CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so fast

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CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so fast

Postby lupercal » Thu Feb 10, 2011 11:35 pm

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So let's see, Panetta climbs aboard the USS Ajax today to modestly take credit for a job well done, except it turns out it isn't, at least not yet, but Operation Lotus is 100%-not-fake, am I getting this right wikifans? :lol2:

CIA's Panetta says Mubarak to resign
Posted on Thursday, February 10, 2011
by Jonathan S. Landay | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak could resign Thursday, bowing to the chief demand of 17 days of massive anti-regime protests, CIA Director Leon Panetta said.

“I got the same information you did, that there is a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening, which would be significant in terms of where, where the hopefully orderly transition in Egypt takes place,” Panetta told the House Intelligence Committee.

(snip)

He was responding to a question about the crisis in Egypt during a hearing at which he, National Intelligence Director James R. Clapper and the heads of other U.S. intelligence agencies were presenting their annual assessment of threats to U.S. national security.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/10/1 ... esign.html

Hey it worked in 1952, just be patient Leon:

Egyptian Revolution of 1952

Both the United States of America and the Soviet Union promoted the view that the Egyptian monarchy was both corrupt and a pro-British colonial satrapy, its lavish lifestyle in sharp contrast to that of the Free Officers, who lived in poverty. The propaganda of the two Super-powers completed the image of the Egyptian government as a corrupt puppet of the British.

The Central Intelligence Agency and the KGB through their agents in Egypt promoted the feeling of corruption on the part of several Egyptian institutions such as the police, the palace and even the political parties, and in turn helped coordinate their anti-British and reformist sympathies with the Free Officers Movement.

(snip)

Subsequently, Free Officer Movement cells initiated riots in Cairo which led to arsons. Without suppression from local fire brigades, these arson attacks further inflamed more rioting. American and Soviet newspapers promoted the incident on global wire outlets as the "Cairo Fires" and suggested they were seen as further evidence of the beginning of the end of the monarchy.

The next day, January 26, 1952 ("Black Saturday"), what many Egyptians call "the second revolution" broke out (the first being the Egyptian Revolution of 1919).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_R ... on_of_1952
.................................

hmm.. for what it's worth my own view is that Panetta is probably speaking candidly and really doesn't have much more knowledge than any other schmo with a browser, because I think he's about as in the loop as slam-dunk Tenet was. Basically he's a front guy except in Panetta's case he's probably fully aware that his cluelessness is part of a calculated strategy of plausible deniability. I also think this thing is mainly a Brit job with yanks playing goon squad as usual.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby wolf ticket » Thu Feb 10, 2011 11:59 pm

talk about counting chickens before they hatch! let's hope those chickens don't come home to roost.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby lupercal » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:14 am

wolf ticket wrote:talk about counting chickens before they hatch! let's hope those chickens don't come home to roost.

That's what I'm hoping because if Mubarak goes it's going to be open season on Gaza and this time they'll have about as much hope of avoiding annihilation as North Korea did in 1950.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby wordspeak2 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:26 am

Yeah, I hate to say it to the hopeful-majority here, but this shit has CIA op *all over* it. Don't believe the storyline the capitalist press gives you. In fact, specifically *don't* believe it. "Grassroots revolution- the people have spoken!" Says Obama cheerfully.
It's too good to be true, folks. The only question is why. Something about a geo-political realignment, with the U.S. and its tightest allies looking at securing regimes completely on its side for a possible upcoming massive global conflict with Iran on the other side, and Russia, China.... We may be closer to a world war scenario than people have any idea about. At the very least, the West is preparing for the possibility. And Egypt's military is one that it needs total control of.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby compared2what? » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:37 pm

wordspeak2 wrote:Yeah, I hate to say it to the hopeful-majority here, but this shit has CIA op *all over* it. Don't believe the storyline the capitalist press gives you. In fact, specifically *don't* believe it. "Grassroots revolution- the people have spoken!" Says Obama cheerfully.
It's too good to be true, folks. The only question is why. Something about a geo-political realignment, with the U.S. and its tightest allies looking at securing regimes completely on its side for a possible upcoming massive global conflict with Iran on the other side, and Russia, China.... We may be closer to a world war scenario than people have any idea about. At the very least, the West is preparing for the possibility. And Egypt's military is one that it needs total control of.


Or, given that Egypt already is one of America's tightest allies -- just as it has been since at least 1989, when it became one of the five original Major non-NATO Allies, along with Japan, Australia, Israel and South Korea -- I guess that another way of putting that would have been:

    "The U.S. and its tightest allies are looking to secure their own regimes for a possible upcoming massive conflict with Iran on the other side, and Russia, China...."

Because it doesn't actually make any less sense that way. Egypt regularly participates in massive joint military training exercises with the United States. Under a formal cooperative military arrangement with the United States. It was part of the coalition with which we fought the first Gulf War.

And I'm afraid that you can't really read too much into its official absence from the coalition with which we invaded Iraq. Because not only didn't we have one -- except for nominally, and the UK excepted -- we didn't even want to have one, as far as I could then or can now tell.

Besides which, unofficially, Mubarak has been one of our...well, tightest allies in the GWOT generally. Both in Iraq and elsewhere. He's made his torture facilities and torturers available to us, for example. And he's a long-time on-the-record supporter of the occupation, for another. He just didn't think the invasion was a good idea. Which nobody did. Because it wasn't.

Also, we are not going to war with China and neither is anybody else. I mean, I very seriously doubt that we're going to war with Russia, either, of course. But at least that's a totally insane idea that might still have a little bit of currency in a few discrete pockets of the precincts of power. As they actually exist. In reality. Whereas even the PTB aren't crazy enough to be contemplating going to war with the country that owns its debt. You know. Due to the insurmountable practical obstacles.

Iran's a possibility, I do admit. But if it were an imminent one, the last fucking thing on earth we'd want would be regime change in Egypt, FFS.

Can't say that I really follow your reasoning, in short.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby JackRiddler » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:54 pm

.

c2w?, thrilled to see you! If you're going to grace us however briefly with your always missed and desired presence, I urge you not to use it feeding the trollthink. I mean, do you think you're going to get considered responses here?

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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:57 pm

Democracy and the Military

Huntington (1957), in a study based primarily on the history of the military in Western societies), elaborated what was widely accepted as the liberal democratic model of civil-military interaction. ‘[T]he principal responsibility of the military officer’, Huntington said, ‘is to the state’:[10]

Politics is beyond the scope of military competence, and the participation of military officers in politics undermines their professionalism … The military officer must remain neutral politically … The area of military science is subordinate to, and yet independent of, the area of politics … The military profession exists to serve the state … The superior political wisdom of the statesman must be accepted as a fact (Huntington 1957:16, 71, 73, 76).

The idea of the subservience of the military to civilian authority, as Grundy (1968) has pointed out, follows a tradition going back to Plato.[11] Huntington, however, challenged the simple identification of civilian control with democratic government, and military control with absolute or totalitarian government: the military may undermine civilian control in a democracy, he argued, acquiring power by legitimate processes,[12] and within a totalitarian system the power of the military may be reduced by such means as creating competing military or paramilitary units or by infiltrating it with ‘political commissars’. ‘Subjective civilian control’, he concluded, ‘thus is not the monopoly of any particular constitutional system’ (ibid.:82). Huntington went on to distinguish five patterns of civil-military relations, based on differing relative degrees of military/anti-military ideology, military power, and military professionalism (see ibid.: chapter 4), but as evidenced in his later study (Huntington 1968), for Huntington military ‘intervention’ represented an essential breakdown of the liberal democratic political order.

While Huntington’s concept of military professionalism has remained influential, the spate of post-independence military coups in the new states of Africa and Asia from the late 1950s prompted a more critical examination of the relation between civilian government and the military. Some commentators, indeed, suggested that the presumed neutrality and separation of the military from politics was at best a Western concept, if not a complete fiction (see, for example Perlmutter 1980:119; Valenzuela 1985:142; Ashkenazy 1994:178). Not only did military intervention sometimes occur in response to the effective breakdown of democratic civil regimes – with the ostensible aim of restoring democracy, and often with substantial popular support – but in some new states, notably the communist ‘people’s republics’ and the ‘guided democracy’ of Indonesia’s President Soekarno, an alternative model of ‘democracy’ was espoused, in which the military was seen as an integral part of the political system rather than, as in Huntington’s formulation, an agency outside the political realm.[13]

That a variety of political regimes, in which the pattern of relations between civilian politicians and the military covers a broad spectrum, should claim to be ‘democratic’ is testimony to the popularity of the term in international political discourse. Such popularity reflects the extent to which the term acts as an agent of political legitimation in a world where democracy is accepted, at least rhetorically, as a universal ‘good’. But can military regimes ever be described as democratic? Or, indeed, are they necessarily anti-democratic? Gallie’s (1956) formulation of democracy as an ‘essentially contested concept’ lends support to a relativist position, the extension of which is that democracy can mean all things to all people. As Hewison, Robison and Rodan (1993:5) point out, this effectively denies the possibility that any universal understandings can be reached and serves to ‘indemnify the most scurrilous of dictatorships and to undermine the legitimacy of democratic and reformist oppositions’. On the other hand, too narrow a definition, especially with respect to institutional forms, is unrealistic.

One way of dealing with this definitional problem is to acknowledge that regimes measure up differently against various criteria of democracy, and that the idea of a continuum from more democratic to less democratic is the most useful and meaningful approach to the problem of analysing and comparing regimes. Diamond, Linz and Lipset (1990:6-7), for example, define democracy in terms of three essential and generally accepted conditions: meaningful competition for government office; a high level of political participation; and a level of civil and political liberties sufficient to ensure competition and participation. They recognise, at the same time, that ‘countries that broadly satisfy these criteria, nevertheless do so to different degrees’ and that the ‘boundary between democratic and undemocratic is sometimes blurred and imperfect’ (ibid.:7; see also Dahl 1989:112; Hadenius 1992; Sørensen 1993; Lawson 1993).

For military rulers, however, the widespread association of democracy with civilian supremacy has created a particular crisis of legitimacy. A central pillar of modern democratic theory is the doctrine of constitutionalism which, in its simplest form, refers to limited government, a system in which any body of rulers is as much subject to the rule of law as the body of citizens. An important corollary to the democratic doctrine of constitutionalism is civilian supremacy (though this in itself is not a sufficient condition for democracy since, as Huntington pointed out, many non-democratic governments maintain civilian control over their military and police organisations). Democracy requires, therefore, not only that armed forces be subject to civilian control, but that ‘those civilians who control the military and police must themselves be subject to the democratic process’ (Dahl 1989:245). A fundamental principle of the democratic model of civilian supremacy in civil-military relations resides in the important distinction between the state and the legitimate government. It is to the latter that the military owes its primary allegiance, and any implicit distinction that the military might be tempted to draw between the goals of the government and those of the state must provoke a serious legitimacy problem (Harries-Jenkins and van Doorn 1976); this is so because the democracy model insists that the military’s power is legitimate only in so far as it has been endorsed by society as a whole and that its practical objectives are those set for it by the government of the day. Van Gils (1971:274) states this succinctly:

Under the conditions of pluralistic democracy, the relations between the armed forces and civilians are, at least theoretically, quite straightforward. Soldiers are public officials. They are not the embodiment of any particular set of values. They are not the chosen defenders of any specific social or political institution. They hold public office on the assumption that they will provide society with a specific set of services whenever society considers itself in the need of having such services performed.

This reflects the deeply embedded assumption of modern democratic theory, that it is the popularly elected government, and no other body or person, that is wholly responsible for deciding what policies are to be pursued in the name of the people. In so doing, the government is constrained by the limits to action set out under the law of the constitution, and is ultimately held accountable for its activities and decisions when it faces the judgement of the people at the polls.

But what if a constitutionally and popularly elected civilian government once in office abrogates the constitution and rejects the democratic values embodied in it (including genuinely competitive elections)? In such circumstances – which have been not uncommon in post-colonial states – the military may be the only entity within the country capable of reversing such a development and reinstating democratic government.

While contemporary democratic theory appears to be entirely at odds with the notion that the military has any role in unilaterally acting to ‘safeguard the national interest’, the most common justification for military intervention is just this. Such appeals to the national interest have frequently been coupled with references to some perceived crisis or threat involving the security of the state or serious economic or social problems. As Goodman (1990:xiii) observes for Latin America:

The frequent military ascension to power has often been motivated by a perceived need to save their nations from weak, corrupt, and undisciplined civilian leadership.

Numerous commentators on the role of the military in politics have observed the tendency of armed forces to justify their intervention in terms of the national interest, and thereby to identify themselves with the desiderata of nationhood. Most have been sceptical. Lissak (1976:20), for example, notes that the military can acquire a self image as guarantor of the fundamental and permanent interests of the nation, thereby arrogating to itself the requisite legitimacy to assume the right to rule. Similarly, Nordlinger (1970:1137-8) highlights the manner in which the military’s corporate interests can be defined, legitimised, and rationalised by a close identification with the interests of the nation, while at the same time portraying oppositional protests to their actions as ‘expressions of partial and selfish interests’.

Nevertheless, authoritarian rule is not exclusive to military regimes and, as the case studies in this volume illustrate, armed forces have played a role in pro-democracy regime transitions (see also Chazan et al. 1988; Goodman 1990; Rial 1990a). The critical factor for most commentators on civil-military relations concerns the intention of military rulers to return to the barracks.

To legitimise their intervention, military regimes commonly contend that their rule is only a preparatory or transitory (but entirely necessary) stage along the road to a fully democratic political system, and promise an early return to civilian rule, thereby recognising, Dahl (1989:2) argues, that ‘an indispensable ingredient for their legitimacy is a dash or two of the language of democracy’. In some cases, military rule has been justified ‘as necessary for the regeneration of the polity to allow for stable and effective rule’; military regimes have even portrayed their role as that of ‘democratic tutor’ (Huntington 1968; Nordlinger 1977:204-5). Yet once out of the barracks military rulers have seldom been anxious to relinquish power and even where there have been transitions back to civilian rule the armed forces have typically retained an involvement in politics and have been more likely to intervene again if dissatisfied with the performance of civilian governments.

Observing processes of transition from authoritarian military rule to democracy in Latin America, Goodman (1990:xiv) comments that, ‘successful transitions have utilised a process of incremental rather than immediate civilian control’; he goes on to suggest:

For democracy to take root in Latin America, both military men and civilian leaders must take on new roles…. Recognition that the military is one of the strongest formal institutions in societies that are in dire need of political and social coherence poses challenges to Latin American civilian leaders that are very different from those confronted by their developed-nation counterparts (ibid.:xiv; see also Stepan 1988; Rial 1990a, b and Varas 1990).

Goodman, however, is not explicit on the nature of these ‘new roles’, and other contributors to the same volume suggest that recently democratised regimes in Latin America remain vulnerable to ‘the rapid rebirth of military authoritarianism’ (Rial 1990b:289).

In Asia and the Pacific armed forces have played a role in both democratising and anti-democratic transitions, and though, as elsewhere, their tendency as rulers has been towards authoritarianism, patterns of civil-military relations and degrees of authoritarianism/democracy in governance have varied widely. Any attempt at understanding this variety must begin with an appreciation of the particular historical and cultural circumstances under which military involvement in politics has developed in different countries.


http://epress.anu.edu.au/mdap/mobile_de ... 01s02.html
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:57 pm

I'm cautiously pessimistic...(was dupe).
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby wordspeak2 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 1:22 pm

Mubarak resigns.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/02/11/egypt.us.reaction/

"Egyptian President Mubarak's decision to step down from power is "obviously a welcome step," a U.S. official involved in the Egypt discussions said Friday."

So now what?
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby lupercal » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:24 pm

wordspeak2 wrote:Mubarak resigns.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/02/11/egypt.us.reaction/

"Egyptian President Mubarak's decision to step down from power is "obviously a welcome step," a U.S. official involved in the Egypt discussions said Friday."

So now what?

Standard issue CIA-backed military coup with a microthin layer of Mad Ave hype but boy do the suckers eat it up. :tongout

Now we get to watch Egypt take the predictable low road to chaos and "sectarian strife" while BP and the banksters move in and our friends-in-the-region bomb Gaza into oblivion. Yay, freedumb is on the march! :yay

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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby 23 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:48 pm

wordspeak2 wrote:Mubarak resigns.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/02/11/egypt.us.reaction/

"Egyptian President Mubarak's decision to step down from power is "obviously a welcome step," a U.S. official involved in the Egypt discussions said Friday."

So now what?


I'd suggest that the Egyptians solicit the assistance of the Swiss in adding certain aspects of direct democracy to their future representational democracy system. I.e. initiative, referendum (plebiscite), and recall.

They have certainly demonstrated a willingness to directly participate in removing their government. They should have no problem at all in directly participating in their future self-governance.

They have a golden opportunity to show the rest of the world what direct democracy can look like.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland#cite_note-7
Swiss citizens are subject to three legal jurisdictions: the commune, canton and federal levels. The 1848 federal constitution defines a system of direct democracy (sometimes called half-direct or representative direct democracy since it is aided by the more commonplace institutions of a parliamentary democracy). The instruments of Swiss direct democracy at the federal level, known as civic rights (Volksrechte, droits civiques), include the right to submit a constitutional initiative and a referendum, both of which may overturn parliamentary decisions.[48][52]

By calling a federal referendum a group of citizens may challenge a law that has been passed by Parliament, if they can gather 50,000 signatures against the law within 100 days. If so, a national vote is scheduled where voters decide by a simple majority whether to accept or reject the law. Eight cantons together can also call a referendum on a federal law.[48]

Similarly, the federal constitutional initiative allows citizens to put a constitutional amendment to a national vote, if they can get 100,000 voters to sign the proposed amendment within 18 months.[note 7] Parliament can supplement the proposed amendment with a counter-proposal, with voters having to indicate a preference on the ballot in case both proposals are accepted. Constitutional amendments, whether introduced by initiative or in Parliament, must be accepted by a double majority of both the national popular vote and a majority of the cantonal popular votes.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby lupercal » Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:46 pm

23 wrote:I'd suggest that the Egyptians solicit the assistance of the Swiss. . . .

What do Egyptians have to do with it? The show's over and the military is running things now, just like "protest" leaders said they should, and the military answers to Uncle Sam, period. ElBaradei last night:
Leading opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the United Nations atomic watchdog, tweeted: "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12424587

As to the rosy future ahead, Egyptians can expect a lot more of this:

Egypt growth may halve, budget gap, inflation to rise
Source: Reuters - 09 Feb 2011 13:47

* Growth may fall to as low as 1-2 percent - analysts

* Loose fiscal policy, weak currency to fuel inflation

* Central bank to intervene, aggressive rate hike an option

* Investment outflows of up to $1 bln a day

* Key tourism revenues take "big hit"

DUBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Political turmoil in Egypt may more than halve the Arab country's economic growth this year, push its budget deficit into double digits and weaken its currency, boosting already high inflation.

A month before massive anti-Hosni Mubarak protests erupted on Jan. 25, analysts polled by Reuters had expected Egypt's economy to grow 5.4 percent in the fiscal year ending in June, second only to Qatar. The government had forecast 6 percent expansion.

Banks are reopening but with shops still closed and tourists shunning the popular holiday hub, those growth predictions now look optimistic.

Some analysts have already trimmed their growth projections as the disruption strips at least $310 million per day from the crude-importing economy, said Banque Saudi Fransi.

"Tourist arrivals were 20 to 30 percent lower year-on-year after the (1997) Luxor attacks or when the global economy fell into recession," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said.

(snip)

Lower private consumption, which accounts for around 70 percent of GDP, a drop in foreign investments and higher unemployment are also expected to hurt economic performance.

Egypt's economy was worth an estimated $217 billion last year, half of oil giant Saudi Arabia, and relies on foreign investments, tourism and Suez Canal fees, but faces challenges such as poverty, high unemployment of at least 10 percent -- but many suggest the real figure is much higher -- and stubborn inflation.

Some analysts warn that the central bank could raise borrowing costs, with the overnight lending rate now at 9.75 percent, to stem capital outflows. Citi estimates outflows of $500 million to $1 billion per day.

"Tourism revenues are taking a big hit and are unlikely to recover quickly," Reinhard Cluse, economist at UBS in London, said. "Retail and foreign trade seem to be disrupted and cash reserves might still be running low."

Income from tourism -- estimated at 5 to 11 percent of economic output -- is an important lifeline for the Arab world's most populous country, where about 40 percent of people live on less than $2 per day.

As protests intensified in the past two weeks, ratings agencies downgraded Egypt's sovereign ratings by one notch citing possible damage to already weak state finances.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/anal ... n-to-rise/

:yay
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby slimmouse » Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:53 pm

lupercal wrote:As protests intensified in the past two weeks, ratings agencies downgraded Egypt's sovereign ratings by one notch citing possible damage to already weak state finances.


A vital point Lupercal to people who live on $2 a day. Im sure the ratings agencies are always a vital consideration for your everyday surf on 2 bucks a day....I mean lets face it....if their rating improved, then the average earnings might creep above 2.1 dollars a day

Those ratings agencies should be the next to go up in flames along with the rest of the system.

I guess thats where we come in.

In getting rid of Mubarak, it seems to me that Egypt at least has made a start. You can go on until your blue in the face about how this is all staged and all the rest of it, but I cannot accept that you seriously believe that the Western world, are even remotely happy about any of this.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby lupercal » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:07 pm

slimmouse wrote: A vital point Lupercal to people who live on $2 a day.

It's a vital point. When $2 buys half of what it does today three months from now, and half of that next year, you'll see why.
In getting rid of Mubarak, it seems to me that Egypt at least has made a start.

A start at what, exactly? Please explain how ditching a civilian government for military dictatorship advances "democracy" or any other benefit to Egyptians. How it benefits BP, Boeing, Wall Street, and the IDF is manifestly clear.
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Re: CIA declares Mission Accomplished, Mubarak says not so f

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:11 pm

lupercal wrote:Please explain how ditching a civilian government for military dictatorship advances "democracy" or any other benefit to Egyptians. How it benefits BP, Boeing, Wall Street, and the IDF is manifestly clear.


Civilian govt?

Man I thought I was smoking the best gear on the planet, but obviously not.
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