'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse

[stickdog99]

BP's Dispersant Disaster

stickdog I was just wondering what had become of you. Very glad to see you here!

Thanks for the concern. I tried to take a break from my usual cyber American empire death thrashing after Obama was elected (not that I thought Obama was going to, ahem, change anything), but this BP disaster is so damn sickening that it has drawn me back in.

[Jeff]

[Peregrine]

BP Plans to Replace Containment Cap Next Month

[DoYouEverWonder]

BP Plans to Replace Containment Cap Next Month

In the meantime - Officials say tarballs aren't a major health hazard for beachgoers

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/destinat ... ches_N.htm


Spill Baby Spill.

[2012 Countdown]

Nelson talking about a possible damaged seabed. Sounds like he gets how life changing and enormous this is.
Its funny how your mind adjusts. Thinking of survival, I console myself in thinking we will still have crayfish and alligator to eat (and other inland food).
Some callers (to local radio) are saying things like 'just wait till it hits the beautiful sandy beaches of Florida, I'll bet the government will act then'.
It will be interesting to note the difference, if any. If I were Florida though, I wouldn't count on it.
I think the keys are in the most danger. I've been scuba diving at a few coral reefs down there. Its as beautiful as it is fragile, and that coral takes 100's of years to form.


Here's more pelicans... they're such docile, beautiful things.






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Many Gulf federal judges have oil links
Thirty-seven of the 64 active or senior judges in key Gulf Coast districts in Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida have links to oil, gas and related energy industries, including some who own stocks or bonds in BP PLC, Halliburton or Transocean — and others who regularly list receiving royalties from oil and gas production wells, according to the reports judges must file each year. The AP reviewed 2008 disclosure forms, the most recent available.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100606/ap_ ... _conflicts

===

What a joke. The corporations own the politicians, the judges, and the military.
Operationally, they own us too.

[DoYouEverWonder]

We are no longer the United States of America, we're the United States of Corporations.

[DoYouEverWonder]

Nelson talking about a possible damaged seabed. Sounds like he gets how life changing and enormous this is.
Its funny how your mind adjusts. Thinking of survival, I console myself in thinking we will still have crayfish and alligator to eat (and other inland food).
Some callers (to local radio) are saying things like 'just wait till it hits the beautiful sandy beaches of Florida, I'll bet the government will act then'.
It will be interesting to note the difference, if any. If I were Florida though, I wouldn't count on it.
I think the keys are in the most danger. I've been scuba diving at a few coral reefs down there. Its as beautiful as it is fragile, and that coral takes 100's of years to form.

I guess I'll have to take up cast netting. We've got lots of mercury filled talapia around here. Uck!

At least the gators aren't too bad but nothing will ever be the same as a fresh caught redfish.

[Jeff]

Senator: Deepwater Well Integrity May Be Shot, Meaning Oil Could Be Leaking Straight Up From The Seabed

Joe Weisenthal | Jun. 7, 2010, 4:26 PM |

This may be the real nightmare scenario in the Gulf. Some have speculated that the inner integrity of the Deepwater well could be blown (not just the top) and that oil could be leaking out from the side, making it hard to imagine how you might go about plugging the thing.

...

http://www.businessinsider.com/senator- ... bed-2010-6

BP Well Bore And Casing Integrity May Be Blown, Says Florida’s Sen. Nelson

Oil and gas are leaking from the seabed surrounding the BP Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida told Andrea Mitchell today on MSNBC. Nelson, one of the most informed and diligent Congressmen on the BP gulf oil spill issue, has received reports of leaks in the well, located in the Mississippi Canyon sector. This is potentially huge and devastating news.

If Nelson is correct in that assertion, and he is smart enough to not make such assertions lightly, so I think they must be taken at face value, it means the well casing and well bore are compromised and the gig is up on containment pending a completely effective attempt to seal the well from the bottom via successful “relief wells”. In fact, I have confirmed with Senator Nelson’s office that they are fully aware of the breaking news and significance of what the Senator said to Andrea Mitchell.

...

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2010/ ... -be-blown/

[2012 Countdown]

in Jeff's second link

As Sir Richard Mottram famously said:
We’re all fucked. I’m fucked. You’re fucked. The whole [thing] is fucked. It’s the biggest cock-up ever. We’re all completely fucked.

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2010/ ... -be-blown/

Looks like it.

[DoYouEverWonder]

Obama to Reopen Oil Drilling

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703303904575292210472764880.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

These Ivy League assholes just don't get it.

[Laodicean]

[Ben D]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/us/08flow.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Rate of Oil Leak, Still Not Clear, Puts Doubt on BP

By JUSTIN GILLIS and HENRY FOUNTAIN Published: June 7, 2010
Times Topic: Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill (2010)

On Monday, BP said a cap was capturing 11,000 barrels of oil a day from the well. The official government estimate of the flow rate is 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day, which means the new device should be capturing the bulk of the oil.

But is it? With no consensus among experts on how much oil is pouring from the wellhead, it is difficult — if not impossible — to assess the containment cap’s effectiveness. BP has stopped trying to calculate a flow rate on its own, referring all questions on that subject to the government. The company’s liability will ultimately be determined in part by how many barrels of oil are spilled.

The immense undersea gusher of oil and gas, seen on live video feed, looks as big as it did last week, before the company sliced through the pipe known as a riser to install its new collection device.

At least one expert, Ira Leifer, who is part of a government team charged with estimating the flow rate, is convinced that the operation has made the leak worse, perhaps far worse than the 20 percent increase that government officials warned might occur when the riser was cut.

Dr. Leifer said in an interview on Monday that judging from the video, cutting the pipe might have led to a several-fold increase in the flow rate from the well.

“The well pipe clearly is fluxing way more than it did before,” said Dr. Leifer, a researcher at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “By way more, I don’t mean 20 percent, I mean multiple factors.”

Asked about the flow rate at a news conference at the White House on Monday, Adm. Thad W. Allen, the Coast Guard commander in charge of the federal response to the spill, said that as BP captured more of the oil, the government should be able to offer better estimates of the flow from the wellhead by tracking how much reaches the surface.

“That is the big unknown that we’re trying to hone in and get the exact numbers on,” Admiral Allen said. “And we’ll make those numbers known as we get them. We’re not trying to low-ball it or high-ball it. It is what it is.”

Speaking at a briefing in Houston on Monday, Kent Wells, a BP executive involved in the containment effort, declined to estimate the total flow and how much it might have increased. He said that video images from the wellhead showed a “curtain of oil” leaking from under the cap.

“How much that is, we’d all love to know,” Mr. Wells said. “It’s really difficult to tell.”

- snip-

[Jeff]

BP well may be spewing 100,000 barrels a day, scientist says

Monday, June 7, 2010

WASHINGTON — BP's runaway Deepwater Horizon well may be spewing what the company once-called its worst case scenario — 100,000 barrels a day, a member of the government panel told McClatchy Monday.

"In the data I've seen, there's nothing inconsistent with BP's worst case scenario," Ira Leifer, an associate researcher at the Marine Science Institute of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a member of the government's Flow Rate Technical Group, told McClatchy.

Leifer said that based on satellite data he's examined, the rate of flow from the well has been increasing over time, especially since BP's "top kill" effort failed last month to stanch the flow. The decision last week to sever the well's damaged riser pipe from the its blowout preventer in order to install a "top hat" containment device has increased the flow still more _ far more, Leifer said, than the 20 percent that BP and the Obama administration predicted.

Leifer noted that BP had estimated before the April 20 explosion that caused the leak that a freely flowing pipe from the well would release 100,000 barrels of oil a day in the worst-case scenario.

The oil was not freely flowing before the top kill or before they cut the pipe, Leifer said, but once the riser pipe was cleared, there was little blocking the oil's rise to the top of the blowout preventer. Video images confirm that the flow of black oil is unimpeded.

"If the pipe behaved as a worst-case estimate you would have no visual change in the flow, and I don't see any obvious visual change," Leifer said. "How much larger I don't know but let's just quote BP."

How much oil is gushing from the well has been the subject of heated debate for weeks, with independent scientists suggesting that as much as 95,000 barrels could be gushing into the Gulf of Mexico each day. For more than a month BP and the Obama administration placed the figure at 5,000 barrels a day.

On Monday, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the Obama administration's point man on the unfolding disaster, said that the government and BP still don't know how much oil is escaping. The "top hat" containment device captured 11,000 barrels of oil on Sunday, Allen said, and that BP was moving a second ship into position above the well to bring to 20,000 barrels the amount of crude that could be processed daily.

Allen also said that BP is moving a production platform with far greater capacity to the Gulf though that equipment may not be in place for several weeks.

“We just know that's their capacity. We still haven’t established what the flow rate is,” he said. “That is the big unknown that we’re trying to hone in and get the exact numbers on."

Even so, BP’s videos of the gusher showed black oil continuing to flow heavily from all around the wellhead as the crude leaks from around the cap’s edges.

A team of experts from government science agencies and universities estimated last week that at a minimum 12,000 to 25,000 barrels a day were flowing from the well, but the team declined to estimate an upper end for the flow because the information they received from BP was inadequate.

Leifer, who is described in the flow rate's preliminary report released last week as a "world reknown researcher" who's published more than 60 scientific articles, said BP still has not delivered the data that scientists need for an accurate appraisal of the spill's size.

"We're still waiting," he said.

...


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/06/07/9 ... ewing.html

[Jeff]

Damage from spill turning Gulf into ‘biological black hole’

Richard Blackwell

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Published on Tuesday, Jun. 08, 2010 6:00AM EDT Last updated on Tuesday, Jun. 08, 2010 6:07AM EDT

Canadian undersea explorer Joe MacInnis led the first team that dived under the North Pole, and is among the few who have explored the wrecks of the Titanic and the Edmund Fitzgerald. He was also one of 28 academics, scientists and government and private-sector experts who met in Washington this month with movie director James Cameron – who has years of experience in deep-water exploration – to map out possible new strategies for dealing with the huge oil spill now spreading through the Gulf of Mexico.

Dr. MacInnis, one of the world’s most respected ocean scientists, talked to reporter Richard Blackwell about the impact of the spill and why it is so damaging to a crucially important region of the world’s oceans.


How do you feel personally about the spill?

I am devastated, angry and frustrated. I feel so sympathetic to those people who live in the Gulf and I feel terrible for the ocean.

The world’s largest ecosystem is [already] under enormous stress from all kinds of things – from global warming to acidification to overfishing – and suddenly the Gulf of Mexico, the ninth-largest body of water in the world, takes this colossal hit. It’s [now] a biological black hole.

Where is the damage worst?

Everybody has been talking about what is going on at the surface, but there is a mile between the seabed and the surface. What is happening there? This is the time of year when the young of snapper and gill fish and lobster and all the incredible ecosystem components are spawning, and they are dying by the uncounted trillions. It is the killing fields.

...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... le1595582/

[ninakat]

Wait, Are Satellite Images Showing ANOTHER Gulf Oil Leak?
Gus Lubin | Jun. 4, 2010, 11:19 AM

Is there a separate Gulf oil leak at Platform #23051?

Satellite analysis blog SkyTruth has identified what looks like a smaller oil discharge coming from a rig located a few mile from the Mississippi Delta. SkyTruth analyst John Amos asks readers for any information on the possible second leak.

This rig is owned by Taylor Energy, according to an MMS database. We have contacted the firm and are waiting for comment.

Oil guru Matthew Simmons has also suggested there could be a second, larger leak (although the Platform #23051 leak looks smaller than Deepwater Horizon).



+ + +

CONFIRMED: Aerial Video Shows Second Leaking Rig Near The Deepwater Horizon
Gus Lubin | Jun. 8, 2010, 9:18 AM

Earlier we published speculation from satellite analytics group SkyTruth that there may be a second leak in the Gulf (article shown above). A freelance pilot and photographer confirmed these rumors and a possible coverup.

Photographer J Henry Fair says the new photos show an oil plume originating from the Ocean Saratoga rig, which is operated by Diamond Offshore. A work ship in the foreground appeared to be applying dispersants to the oil. A larger rig in the background may be discharging another leak.

This leak was reported last night by Alabama local news. NOAA also mentioned this leak in a April 30 oil slick map (PDF).

Diamond Offshore spokesman Gary Krenek tells us his company was hired by Taylor Energy to "plug and abandon" the existing well. He declined to comment on the reported leak.

The rig was damaged by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, according to Times Picayune. However, Diamond Offshore tells us, however, it was not hired to close the well until 2009. We're waiting on Taylor and NOAA for an statement on how long and how much oil has been leaking.

UPDATE: A NOAA spokeswoman said "scientists are looking into the leak."

Meanwhile, Coast Guard rep Zachary Zubricki tells us "this is not a story."