, the US, France and Canada are engaged in a balkanization of the island for future mineral control. She reports rumors that Canada wants the North of Haiti where Canadian mining interests are already present. The US wants Port-au-Prince and the island of La Gonaive just offshore – an area identified in Aristide’s development book as having vast oil resources, and which is bitterly contested by France. She further states that China, with UN veto power over the de facto UN-occupied country, may have something to say against such a US-France-Canada carve up of the vast wealth of the nation. [18]
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Wed Feb 03, 2010 12:34 pm

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 99,00.html

02/02/2010 04:01 PM
Preparing for the Next Earthquake
Haiti Debates Moving Its Capital

By Clemens Höges

Haiti's official seismologist, who predicted the recent earthquake, has warned that an even stronger one is likely to hit Port-au-Prince within the next 20 years. Now the Haitian government is debating how and if the capital should be rebuilt -- or if it should be moved elsewhere.

Claude Prépetit had seen it coming in his figures. He had done the calculations, in millimeters and in centuries, he had calculated the pressure that was building up beneath his feet, and he had estimated the energy that would eventually be discharged. And when the earth finally did shake, and falling concrete ceilings, stone walls and wooden beams killed at least 170,000 people within the space of 40 seconds, that was when Prépetit thought to himself: "This is it -- this has to be a seven."

He had predicted an earthquake with a magnitude of about 7.2 points on the Richter scale, and the actual quake measured 7.0. For years, he had taken precise measurements and performed careful calculations, and he had done his job exceedingly well.

When the earthquake struck, he was sitting at home in front of his computer. He jumped up and took shelter in the doorframe, because good doorframes are more capable of standing up to an earthquake than walls, something that Prépetit knows well. In fact, as the Haitian government's official seismologist, he knows everything about earthquakes.


In those 40 seconds, his brother-in-law and some of his friends died. Shortly afterwards, his father-in-law also died. Prépetit survived. After having spent years warning about the possibility of an earthquake striking Haiti, he can hardly be blamed for what happened there.

Prépetit, a tall man with a wrinkled face who is wearing sneakers, now says, quite calmly, that the earth beneath Port-au-Prince will shake again, but first it will happen farther to the north. The next quake, according to Prépetit's calculations, will be even stronger, probably measuring about 7.6 on the Richter scale. He predicts that it could happen in 20 years' time, give or take a few years.

Prépetit has divided Haiti into risk zones, based on information his staff has compiled and applied to a map of the country. Seismologists looking at the map can immediately recognize that the most dangerous place in the country is the capital. "We have to make this clear to people, and they have to understand it," says the scientist. "A lot of people have to get out of here."

Nightmare City

The Haitian capital may be tomorrow's deathtrap, but it is currently today's nightmare. The bodies still lying in the wreckage are decomposing in the heat, while the survivors simply step over them. Looters are clearing out the ruined buildings, hunted by police officers on motorcycles wielding pump guns. The hungry survivors fight over every bag of rice tossed down from the trucks of international aid organizations.

The United Nations estimates that 75 percent of the city will have to be rebuilt, and that well over 500,000 people are now living in the streets. The more fortunate of the newly homeless have plastic tarps, mattresses or wooden boards to build tents for themselves. The drone of American Blackhawk helicopters can be heard overhead.

The Haitians have been promised $2 billion (€1.43 billion), both for the immediate disaster relief effort and to pay for the reconstruction of the country and its capital. Now the question is how to go about it. There are two possible approaches, one dangerous and the other audacious.

The Haitians could rebuild the capital to look more or less the way it did before the quake, except with more stable official buildings, naturally. That would be enough -- until the next major earthquake. Or they could use Prépetit's map, embark on a bold exodus from Port-au-Prince and build a new capital elsewhere. The latter approach would resemble what the Brazilians did in 1960, when the government moved to the newly built city of Brasilia, deep in the country's interior.

Significant Data

In 2001, Prépetit's prediction that the fate of Port-au-Prince is to be destroyed again and again was confirmed when a group of French seismologists came to the island, bringing along state-of-the-art instruments. Prépetit helped them distribute 30 measuring stations around the country. Then the scientists waited, monitoring their instruments, and eventually the equipment began spitting out data. Using the data, the seismologists could calculate how much energy will be released when there is a sudden shift in the two tectonic plates that come together near the capital, the kind of shift that is likely to happen repeatedly. The only problem is that no one can predict when these shifts will take place.

Should Prépetit have spoken up more loudly? And even if he had, could he have convinced the government to do anything? "Resettling hundreds of thousands of people is very expensive and very difficult. Haiti is a poor country. And besides, I didn't know when it was going to happen. What if it hadn't happened for another 30 years?" But now Prépetit wants to talk, and he wants people to listen to what he has to say.

An earthquake already destroyed the city once before, in 1751, and the survivors rebuilt Port-au-Prince. The next major quake came in 1770.


An Opportunity for Haiti


"We cannot invest a cent in Port-au-Prince; it would be a waste of money," says Bernard Etheart. "We can't afford to lose everything once again. We must take advantage of the opportunity we have today." Sitting in a radio studio, Etheart takes off his headphones and runs his hand through his tousled white hair. He laughs a lot and, at 72, moves like a much younger man.

Etheart studied in Munich, where he met a young female journalist, also from Haiti. The two returned home to Haiti, but before long then-Haitian dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier, known as Baby Doc, expelled them from the country, as part of an effort to do away with his critics. After 18 years in exile, they finally returned home.


Etheart was a professor for many years, and he now runs the government's institute for land reform. Agriculture is about the only industry that functions in Haiti, which produces sugarcane and coffee and not much else.

Haitians have little choice but to listen to Etheart, whose wife owns one of the most influential radio stations on the island, which, of course, gives Etheart a forum for his views. About 50 percent of Haitians are illiterate, and many are too poor to afford a television set. But the one thing they can do is vote, which is why radio is such a powerful medium in the country. The Ethearts also publish a newspaper.

Breaking Through the Vicious Circle

Etheart believes that the earthquake must now force Haiti to finally stand on its own feet. Of the country's population of 9 million, about 2 million live in the crowded Port-au-Prince valley, at a population density of 5,000 people per square kilometer. The capital is a population magnet, and yet it is incapable of feeding so many people. The conditions contribute to the growth of slums, like the ones that have crept up the hills surrounding Port-au-Prince. When the earthquake struck, the poorly constructed houses on these hillsides quickly slid downhill, burying the inhabitants in the process.

Etheart has a plan that could solve the country's problems. He opens a file and pulls out a piece of paper, a graph taken from a study conducted by a colleague. It illustrates Haiti's vicious circle: The government invests its money in the capital, but this only aggravates the country's poverty. As the capital becomes more attractive for migrants from the countryside, the state is forced to spend more money, becoming even poorer in the process.

"It is now time to break through this vicious circle," says Etheart. "We must invest in the country's small cities." But it would be unacceptable to forcibly displace people, he adds. "We have to offer them incentives" -- jobs, schools, hospitals, anything with a future.

Of course, the earthquake could also help Etheart press forward with his dream of major land reforms. The government is already sending thousands of people to rural areas. Initially buses and trucks left the chaos of the capital on a daily basis, transporting passengers to the countryside at no cost. The only catch was that no one was given return tickets. But now very few city residents are taking the government up on its not-too-subtle resettlement offer.

Staying in the Capital

This is not surprising, since the refugees have little to look forward to in the countryside: no jobs, no place to live and not much to eat. "What am I supposed to do in the countryside?" asks Cynthia Saint Fort. The 22-year-old nurse wants to go to medical school, and the country's only university is in Port-au-Prince. Of course, she adds, she is also afraid to stay there, in a place where she has seen so many people die. She says that she is only alive today because someone else died. When the houses began breaking apart, she started running and tripped, and a man fell on top of her. As he was lying there, a piece of concrete fell on the man and killed him.

For Saint Fort, Port-au-Prince is still the only place where she feels useful. The hillside house she and her brothers lived in before the quake was destroyed, but the family has now built a makeshift shelter in the ruins with mattresses, furniture and tarps.

They plan to rebuild the house, and they hope to receive government assistance to do so, but like everyone else, they have no idea what the future will hold. She spends her days tending to her patients in a makeshift hospital set up in the courtyard of a house. Death was yesterday. Now her life is in Port-au-Prince.

Etheart is familiar with all of the reasons why Haitians are unwilling to leave the capital. But he also believes that if all the money that is now being pledged to Haiti is invested in smaller cities, life outside Port-au-Prince could also become more appealing.


'We Need Advice'

A small research facility, the only building left of the country's Ministry of Public Works, lies on the outskirts of downtown Port-au-Prince. Jacques Gabriel, Haiti's minister of public works, transportation and communication, walks with a stoop as he enters his new office. It is empty, with the exception of a desk, five moving boxes, and a framed map of Haiti leaning against the wall. His ministry literally disappeared beneath his feet.

When the earthquake struck three weeks ago, Gabriel tried to make it to the door, but it was jammed. A hole opened up in the wall, and when the ground shook he was thrown to the floor. Another tremor flung him outside, bruised but alive. He doesn't see very well now, after losing his glasses in the quake. He hasn't been able to find his optometrist.


Gabriel moved to the research facility, where he was given an office, and he is thankful that his old Nokia mobile phone still works. The building now serves as the ministry's control center.

Pros and Cons

Other ministries are in similar shape. The president and his cabinet are working in makeshift offices in a police barracks near the airport. They have little more than mobile phones, which explains why there is so little evidence of any government presence in Haiti, and why United Nations peacekeepers and US soldiers are running the city.

Gabriel says that the cabinet doesn't know -- and cannot possibly know -- what the future has in store for Haiti. "We need brainstorming, and we need advice." But one thing, he says, is clear: "We cannot rebuild Port-au-Prince the way it was built before. We will have to resettle a lot of people, and we have to start thinking about other cities." He wants to develop a new seismographic institute, but that will require prompt assistance from foreign experts. Prépetit cannot possibly accomplish this task alone.

At some point, the government and the parliament will have to decide whether to stay in Port-au-Prince. "We must consider the pros and cons," says the minister. If the capital was in the interior of the country, he argues, "we would lose our direct contact with the port."

Is it even possible to simply abandon a capital? Wouldn't it be preferable to rebuild, using lighter materials and safer construction methods?

Seismologically Safe

President René Préval is familiar with Etheart's plan. The two men are old acquaintances, but the president is still skeptical. He calls the former professor "Dessalines," a reference to Jean-Jacques Dessalines, once of Haiti's liberators. In 1803, he defeated the French colonial masters with an army of escaped slaves, who eventually founded their own country. Dessalines made his capital at Marchand, a small town in the country's interior.

Dessalines, who later proclaimed himself emperor of Haiti, using Napoleon as his role model, was murdered in 1806. Today, his statue stands in front of the ruins of the presidential palace in Port-au-Prince, which his successor turned into the capital.

His old capital, a city of about 15,000 people, is now called Dessalines. Etheart believes that a place like Dessalines could now become the country's new capital. As ludicrous as it sounds, he knows that the idea makes sense. According to Prépetit, the plain surrounding Dessalines is, seismologically speaking, one of the safest areas in the country.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:31 am

Can you imagine what would have happened if Haiti had had nuclear plants?
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Sun Feb 07, 2010 1:12 pm

While a number of the Caribbean islands are not volcanic, one that is is Dominica, not to be confused with the Doninican Republic which shares the island with Haiti.

Image

While the rest of the volcanic islands have one each, Dominica has NINE!

Image
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Sun Feb 07, 2010 1:22 pm

More at link:
http://www.caribbeanvolcanoes.com/dominica/geology.htm

"Dominica lies at the center of the Lesser Antilles Island arc, where the islands of the Active Arc (see Lesser Antilles Arcs map on this website) are large and complex comprising many coalesced stratovolcanoes. The island has an area of 750 sq.km and a population of 74,000 including 3,000 Carib Indians. Whereas all the other volcanic islands of the Lesser Antilles have only one active volcano, Dominica has nine and yet there has been no major magmatic eruption since Columbus visited the island and as a result it has today the best and most extensively preserved tropical rainforests. The youngest dated volcanic deposits on the island are associated with the Morne Patates dome on the flanks of the large active Plat Pays Volcano that comprises the southwestern end of the island. This was a Pelean eruption (similar to the eruptions of Mt. Pelee on Martinique in 1902 and 1929) and radiocarbon ages from the block and ash deposits suggest it occurred about 500 year ago. In addition there have been two steam explosions (phreatic activity) in the Valley of Desolation in 1880 and 1997. Frequent seismic swarms and vigorous and widespread geothermal activity today characterize the island. In fact it is the most worrying of all the Caribbean volcanic areas and there is a general feeling that it (like Montserrat pre-1995) is long overdue for an eruption.

What is of particular concern is that the capital Roseau and most of the islands infrastructure lie on a pyroclastic flow fan derived from the Wotten Waven caldera situated on the eastern outskirts of the capital....."
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Sun Feb 07, 2010 4:20 pm

Boiling Lake on Dominica is a volcanic lake:

http://pasternack.ucdavis.edu/lakes.htm

...This is a very active volcanic lake whose classification is unknown due to limited data. In 2005 it has been undergoing rapid volumetric and temperature changes.
Links:
Boiling Lake overview@
2005 Boiling Lake changes@
Boiling Lake advisories from U West Indies@..



http://www.avirtualdominica.com/geology.cfm

......USES

Economic geology:
geothermal power (potential high, twice that of St Lucia) untapped
aggregate, including lightweight (pumice) some exported
minor accumulations of minerals (low grade sources)
exploration has found copper
minor diatomaceous earth, impure clays, low grade thin layer alumina and limestone
"sponge" which holds and guides water to our very productive rivers

TECTONICS

"Plate tectonics" -- for those interested in modern interpretations of the geology:

The Caribbean 'plate' is overriding the Atlantic 'plate', which is being 'subducted' down and providing materials which become part of the magma which fuels the Lesser Antillean volcanoes.

The locus of the edge of the Caribbean 'plate' is perhaps 50 miles east of Dominica, and the crumbling edges of both plates are responsible for the seismic activity so common off east Dominica and in Southern Dominica .

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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:29 pm

Aha, a 4.3 earthquake near Chicago. I even wonder if I may have felt it--thought at the time that it was the river gorging, a possibly local term for ice jamming, and then breaking, which makes a sound like an explosion.

I'm telling you, I think all this is that Farallon plate moving.

http://www.dailybuzzonline.com/chicago- ... 2010/3531/

Chicago IL Earthquake 2010 : Illinois Magnitude 4.3 Earthquake 2010

Posted on 10 February 2010 by Grace Vertulfo





Chicago IL Earthquake 2010 : Illinois Magnitude 4.3 Earthquake 2010. The U.S. Geological Survey reported a 3.8-magnitude quake at 3:59:33 a.m. centered in a farm field on Plank Road near Hampshire and 3.1 miles underground. Initially, it had reported the magnitude as 4.3 with an epicenter about 5.5 miles east of Sycamore.

Reports of tremors came in from Villa Park, Western Springs, Minooka, Batavia, Naperville, Elgin, Oak Lawn, Des Plaines and even Crown Point, Ind. In Chicago, reports came from the Northwest Side and Logan Square. The USGS has received thousands of reports from as far north as Madison, Wis., and as far south as Bourbonnais.
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:36 pm

http://tinyurl.com/ybt8s93

.....The nature of the fault activity that caused the quake was unclear, Vaughn said. Past quakes that have affected southern Illinois have been in the Wabash Valley or New Madrid seismic zones.

The fault systems in northern Illinois are not as well understood as those in other regions where earthquakes are more common, and more investigation will be needed to determine the cause of this morning's temblor, Vaughan said.

A 5.2-magnitude earthquake struck near downstate West Salem on April 18, 2008. That quake was the worst to hit Illinois since 1968.

By contrast, the earthquake that leveled Haiti on Jan. 12 registered 7.0 on the Richter Scale, meaning it was about 1,600 times the magnitude of the one this morning. Many of the numerous aftershocks to hit the island were approximately the same magnitude as the quake that hit near Sycamore today.

Reports of tremors came in from Villa Park, Western Springs, Minooka, Batavia, Naperville, Elgin, Oak Lawn, Des Plaines and even Crown Point, Ind. In Chicago, reports came from the Northwest Side and Logan Square. The USGS has received thousands of reports from as far north as Madison, Wis., and as far south as Bourbonnais.


Emma Stewart, 8, goes to check on her 23 chickens in Maple Park after the earthquake. (Stacey Wescott / Tribune)

"The whole house shook," said Walter Mockus of St. Charles. "The chimes that hang were all ringing. It was so loud, I thought a plane had gone down."

"It was 4:02 a.m. and I was in bed and felt the whole house shaking," said Bob Bulmash of Warrenville. "But nothing fell down. It lasted about 3 to 5 seconds."

In Naperville, Julie Hannon said the quake shook her out of a sound sleep.

"When you feel an earthquake, it makes you wake up right away," said Hannon, who said she had experienced several quakes when she lived in Japan. "You could feel a shaking and you could hear a rumbling."
"I heard the plates I didn't wash from dinner rattle," said Alice Fabbre of Joliet. "The house shook, but it was very short. At first, I thought it was a snow plow going by."


"It shook me out bed. I was was sleeping and the whole bed was shaking, it was that violent," said Rex Covington, who lives in Plato Center Township, about five miles west of Elgin. He estimated the tremor lasted 5 or 6 seconds.

"When I called 911, she said they felt the shock too and said their whole building in Geneva shook."

In Oak Lawn, Ron Cerevic, who lives on the second floor of an apartment building, said it felt "like someone hit the side of the building."

"The glass shower door shook violently," said Tracey Fry of Carol Stream. "It sounded like someone was in the shower pounding on the door."
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Wed Mar 03, 2010 9:45 pm

Wow, talk about confusing. There's another small plate that shares a boundary with the Caribbean Plate called the North Andes Plate, although it isn't usually mentioned either, just like the Pamana Plate. It seems that it's moving to the northwest. The Panama Plates seems, if I'm reading the maps right, to be moving north and a little bit west, and the Nazca Plate to the east and a bit north. And the South American Plate seems to be moving west by a bit north. But all these articles don't all agree which way everything is moving, so take it all with a grain of salt, even if it supposedly is scientific salt.

But, what it all boils down to is that several of these small plates share boundaries with at least four or, in the case of the Cocos Plate, six other plates. That's a lot of boundaries in conflict.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Andes_Plate

North Andes Plate
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Map of the North Andes Plate (as "Andes du Nord") and its neighbouring plates (in French)

The North Andes Plate is a small tectonic plate located in the northern Andes. It is squeezed between the faster moving South American Plate and the Nazca Plate. Due to the subduction of the Nazca Plate this area is very prone to volcanic and seismic activity.


Image
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Wed Mar 03, 2010 10:24 pm

Uhoh, kiss it goodbye, you Ausies:

http://www.uky.edu/AS/Geology/howell/go ... e04swf.swf

... Volcanism: At about 100 km depth, water is driven out of the subducting plate and into the overlying mantle. Water lowers the melting point of the hot mantle material, allowing magma to form. The magma rises and erupts to form a chain of volcanoes called a "continental volcanic arc." Examples of continental arcs include the Andes of South America and the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States.
- Rare: Note that it is rare for the opposite situation to occur, in which a continental plate subducts beneath an oceanic plate; the reason is that continental plates are less dense than oceanic plates and therefore less likely to subduct. However, an example of a leading edge of a continent being subducted beneath an ocean plate is that of northwestern Australia, which is being subducted slowly beneath the oceanic island of Timor....
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby smoking since 1879 » Thu Mar 04, 2010 12:13 am

But all these articles don't all agree which way everything is moving, so take it all with a grain of salt, even if it supposedly is scientific salt.


I agree dude... i still can't reconcile the plate maps and my trusty globe, seems there is some disconnect :(

my tiny brain prefers this explanation.... but then what the f*** do i know...

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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby Howling Rainbows » Thu Mar 04, 2010 1:53 am

Very interesting Mr. smoking since 1879. Thanks for the post.
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Re: Caribbean geology

Postby chiggerbit » Thu Mar 04, 2010 1:15 pm

This article makes me wonder about that huge wave that hit the ship on the Mediterranean yesterday.

( http://www.sevensidedcube.net/world/201 ... killing-2/ )



http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15498971

Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes.

Cochran ES, Vidale JE, Tanaka S.

Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA. cochran@moho.ess.ucla.edu

We show a correlation between the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes and the occurrence of the strongest tides. The rate of earthquakes varies from the background rate by a factor of 3 with the tidal stress. The highest correlation is found when we assume a coefficient of friction of mu = 0.4 for the crust, although we see good correlation for mu between 0.2 and 0.6. Our results quantify the effect of applied stress on earthquake triggering, a key factor in understanding earthquake nucleation and cascades whereby one earthquake triggers others.
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