'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse

[justdrew]

I wonder if the coast guard knows how to boom yet? I bet they do it wrong again.

[Iamwhomiam]

OK, Giant shears have cut off the leaking pipe, which has not only deformed its roundness, but left a jagged, edge to the remainder, which will make placing a seal on the pipe difficult at best.

IMO, they should now use the saw to effect a clean cut as the pressure bearing down on it from above that caused it to bind has been removed.

Anyone remember seeing this pic of the BOP?

oilspillblowoutprevente.jpg

The Booming School 101 video was first posted to this thread back on P.15 or May 19th by Bruce Dazzling, long before it came to my attention. So all credit for posting it should be directed to him. (I have an unbelievably slow dial-up connection which precludes me from watching any, even the shortest videos. It took me six hours to download this 8 min video before I could view it and then I was shocked by just how raw its language is, & felt it unfortunate that I had forwarded it on to many without being so aware. Oh well...)

Please review the map of the Gulf oil platforms and pipelines posted by 2012 back on P. 21 or May 22. Please note that this map only indicates those 3500+ platforms and wells off our coast, though there are many more off the coasts of other countries bordering the Gulf of Mexico. (I tried to re-post the map but was unable to because it, at 1.1mb was too large a file to upload.)

The reason I've asked you to review this map should become apparent in a moment. Below I've slightly edited the content taken from an email I sent out on Sunday and have now interjected a few comments for this RI audience.

"As I expected, the top kill failed. A site you may want to visit is one called the Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/ , which is primarily a site for those in the industry. It has a wealth of information about this unprecedented environmental catastrophe written by those with hands-on off-shore drilling experience and there you will find a series of screen captures or pictures taken from BP's live underwater robot's cameras."

Back on P. 34 (on May 29th) I wrote "A bomb, especially a nuke, could collapse the seabed, to say nothing of the damage to coastal areas the tsunami from its explosion would create. This would also guarantee, imho, the opening of new vents, if indeed the seabed didn't collapse."

Perhaps out of frustration or because he truly believes this would be an effective remedy, justdrew seemed to be advocating a nuclear bomb be used to seal the leaking well. Here's how he explained the concept: "the nuke has to be placed why down below the sea bed, down into the hard rock. it's about 18k feet from the seabed to the oil producing bottom of the well. the nuke needs to go down to about 10k feet and off to one side (about maybe 50 years or a distance depending on the kind of rock there and the size of the nuke) so it pushes rock shut across the well hole."

Now, please take a look at that 'Gulf of Mexico Mess' map if you haven't already. It would take a month or more to dill a new 'hole' to a depth of 10k feet, as justdrew suggests. I don't know if such a weapon exists that would fit within a 21" hole or that one exists that could withstand the tremendous pressures it would encounter nearly 3 miles beneath the sea.

"There is much too much talk about using a nuclear bomb to seal the leak. Aside from all the obvious implications such an explosion carries, utilizing this tactic would be disastrous not only because there is more than one seabed site spewing oil, but there are far too many other drilling platforms and pipelines its shock wave will affect. Then again, there's also its impact upon the Caribbean plate, and who knows what damage a shift in this fault line would cause. Such an explosion may seal this spewing oil leak, but it might cause new ones nearby or even miles away and could possibly even collapse the seabed, allowing all the millions, perhaps billions of barrels below to be instantly released from the Macondo Prospect.

BP recently has estimated this reserve holds 50 million barrels of oil, but other sources suspect it contains much more. Much, much more.

http://www.theatlantic.com/science/arch ... ulf/57411/

Perhaps as much as 3 billion barrels.

"In September, BP PLC announced what could be the biggest discovery in the gulf in years: a field that could hold three billion barrels."

http://www.gbcghana.com/news/30679detail.html

Buzbee Law Firm of Texas will surely be heard from more, when litigation begins, if it hasn't begun already. They have a good collection of stories, a history of sorts, since this rig's explosion. http://www.txattorneys.com/transocean-bp-explosion.html and a listing of verdicts in their favor against BP & Transocean in the past.

More here from Geology.com: http://geology.com/news/category/gulf-of-mexico.shtml

Also, there was or is a demonstration taking place today in New Orleans. See: http://murderedgulf.wordpress.com/

(Thanks, 2012, for posting the pics of the rally on P. 37.)

But aside from the monumental environmental disaster this one failed deep-water well has and will continue to cause for who knows how long is the sad fact that BP had no intention of putting the oil from this well into production. Their plan was merely to drill it, find the oil and cap it for later exploitation, probably when world supply drops and prices on the market skyrocketed.

"The well was planned to be drilled to 18,000ft, and was to be plugged and abandoned for later completion as a subsea producer."

http://www.offshore-technology.com/proj ... oprospect/

Let's hope that Chevron's Tahiti deep-water well, also in the Gulf, fairs better. This well is now producing 125,000 barrels of oil a day. (5.25 m gal. daily) It's nearly 27,000 feet deep below the seabed."

http://www.chevron.com/news/Press/relea ... 2009-05-06

There are more than 2300 deep-water wells in the Gulf of Mexico.

[2012 Countdown]

Here you go, for your convenience...

[Hugo Farnsworth]

Yes, no nukes, please.

After cutting, the top of the riser has to be "dressed" before it can be used.

It's standard to drill an exploratory well to determine if what the seismic shows is really there. The well is "capped" in the interim. Sometimes it is not used for production. The formation's property are assessed and an estimate of the reserves and production rates are made. An oil company usually only has a certain period of time to drill a well on a lease before the lease expires. I am unsure of the legalities with offshore leases from the US gov, but this is a typical situation onshore with private landowners.

After the assessment, an estimate of the cost of setting up the production is made. Generally, smaller companies partner up or repackage the asset to spread the risk (A&D, acquisitions and divestitures), but big companies like BP often go it alone. Planning, design, and execution can take years. Shell had huge problems with their Perdido field to solve before it could be brought online.

Chevron's Tahiti field has a total production of 125K bopd. There are approximately 10-12 wells with two subsea tie-backs, as far as I could tell from the diagram.

Presently, deepwater accounts for 70% of the total GoM production of oil.

[Iamwhomiam]

Hugo,

Surely you're not suggesting that Chevron drilled 10 or 11 additiional deep water wells and put them all into production
between May 5, 2009 and the end of that year, are you?

The diagram was a projection into the future, I believe, and I believe this one well was producing that volume, 125k bbl
a day, as they projected it would be by ramping up its production.

Therefore I believe the unchecked flow of oil from the Deepwater well is approximately releasing the same amount daily.

Remember, the release to the press came only one day after the first Tahiti well began producing.

"SAN RAMON, Calif., May 6, 2009 – Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) has announced that it has started crude oil
production from its Tahiti Field, the deepest producing field in the Gulf of Mexico. First oil from Tahiti was achieved on
May 5, 2009. Daily production is expected to ramp up to approximately 125,000 barrels of crude oil and 70 million cubic feet
of natural gas before the end of the year.

The Tahiti Field is one of the largest in the Gulf of Mexico. It was discovered in 2002 and is estimated to contain total
recoverable resources of 400 to 500 million oil-equivalent barrels."

[hanshan]

Yes, no nukes, please.

After cutting, the top of the riser has to be "dressed" before it can be used.

It's standard to drill an exploratory well to determine if what the seismic shows is really there. The well is "capped" in the interim. Sometimes it is not used for production. The formation's property are assessed and an estimate of the reserves and production rates are made. An oil company usually only has a certain period of time to drill a well on a lease before the lease expires. I am unsure of the legalities with offshore leases from the US gov, but this is a typical situation onshore with private landowners.

After the assessment, an estimate of the cost of setting up the production is made. Generally, smaller companies partner up or repackage the asset to spread the risk (A&D, acquisitions and divestitures), but big companies like BP often go it alone. Planning, design, and execution can take years. Shell had huge problems with their Perdido field to solve before it could be brought online.

Chevron's Tahiti field has a total production of 125K bopd. There are approximately 10-12 wells with two subsea tie-backs, as far as I could tell from the diagram.

Presently, deepwater accounts for 70% of the total GoM production of oil.

did not know that . tx for the info


...

[Laodicean]

This animation shows one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean. This is not a forecast, but rather, it illustrates a likely dispersal pathway of the oil for roughly four months following the spill. It assumes oil spilling continuously from April 20 to June 20. The colors represent a dilution factor ranging from red (most concentrated) to beige (most diluted). The dilution factor does not attempt to estimate the actual barrels of oil at any spot; rather, it depicts how much of the total oil from the source that will be carried elsewhere by ocean currents. For example, areas showing a dilution factor of 0.01 would have one-hundredth the concentration of oil present at the spill site.

The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios released today that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf. The full set of six simulations can be found here. (Visualization by Tim Scheitlin and Mary Haley, NCAR; based on model simulations.) [Download high resolution video]

Ocean currents likely to carry oil along Atlantic coast

BOULDER—A detailed computer modeling study released today indicates that oil from the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico might soon extend along thousands of miles of the Atlantic coast and open ocean as early as this summer. The modeling results are captured in a series of dramatic animations produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and collaborators.

The research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor. The results were reviewed by scientists at NCAR and elsewhere, although not yet submitted for peer-review publication.

“I’ve had a lot of people ask me, ‘Will the oil reach Florida?’” says NCAR scientist Synte Peacock, who worked on the study. “Actually, our best knowledge says the scope of this environmental disaster is likely to reach far beyond Florida, with impacts that have yet to be understood.”

The computer simulations indicate that, once the oil in the uppermost ocean has become entrained in the Gulf of Mexico’s fast-moving Loop Current, it is likely to reach Florida's Atlantic coast within weeks. It can then move north as far as about Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with the Gulf Stream, before turning east. Whether the oil will be a thin film on the surface or mostly subsurface due to mixing in the uppermost region of the ocean is not known.

The scientists used a powerful computer model to simulate how a liquid released at the spill site would disperse and circulate, producing results that are not dependent on the total amount released. The scientists tracked the rate of dispersal in the top 65 feet of the water and at four additional depths, with the lowest being just above the sea bed.

“The modeling study is analogous to taking a dye and releasing it into water, then watching its pathway,” Peacock says.

The dye tracer used in the model has no actual physical resemblance to true oil. Unlike oil, the dye has the same density as the surrounding water, does not coagulate or form slicks, and is not subject to chemical breakdown by bacteria or other forces.

Peacock and her colleagues stress that the simulations are not a forecast because it is impossible to accurately predict the precise location of the oil weeks or months from now. Instead, the simulations provide an envelope of possible scenarios for the oil dispersal. The timing and course of the oil slick will be affected by regional weather conditions and the ever-changing state of the Gulf’s Loop Current—neither of which can be predicted more than a few days in advance. The dilution of the oil relative to the source will also be impacted by details such as bacterial degradation, which are not included in the simulations.

What is possible, however, is to estimate a range of possible trajectories, based on the best understanding of how ocean currents transport material. The oil trajectory that actually occurs will depend critically both on the short-term evolution of the Loop Current, which feeds into the Gulf Stream, and on the state of the overlying atmosphere. The flow in the model represents the best estimate of how ocean currents are likely to respond under typical wind conditions.
Picking up speed

Oil has been pouring into the Gulf of Mexico since April 20 from a blown-out undersea well, the result of an explosion and fire on an oil rig. The spill is located in a relatively stagnant area of the Gulf, and the oil so far has remained relatively confined near the Louisiana and Alabama coastlines, although there have been reports of small amounts in the Loop Current.

The model simulations show that a liquid released in the surface ocean at the spill site is likely to slowly spread as it is mixed by the ocean currents until it is entrained in the Loop Current. At that point, speeds pick up to about 40 miles per day, and when the liquid enters the Atlantic’s Gulf Stream it can travel at speeds up to about 100 miles per day, or 3,000 miles per month.

The six model simulations released today all have different Loop Current characteristics, and all provide slightly different scenarios of how the oil might be dispersed. The simulations all bring the oil to south Florida and then up the East Coast. However, the timing of the oil’s movement differs significantly depending on the configuration of the Loop Current.

The scenarios all differ in their starting conditions, a technique used in weather and climate forecasting to determine how uncertainty about current conditions might affect predictions of the future.

Additional model studies are currently under way, looking further out in time, that will indicate what might happen to the oil in the Atlantic.

“We have been asked if and when remnants of the spill could reach the European coastlines,” says Martin Visbeck, a member of the research team with IFM-GEOMAR, University of Kiel, Germany. “Our assumption is that the enormous lateral mixing in the ocean together with the biological disintegration of the oil should reduce the pollution to levels below harmful concentrations. But we would like to have this backed up by numbers from some of the best ocean models.”

The scientists are using the Parallel Ocean Program, which is the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model, a powerful software tool designed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy. They are conducting the simulations at supercomputers based at the New Mexico Computer Applications Center and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

http://www2.ucar.edu/news/ocean-current ... ntic-coast

[82_28]

Poor beleaguered BP. Now the government is sending them a bill for $69 million. 69 MILLION!?!?!? That's it so far?

BP spill forces choice between ecology and economy

GULF SHORES, Ala. —

Forced to perform a painful kind of environmental triage, emergency workers concentrated on protecting marshes and inlets from the approaching BP oil slick Thursday and left one of the Gulf Coast's biggest tourist attractions - its white-sand beaches - largely undefended.

As BP struggled a mile underwater to cut and cap the blown-out well, the decision to sacrifice parts of the shoreline - made weeks ago by state and Coast Guard officials - came under fire from Alabama's governor.

"We could lose an entire tourist season because of this. It would be absolutely devastating," Gov. Bob Riley said in an interview with The Associated Press. The state's two coastal counties deliver 35 percent of its tourism dollars, mostly spending by beachgoers.

In deciding to put the marshes first, emergency officials reasoned that they had enough time and containment boom to shield the Gulf's fragile ecology or its endangered economy, but not both. Also, they argued that beaches will be easier to clean, as well as harder to protect because of the action of the waves against the floating barriers.

The strategy pits environmentalists against the tourism industry, and also casts doubt on repeated promises by the Obama administration to bring to bear whatever resources are necessary to battle the spill.

The no-win decision left Gulf residents and visitors with an aching sadness and a sense of futility, knowing that the first fingers of the slick were only miles away.

"The reason I'm here now is because I'm afraid it's going to be gone," said Mark Johnecheck, a retired Navy captain, as he watched the surf crash ashore at Pensacola Beach, Fla. "I don't know what else they can do. It just makes you feel helpless."

Meanwhile, BP struggled to contain the flow, slicing off the bent well pipe with giant shears Thursday after a diamond-tipped saw got stuck halfway through the job. But the cut was jagged and the next step in the process - placing a cap over the gusher to capture most of the oil and funnel it to the surface - could prove more difficult. The irregular cut means the cap won't fit as snugly as officials hoped.

"We'll have to see when we get the containment cap on it just how effective it is," said Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the government's point man for the disaster. "It will be a test-and-adapt phase as we move ahead, but it's a significant step forward."

Officials said the cap could be lowered into place as early as Thursday night.

The next best hope for stopping the flow is two relief wells that are now being dug. But they won't be finished until August.

Anywhere between 21 million and 46 million gallons of oil has spewed into the Gulf, according to government estimates.

advertising

BP CEO Tony Hayward promised Thursday that the company would clean up every drop of oil and "restore the shoreline to its original state."

"BP will be here for a very long time. We realize this is just the beginning," he said.

On shore, the swirling, multicolored sheen of oil was reported to be within four miles of the Panhandle coast.

"Our whole lives are intertwined with the river and the bay. Our oysters are what we depend on," said Anita Grove, executive director of the Apalachicola Bay Chamber of Commerce. "It's a frightening thing to all of us because our livelihoods, anywhere in Florida pretty much, depend on the water."

Oil washed ashore on the eastern side of Mobile Bay at Alabama's Fort Morgan, which Confederate forces used to bombard Union ships during the Civil War. The white-sand beach in front of the historic structure was littered with gooey brown globs of oil. Dark patches of what appeared to be oil hung in the surf.

The Florida Department of Environmental Protection said that more a quarter-million feet of boom has been placed along the most sensitive areas of the Panhandle.

P.C. Wu, a city councilman in Pensacola, said political leaders faced a difficult decision. Ultimately, he said, they decided trying to keep oil from entering marshes - where it could kill sea grasses and move inland - was a more realistic and fruitful choice than trying to prevent it from washing onto beaches.

"If it hits the beach, the beach will probably be the easiest thing to clean up," he said. "But if it hits the grass, it automatically starts killing all the grass."

The estuaries also have calmer waters, Wu said, where booms are more effective. "I don't know how effective the booms would be out at the beach with the wave actions," he said.

Laura Lee, a spokeswoman for the Pensacola Bay Area Convention and Visitors Bureau, said tourist officials were confident local leaders have done all they can to minimize the effects of the oil.

"I think everybody here is pretty frustrated that the oil has not been shut off, and that's got to happen first," she said.

Karen Bjorndal, director of the Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research at the University of Florida, said she would protect marshes and inlets first because they harbor a richer diversity of life than the beaches. Also, she said marshes serve as nurseries for the Gulf, supplying nutrients that are key to the undersea foodchain and harboring creatures that spend their earliest weeks in marshes before heading to open water.

But she admitted: "It very much is a Solomon's choice."

The damage to the environment was chillingly evident Thursday on East Grand Terre Island along the Louisiana coast, where workers found birds coated in thick, black goo. Images shot by an Associated Press photographer show Brown pelicans drenched in thick oil, struggling and flailing in the surf.

The latest attempt to control the spill was considered risky because slicing away a section of the 20-inch-wide riser removed a kink in the pipe, and that could temporarily increase the flow of oil by as much as 20 percent. But once the cut was completed, Allen said it was not immediately clear whether the flow had increased.

President Barack Obama will return to the Louisiana coast Friday to assess the latest efforts, his third trip to the region since the disaster unfolded April 20 with an explosion that killed 11 workers aboard an offshore drilling rig. It will be the president's second visit in a week.

The White House said the government is sending BP a $69 million bill for the costs of the spill so far.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/n ... coast.html

[Nordic]

BP should, at the very least, in addition to being billed for whatever is happening as far as the cleanup, be forced to pay for the entire dollar value of whatever economic hit the local people have had to take because of it.

They should be paying all the fishermen their full day rate for sitting around NOT fishing. Etc. etc. etc.

Doesn't matter how much it costs.

I like how 69 million is just a teeny little bit below the 75 million cap. It's like they're trying to make it look as though it's not REALLY up to $75 million yet, that the 75 million is actually reasonable.

I think I've said it before here but I'll say it again -- there's one thing this disaster is proving to the world, and it's that Big Corporations run the world, not governments. And that Big Corporations operate with absolutely no consideration as to governments and borders except in those situations where they need to send in the military to pave the way for their inter-national looting.

I also realized the other night that our current economic and cultural age, this period of time, will, in the future, be referred to as The Corporate Age.

[Simulist]

Um... I need someone to "talk me down" here. I'm really hoping my imagination is running WAY the hell away with itself...



After I looked at the YouTube video posted by Laodicean, the person sitting next to me said I looked like I'd seen a ghost.

This was my thought process:

• Oil in the Atlantic.
• Lots of oil in the Atlantic.
• Oil is dark in color, rises to the surface, and floats.
• Oil over the surface of the water presumably has some effect on water temperature, increasing it.

• How much will this increase the water temperature in the North Atlantic?

• What effect might this have on the "temperature differential" needed to pump the North Atlantic Current? Will it slow this current down, or possibly stop it altogether?

•> Is this not the balanced mechanism that currently keeps Europe from freezing?

These could be terribly important questions, potentially.* (But I sincerely hope that they aren't.)

Does anyone know the answer to these questions?


_________
* Especially if this gushing "leak" isn't stopped soon.

[Laodicean]

I wouldn't be surprised you're seeing the endgame, Sim...

You're already at least three moves ahead.

[2012 Countdown]

Yeah, thats some 'simulation' there...and as some comments at youtube link, 'this assumes no hurricane'...

===========


Dozens of oil-drenched pelicans floated miserably around Grand Terre Island. A few hobbled onto the beach.
A bird is mired in oil on the beach at East Grand Terre Island along the Louisiana coast on Thursday, June 3, 2010. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)









http://www.wwltv.com/news/slideshows/Bi ... lery=y&c=y

=======

Rescued turtles fighting for their lives
osted on June 3, 2010 at 5:39 PM
Updated today at 5:45 PM

NEW ORLEANS - The Gulf of Mexico is home to five species of sea turtles - all of them endangered. And now search crews have stepped up efforts to rescue them from the oil and bring them to shore.
"All of the turtles that we've seen so far, when we open their mouths, have oil in their mouths and they've also got oil down in their throat as far as we can see," said Dr. Charles Innis, a Veterinarian and reptile specialist in town to help from New England Aquarium.
The sea turtles, found by search crews, were fighting for their lives. Most of them are juveniles, one to two years old, unable to swim out from under the thick, heavy oil.
"They presumably would die from the sun beating down on top of them overheating, drowning eventually" explained Dr. Innis.





http://www.wwltv.com/news/gulf-oil-spil ... 67204.html

============
Top New Orleans chefs get unappetizing look at oil spill
by Paul Murphy / Eyewitness News
wwltv.com
Posted on June 3, 2010 at 6:28 PM
NEW ORLEANS -- Some of New Orleans' most famous chefs and restaurant owners boarded boats at the Myrtle Grove Marina to see for themselves the slow moving disaster on the water.
They passed miles of oil stained boom, doing little to keep BP's toxic sludge out of the marsh grass in Barataria Bay.
"There's no cleanup," said Chef Duke LoCicero of Cafe Giovanni. "Where are the cleanup guys? Why are we sitting around letting this happen? I don't understand it?"
"I wanted to know from firsthand how bad it was," said Chef Paul Prudhomme of K-Paul's. "I've seen good stuff and I've seen bad stuff. We just got to wait."
Oysterman Dave Cvitanovich pulled up some oysters from his lease near Wilkinson's Bayou.
"There's 1150 acres of that stuff right there that are mine," said Cvitanovich. "Two weeks from now you're going to come back and you're going to see nothing but open shell."
The oysters in Barataria Bay are healthy and growing, but because of the oil now threatening their leases, oystermen fear this year's crop could be a total loss.
"Those oyster beds are 15 to 20 miles inland," said Drago's owner Tommy Cvitanovich. "For that oil to already be that far inland and we weren't able to stop it in the outside waters, it's truly sad."
The restaurateurs say the trip to the marsh gave them a greater understanding of the magnitude of the oil leak and its potential effects on the hospitality industry.
"Being out there today, I want to fight more than I ever have," said Dickie Brennan, owner of Bourbon House Seafood Restaurant. "I think we can still get out there and salvage a lot of things."
Congressman Joseph Cao spoke with the group back at the marina.
"I believe that if the president would come here tomorrow to actually have a dozen oysters, shrimp from the Gulf, some boiled crabs, it would send a message very loudly that seafood from this area is absolutely safe," said Rep. Cao, R-Louisiana.
Safe, but according to the chefs, in short supply because of the spill.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/gulf-oil-spil ... 67879.html

==============
Breaking News »
Gulf spill pushes 'thick, black cake-mix type oil' into Barataria Bay
By Allen Powell II, The Times Picayune
June 03, 2010, 7:15PM

"It's no longer sheen or tar balls," Roberts said from Lafitte on Thursday evening. "It is thick black cake-mix type oil."
Ted Jackson, a photographer for The Times-Picayune, said he hadn't seen oil of such a heavy volume in Barataria Bay.
"I've flown out there before, and you were looking for oil and you'd find it in small streaks when you caught the light just right," Jackson said. "Today when you flew into Barataria Bay from the north, you said 'Oh my God.' It was streaking everywhere."
Jackson said the consistency of the oil was heavier than he has seen off-shore. "As you got closer to it it was clumps, black and brown. You'd see big, black blobs in the sheen."

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill ... black.html

[Iamwhomiam]

2012,

Those are but the first of many yet to come painful images we will be seeing.
Thank you, as I am far removed from the Gulf area and cannot help.

So sad, really... and all so unnecessary. We are addicted to oil and if this tragic event
isn't enough for us to go cold turkey... well, I do not know what possibly could.

OIL!

[Hugo Farnsworth]

Hugo,

Surely you're not suggesting that Chevron drilled 10 or 11 additiional deep water wells and put them all into production
between May 5, 2009 and the end of that year, are you?

The diagram was a projection into the future, I believe, and I believe this one well was producing that volume, 125k bbl
a day, as they projected it would be by ramping up its production.

Therefore I believe the unchecked flow of oil from the Deepwater well is approximately releasing the same amount daily.

Remember, the release to the press came only one day after the first Tahiti well began producing.

"SAN RAMON, Calif., May 6, 2009 – Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) has announced that it has started crude oil
production from its Tahiti Field, the deepest producing field in the Gulf of Mexico. First oil from Tahiti was achieved on
May 5, 2009. Daily production is expected to ramp up to approximately 125,000 barrels of crude oil and 70 million cubic feet
of natural gas before the end of the year.

The Tahiti Field is one of the largest in the Gulf of Mexico. It was discovered in 2002 and is estimated to contain total
recoverable resources of 400 to 500 million oil-equivalent barrels."

The current record was set by Shell's Bullwinkle platform with their Troika well, 41.5K bopd, but that was not sustainable without damaging the reservoir, so it was cut back. Prior to that, another well drilled by Shell on the Mars platform had metered at 20K or 30K bopd and set the GoM record. There is a trade-off between maximum production rate and what can be recovered--this is adjusted most carefully for each well in the field. Most wells in the GoM are not the biggest oil producers on the global stage--they usually produce copious amounts of gas along with it. That's why many offshore production facilities in the GoM are so costly--the gas has to be processed and piped along with the oil.

There was an Iraqi well that made 100,000 bopd for quite some time back in the early 20th century--its wellhead is in the courtyard of BP's London office. And the monster that has never been beat was a well in Baku, Russia in the very early 20th century that made 300,000 bopd. It was produced with a canal as a flowline.

As for how Chevron developed the Tahiti field, I do not know the particulars. It was discovered 8 years ago, so my guess is that they drilled some wells prior to the production platform being put online. Two tie-backs were already on the sea bed. This is typical to get financing at good interest rates for the production facilities and to ensure that there are enough recoverable reserves to pay for the investment. Some fields are "tricky", i.e., their production rates fall more quickly than expected (Atlantis, for example), or there is less recoverable oil than what was estimated. The key words in the article are "expected to ramp up to approximately..."

As I have posted before on RI, a proper estimate of the maximum potential production of the Macondo well can easily be made by a petrophysicist who has the e-logs of the well. Understandably, no one wants to do that. My best guess would be 20-30K bopd.

[justdrew]

Um... I need someone to "talk me down" here. I'm really hoping my imagination is running WAY the hell away with itself...

This was my thought process:

• Oil in the Atlantic.
• Lots of oil in the Atlantic.
• Oil is dark in color, rises to the surface, and floats.
• Oil over the surface of the water presumably has some effect on water temperature, increasing it.

• How much will this increase the water temperature in the North Atlantic?

• What effect might this have on the "temperature differential" needed to pump the North Atlantic Current? Will it slow this current down, or possibly stop it altogether?

•> Is this not the balanced mechanism that currently keeps Europe from freezing?

These could be terribly important questions, potentially.* (But I sincerely hope that they aren't.)

Does anyone know the answer to these questions?

* Especially if this gushing "leak" isn't stopped soon.

probably no one knows. the surface water is meant to be warm there in that stage of the Atlantic conveyor, but... I wonder if it might serve as an insulator and actually cause the water much below the oil layer to be cooler, and darker. so, not good. but... it's not clear how thick that'll really be, it seems a part of it will evaporate into the air, a lot of it gets eaten by microbes, clumps end up sinking eventually, I just took a dose of "it may not be so bad" info, and maybe, maybe that'll be the case, if things can get back to relative normal in three years... I wouldn't be so surprised by that. Still, a vast amount of effort needs to be spent cleaning up the plastics too. There's no getting around a huge animal and possibly plant die-off, so commercialization is surely screwed for years. There needs to be some justice for the animal life at some point, this kind of wanton destruction is just not remotely acceptable.