'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse

[Nordic]

That's been effectively debunked. i'm pretty sure somebody here already posted the debunking.

[ninakat]

NY Times weighs in. Check out the little gem from Obama in bold below.

Results Called Ambiguous as Test of BP Well Continues

By HENRY FOUNTAIN
Published: July 16, 2010

A day after BP closed off the flow of oil from its runaway well in the Gulf of Mexico, officials said the signs from a crucial test of the well’s condition were encouraging.

Pressure readings in the well rose significantly in the 24 hours after the valves were closed on a cap at the top of the well, an indication that the well was in good shape. But officials voiced caution, saying that they had expected that the pressure might rise even higher, and that the possibility of damage from the April 20 blowout could not yet be ruled out.

Another possibility, they said, is that the reservoir has been depleted by three months of gushing oil.

“This is generally good news,” Thad W. Allen, the retired Coast Guard admiral who is overseeing the spill response, said Friday afternoon, about 24 hours into what was expected to be at least a 48-hour test. “But we want to be careful not to do any harm or create a situation that could not be reversed.”

He said that so far the test results were ambiguous, and that the possibility remained that the well had been breached and that oil and gas were escaping into the surrounding rock and perhaps even into the gulf. But there were no visible signs of a leak.

The test, which ended — at least temporarily — what had been a three-month gusher, is intended to determine whether the well can withstand pressure from the sealing cap.

The procedure will continue in six-hour increments, Admiral Allen said, and new data will be reviewed by scientists and engineers from the government, BP and other companies. He said there would be “enhanced monitoring” of the seabed, including acoustic tests that could detect small amounts of methane bubbling into the water, which would be evidence of damage to the well.

At the White House earlier Friday, President Obama cautioned against concluding that the corner had been turned in the oil disaster, which began with the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drill rig. He said it was still possible for there to be complications that “could be even more catastrophic” than the original leak.

Appearing in the Rose Garden before taking off for a short Maine vacation, Mr. Obama said all decisions about the fate of the well would be based on science, “not based on P.R., not based on politics.”

Kent Wells, a senior vice president of BP, said the company was watching the seafloor with cameras on robotic submersibles and using sonar and other equipment to look for leaks. So far, he said, “there is no evidence that the well doesn’t have integrity.”

When the test began, Admiral Allen said, pressures increased in a way that would be expected if the well was undamaged. But the level reached was lower than scientists had predicted if the well was intact. And pressures are now rising very slowly.

A breach could be one reason for the lower pressure readings, he said. But a more benign explanation would be that so much oil had spewed from the out-of-control well that the reservoir, 13,000 feet below the seabed, had been depleted.

“The pressure buildup we’re seeing is with modeling we did around reservoir depletion,” Mr. Wells said. “The longer we model these trends, the more we’ll convince ourselves that that’s the case.”

At some point — perhaps after 48 hours, as originally planned — a decision will be made about what to do with the well over the near term, until a relief well is finished that will permanently plug it. He said leaving the valves closed beyond the test remained a possibility.

But, Mr. Wells said, if the monitoring detects oil or gas coming up through the sea floor, engineers could reopen the well immediately.

“At least initially that would involve some venting of oil into the gulf,” he said. “We’re hopeful that’s not going to be the case.”


Peter Baker contributed reporting from Washington and Liz Robbins from New York.

[82_28]

This article has been somewhat debunked upthread btw. I understand it is somewhat "fun" to think about as we have no idea what it must be like at those ocean depths, let alone the crazy ass 5 mile long tube into the Earth this shit is gushing from and then no idea from there just what this reservoir must look like.

Sure, it's all possible. Who the hell knows.

As a recovered atheist, but certainly no religionist. I do firmly believe there is life down there. Methane based life. We have tapped into hell. Of course, physically if they (the methane based lifeforms) withstand the pressures likely at those depths of the Earth, they would explode once they contacted our atmosphere. It is a VERY STUPID idea, granted. But I kinda believe it. Oh I said "firmly". Well anyways, you get the point.

It makes a fun sci-fi story nevertheless. Even though we'll likely never get to read it.

[Jeff]

BP cap tests suggest possible leak

Last Updated: Friday, July 16, 2010 | 6:53 PM ET


Pressure readings from a new containment cap that stopped the flow of oil from BP's broken wellhead indicate there could be a leak down in the well, the U.S. government's point man on the disaster says.

Developments were "generally good news" but close monitoring must continue, retired coast guard admiral Thad Allen said on a conference call.

Engineers continue to look for evidence of leaks as pressure readings from the cap are examined, Allen said.

He said scientists believe the pressure levels could indicate that the reservoir — the source of the oil — is depleting after a three-month spill or that there's a leak somewhere down in the well.

"We don't know because we don't know the exact condition of the well bore," Allen said.

...


http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/07/1 ... -test.html

[battleshipkropotkin]

Shit. I shoulda read back through the thread. Sorry I posted it again post-debunking.

[No_Baseline]

“This is generally good news,” Thad W. Allen, the retired Coast Guard admiral who is overseeing the spill response, said Friday afternoon, about 24 hours into what was expected to be at least a 48-hour test. “But we want to be careful not to do any harm or create a situation that could not be reversed.”

Okay, WTH? wasn't the Coast Guard, our Government-Run Coast Guard (on paper) under jurisdiction to BP none other than eight weeks ago? They claimed to journalists on camera that they were operating under BP's rules

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6496749n&tag=api

Now, they are this cautious? what further harm could they incur if it doesn't involve methane, pressure, fissures in the seafloor, something already beyond a cure?

I dunno, if they aren't forthcoming, and they aren't, what do they know, or speculate?

[Project Willow]

Photos by Zoe Strauss
http://zoestrauss.blogspot.com/
http://onthebeach-zs.blogspot.com/

[justdrew]

but... I thought the failure of the "top kill" attempt already proved that the well was compromised.

===

the ultimate junk shot 2:
Plugging the Gulf oil leak with the works of Ayn Rand

[Hugo Farnsworth]

Most engineers I spoke with thought the top kill was a ridiculous PR stunt. It merely proved that you can't fill a bathtub with a hole in its bottom.

BP may have lucked out here. Not so much the amount of pressure, but the pressure plotted over time is what tells the tale. So far, so good. I think they will find out that there was a good bit of salt water coming out of the well, which would reduce the surface shut-in pressure.

(Un)safe practices at this point would dictate with a so-so wellhead and casing run to the bottom of the hole, one might attempt to produce the well partially if the surface vessels can process all of the oil and gas that would be made by the well, thereby reducing the pressure and stress on the wellhead. This has to balanced against the erosion of the casing string if production proceeded. This should only be done if no oil or gas is leaked into the ocean, of course.

Under no circumstances should there be any attempt to bullhead or top kill the well at this point.

[No_Baseline]

Ninakat:
Re: 'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse
BP Gulf Oil Spill Well Integrity Test Failing, 24 Hours Into Test Pressure Remains At 6,700 PSI
Posted by Alexander Higgins - July 16, 2010 at 10:00 am

As I reported yesterday an insider in the BP control room leaked to the Washington Post that the pressure inside BP’s blowout preventer had only risen to about 6700 psi.

He said that indicated that the well casing could be blown down hole although yesterday he cautioned that we needed to wait for about 24 hours to make that determination.

Fast forward to now and we are almost 24 hours into the test.

Apparently Kent Wells from BP isn’t aware that the pressure reading was leaked to the Washington Post yesterday because he just tweeted that the pressure inside the well is around 6,700 and still rising.

(...)

Tweeted at 8:36 EST on July 16th during the BP technical briefing.


So no Kent the pressure is not still rising.

The pressure is the same as it was yesterday when the well was first closed.

As Washington’s Blog points out at close 24 hours into this operation the pressure should have rose to between 8,000 and 9,000 psi if there where no leaks in the wellbore down hole.

(...)

The first oil industry expert, to my knowledge, has stepped forward to confirm my analysis.

Bob Cavnar has posted the following update saying the failure for the pressure to increase indicates a leak in the well bore on the Daily Hurricane.


Kent Wells just completed his morning McBriefing, lasting a whopping 8 minutes, including questions (limit one per customer, follow ups not allowed, no coupons accepted). He said that the test is continuing, and that pressure continues to build, currently at 6,700 psi. Even though Wells said that pressure is continuing to rise, the 6,700 happens to be the same pressure reported by the Washington Post last night, a few hours after the well was shut in. Tom Hunter, a retired Sandia Laboratories director and member of the government scientific team, said the pressure rose to 6,700, and appeared likely to level out “closer to 7,000.” Since the pressure is still at 6,700 psi, it looks like it’s been level for about 12 hours. In my experience, it would be unusual with a well of this pressure and permeability to rise much more after that number of hours. We could more tell if BP would disclose the actual feed rather than one data point that is completely uninformative.

The reported pressure is at the lower end of the ambiguity range that Adm Allen talked about a couple of days ago. Recall that he said that 8,000 to 9,000 would show strong integrity, 6,000 to 8,000 would be ambiguous, and below 6,000 would indicate a leak. With the pressure now virtually level at 6,700, it’s at the lower end of the ambiguity range, so it seems there is a good chance there is leak-off. That makes a lot of sense to me since there is 1,200 feet of open hole from the bottom of the 9 /7/8″ liner to TD at about 18,300 feet. That’s not to mention possible casing damage up hole.

Cavnar went on to explain that BP will be going on to rerun the siesmic survey and compare it to the original survey performed before the well as capped.

But Cavnar warns that the survey isn’t as sure of a thing as BP and the Government has made it sound to be and his analogy seems to indicate that the survey is highly likely not to pick up any leaks down hole.


Wells did say they were going to run seismic again to see if they can see fluid movement below the surface.

…

They ran a baseline survey a couple of days ago, and will compare that data to the data that they’ll get today to see if anything has changed around the well to indicate fluid movement. But, as one of my geologist friends of mine likes to say, reading seismic for precise conclusions is often like trying to observe airplanes flying overhead while lying on the bottom of a swimming pool. It’s difficult to draw definite conclusions, even using high frequency seismic, but it will be another data point.BP Gulf Oil Spill Well Integrity Test Failing, 24 Hours Into Test Pressure Remains At 6,700 PSI
Posted by Alexander Higgins - July 16, 2010 at 10:00 am

As I reported yesterday an insider in the BP control room leaked to the Washington Post that the pressure inside BP’s blowout preventer had only risen to about 6700 psi.

He said that indicated that the well casing could be blown down hole although yesterday he cautioned that we needed to wait for about 24 hours to make that determination.

Fast forward to now and we are almost 24 hours into the test.

Apparently Kent Wells from BP isn’t aware that the pressure reading was leaked to the Washington Post yesterday because he just tweeted that the pressure inside the well is around 6,700 and still rising.

(...)

Tweeted at 8:36 EST on July 16th during the BP technical briefing.


So no Kent the pressure is not still rising.

The pressure is the same as it was yesterday when the well was first closed.

As Washington’s Blog points out at close 24 hours into this operation the pressure should have rose to between 8,000 and 9,000 psi if there where no leaks in the wellbore down hole.

(...)

The first oil industry expert, to my knowledge, has stepped forward to confirm my analysis.

Bob Cavnar has posted the following update saying the failure for the pressure to increase indicates a leak in the well bore on the Daily Hurricane.

Kent Wells just completed his morning McBriefing, lasting a whopping 8 minutes, including questions (limit one per customer, follow ups not allowed, no coupons accepted). He said that the test is continuing, and that pressure continues to build, currently at 6,700 psi. Even though Wells said that pressure is continuing to rise, the 6,700 happens to be the same pressure reported by the Washington Post last night, a few hours after the well was shut in. Tom Hunter, a retired Sandia Laboratories director and member of the government scientific team, said the pressure rose to 6,700, and appeared likely to level out “closer to 7,000.” Since the pressure is still at 6,700 psi, it looks like it’s been level for about 12 hours. In my experience, it would be unusual with a well of this pressure and permeability to rise much more after that number of hours. We could more tell if BP would disclose the actual feed rather than one data point that is completely uninformative.

The reported pressure is at the lower end of the ambiguity range that Adm Allen talked about a couple of days ago. Recall that he said that 8,000 to 9,000 would show strong integrity, 6,000 to 8,000 would be ambiguous, and below 6,000 would indicate a leak. With the pressure now virtually level at 6,700, it’s at the lower end of the ambiguity range, so it seems there is a good chance there is leak-off. That makes a lot of sense to me since there is 1,200 feet of open hole from the bottom of the 9 /7/8″ liner to TD at about 18,300 feet. That’s not to mention possible casing damage up hole.

Cavnar went on to explain that BP will be going on to rerun the siesmic survey and compare it to the original survey performed before the well as capped.

But Cavnar warns that the survey isn’t as sure of a thing as BP and the Government has made it sound to be and his analogy seems to indicate that the survey is highly likely not to pick up any leaks down hole.

Wells did say they were going to run seismic again to see if they can see fluid movement below the surface.

…

They ran a baseline survey a couple of days ago, and will compare that data to the data that they’ll get today to see if anything has changed around the well to indicate fluid movement. But, as one of my geologist friends of mine likes to say, reading seismic for precise conclusions is often like trying to observe airplanes flying overhead while lying on the bottom of a swimming pool. It’s difficult to draw definite conclusions, even using high frequency seismic, but it will be another data point.

Thank you Ninakat. This makes way more sense than the official PR releases...

[No_Baseline]

Ninakat:
Re: 'Not for public': the oil spill may be getting much worse
BP Gulf Oil Spill Well Integrity Test Failing, 24 Hours Into Test Pressure Remains At 6,700 PSI
Posted by Alexander Higgins - July 16, 2010 at 10:00 am

As I reported yesterday an insider in the BP control room leaked to the Washington Post that the pressure inside BP’s blowout preventer had only risen to about 6700 psi.

He said that indicated that the well casing could be blown down hole although yesterday he cautioned that we needed to wait for about 24 hours to make that determination.

Fast forward to now and we are almost 24 hours into the test.

Apparently Kent Wells from BP isn’t aware that the pressure reading was leaked to the Washington Post yesterday because he just tweeted that the pressure inside the well is around 6,700 and still rising.

(...)

Tweeted at 8:36 EST on July 16th during the BP technical briefing.


So no Kent the pressure is not still rising.

The pressure is the same as it was yesterday when the well was first closed.

As Washington’s Blog points out at close 24 hours into this operation the pressure should have rose to between 8,000 and 9,000 psi if there where no leaks in the wellbore down hole.

(...)

The first oil industry expert, to my knowledge, has stepped forward to confirm my analysis.

Bob Cavnar has posted the following update saying the failure for the pressure to increase indicates a leak in the well bore on the Daily Hurricane.


Kent Wells just completed his morning McBriefing, lasting a whopping 8 minutes, including questions (limit one per customer, follow ups not allowed, no coupons accepted). He said that the test is continuing, and that pressure continues to build, currently at 6,700 psi. Even though Wells said that pressure is continuing to rise, the 6,700 happens to be the same pressure reported by the Washington Post last night, a few hours after the well was shut in. Tom Hunter, a retired Sandia Laboratories director and member of the government scientific team, said the pressure rose to 6,700, and appeared likely to level out “closer to 7,000.” Since the pressure is still at 6,700 psi, it looks like it’s been level for about 12 hours. In my experience, it would be unusual with a well of this pressure and permeability to rise much more after that number of hours. We could more tell if BP would disclose the actual feed rather than one data point that is completely uninformative.

The reported pressure is at the lower end of the ambiguity range that Adm Allen talked about a couple of days ago. Recall that he said that 8,000 to 9,000 would show strong integrity, 6,000 to 8,000 would be ambiguous, and below 6,000 would indicate a leak. With the pressure now virtually level at 6,700, it’s at the lower end of the ambiguity range, so it seems there is a good chance there is leak-off. That makes a lot of sense to me since there is 1,200 feet of open hole from the bottom of the 9 /7/8″ liner to TD at about 18,300 feet. That’s not to mention possible casing damage up hole.

Cavnar went on to explain that BP will be going on to rerun the siesmic survey and compare it to the original survey performed before the well as capped.

But Cavnar warns that the survey isn’t as sure of a thing as BP and the Government has made it sound to be and his analogy seems to indicate that the survey is highly likely not to pick up any leaks down hole.


Wells did say they were going to run seismic again to see if they can see fluid movement below the surface.

…

They ran a baseline survey a couple of days ago, and will compare that data to the data that they’ll get today to see if anything has changed around the well to indicate fluid movement. But, as one of my geologist friends of mine likes to say, reading seismic for precise conclusions is often like trying to observe airplanes flying overhead while lying on the bottom of a swimming pool. It’s difficult to draw definite conclusions, even using high frequency seismic, but it will be another data point.BP Gulf Oil Spill Well Integrity Test Failing, 24 Hours Into Test Pressure Remains At 6,700 PSI
Posted by Alexander Higgins - July 16, 2010 at 10:00 am

As I reported yesterday an insider in the BP control room leaked to the Washington Post that the pressure inside BP’s blowout preventer had only risen to about 6700 psi.

He said that indicated that the well casing could be blown down hole although yesterday he cautioned that we needed to wait for about 24 hours to make that determination.

Fast forward to now and we are almost 24 hours into the test.

Apparently Kent Wells from BP isn’t aware that the pressure reading was leaked to the Washington Post yesterday because he just tweeted that the pressure inside the well is around 6,700 and still rising.

(...)

Tweeted at 8:36 EST on July 16th during the BP technical briefing.


So no Kent the pressure is not still rising.

The pressure is the same as it was yesterday when the well was first closed.

As Washington’s Blog points out at close 24 hours into this operation the pressure should have rose to between 8,000 and 9,000 psi if there where no leaks in the wellbore down hole.

(...)

The first oil industry expert, to my knowledge, has stepped forward to confirm my analysis.

Bob Cavnar has posted the following update saying the failure for the pressure to increase indicates a leak in the well bore on the Daily Hurricane.

Kent Wells just completed his morning McBriefing, lasting a whopping 8 minutes, including questions (limit one per customer, follow ups not allowed, no coupons accepted). He said that the test is continuing, and that pressure continues to build, currently at 6,700 psi. Even though Wells said that pressure is continuing to rise, the 6,700 happens to be the same pressure reported by the Washington Post last night, a few hours after the well was shut in. Tom Hunter, a retired Sandia Laboratories director and member of the government scientific team, said the pressure rose to 6,700, and appeared likely to level out “closer to 7,000.” Since the pressure is still at 6,700 psi, it looks like it’s been level for about 12 hours. In my experience, it would be unusual with a well of this pressure and permeability to rise much more after that number of hours. We could more tell if BP would disclose the actual feed rather than one data point that is completely uninformative.

The reported pressure is at the lower end of the ambiguity range that Adm Allen talked about a couple of days ago. Recall that he said that 8,000 to 9,000 would show strong integrity, 6,000 to 8,000 would be ambiguous, and below 6,000 would indicate a leak. With the pressure now virtually level at 6,700, it’s at the lower end of the ambiguity range, so it seems there is a good chance there is leak-off. That makes a lot of sense to me since there is 1,200 feet of open hole from the bottom of the 9 /7/8″ liner to TD at about 18,300 feet. That’s not to mention possible casing damage up hole.

Cavnar went on to explain that BP will be going on to rerun the siesmic survey and compare it to the original survey performed before the well as capped.

But Cavnar warns that the survey isn’t as sure of a thing as BP and the Government has made it sound to be and his analogy seems to indicate that the survey is highly likely not to pick up any leaks down hole.

Wells did say they were going to run seismic again to see if they can see fluid movement below the surface.

…

They ran a baseline survey a couple of days ago, and will compare that data to the data that they’ll get today to see if anything has changed around the well to indicate fluid movement. But, as one of my geologist friends of mine likes to say, reading seismic for precise conclusions is often like trying to observe airplanes flying overhead while lying on the bottom of a swimming pool. It’s difficult to draw definite conclusions, even using high frequency seismic, but it will be another data point.

Thank you Ninakat. This makes way more sense than the official PR releases...

[Iamwhomiam]

Hugo wrote:

Most engineers I spoke with thought the top kill was a ridiculous PR stunt. It merely proved that you can't fill a bathtub with a hole in its bottom.

While I agree with the pr stunt aspect of the Top Kill, I would disagree with the hole in the bottom of the bathtub analogy, unless the hole you're referring to was that deep underground, the failed casing and not that which penetrated the reservoir some 18k feet below the seabed.

But let's remember, the top kill mud was only pressurized to approximately 6.5k ppi. So with the escaping oil, which was estimated to be being ejected at at least 9k ppi, the top kill approach could never have been effective. To have been effective the mud would have had to be being injected at around 10k ppi.

I feel sure the casing failed and caused the 'crater' around the wellhead.

[DoYouEverWonder]

Never mind.

[82_28]

Giant oil skimmer won't work in Gulf spill cleanup

NEW ORLEANS – A giant oil skimmer brought in from Portugal is too big to be used in the Gulf cleanup effort.

The Taiwanese vessel "A Whale" was deployed last week along the oil-slicked Gulf Coast. But it's been determined the skimmer didn't collect enough oil.

The U.S. Coast Guard says it was too big to maneuver around the smaller patches and ribbons of oil on the water.

Smaller, more agile vessels have been more useful in getting at the oil.

Nearly 33 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100717/ap_ ... nt_skimmer

[Nordic]

Giant oil skimmer won't work in Gulf spill cleanup

NEW ORLEANS – A giant oil skimmer brought in from Portugal is too big to be used in the Gulf cleanup effort.

The Taiwanese vessel "A Whale" was deployed last week along the oil-slicked Gulf Coast. But it's been determined the skimmer didn't collect enough oil.

The U.S. Coast Guard says it was too big to maneuver around the smaller patches and ribbons of oil on the water.

Smaller, more agile vessels have been more useful in getting at the oil.

Nearly 33 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100717/ap_ ... nt_skimmer

Well if they hadn't used all that goddamn DISPERSANT the oil would be in one enormous blob on the surface and this damn thing COULD pick it up.

Idiots.