If anybody needs me before next Tuesday, tell them they can find me in this thread.
Every time I think the ceiling's been reached, or it's all just going to fade away:
PARLIAMENT HILL—Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes dramatically in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning before the election on Monday, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times.
The survey conducted Tuesday night puts the NDP firmly in second place, barely behind the Conservative Party, as its support has continued to climb in regions across Canada following the stunning wave the party and its leader, Jack Layton, have generated in Quebec.
The poll of voting intentions of 3,150 Canadians gave the NDP 31 per cent support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, who dropped by two percentage polls from the last Forum Research poll on April 21. Support for the Liberal Party, which may have hit rock bottom in the upheaval of the past two weeks, remained relatively unchanged, down to 22 per cent from 23 per cent on April 21.
With so little time left, and voter intentions firming up, it appears Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has urged voters to give him a stable majority government from the outset on March 26, will in the end have his minority government reduced by as many as 10 seats, to a possible 137, Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told The Hill Times.
Despite musing about the possibility of an NDP government, notably on the new Sun News Network, Mr. Bozinoff said though Mr. Layton and his NDP appear most likely to form the official opposition, they would need to convert seats in unlikely areas of the country to displace the governing party.
Mr. Bozinoff’s poll and analysis based on past results in key ridings would give the Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only three seats for the Bloc Québécois. If these results hold, the seat projections would have a range of plus or minus 10 seats for each party, Mr. Bozinoff emphasized.
“Right now there’s a 30-seat difference, so the NDP would need 15 more seats to switch [with the Conservatives], and those seats are not going to be in Quebec, Quebec is done, I think pretty much,” he said. “So it’s 15 seats the NDP are going to be looking for in the rest of the country outside Quebec, I think that’s going to be tough for them to find those seats, because we’re really down to the hard core seats now.”
http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/vi ... 04-27-2011What's more, NDP lead by sizable numbers in age categories 18-34. (Conservative support peaks 65+.) And for the first time more Canadians say Layton would make a better PM than Harper.
Top civil servants told to focus on NDP position on constitutional reform: CP sources
By: Heather Scoffield, The Canadian Press
Posted: 04/27/2011 3:42 PM
OTTAWA - Political parties aren't the only ones combing through the NDP election platform to see what the promises would look like in reality.
The Canadian Press has learned that the highest ranks of the federal civil service have also been told to take their sharp pencils to the New Democrat policies as they prepare for the next government to take over — especially when it comes to the Constitution.
The civil service always keeps a very close eye on the ups and downs of election campaigns so that it can be prepared for any electoral outcome and help the new government transition smoothly to power.
This time, however, the constitutional issue was not even on the back burner until the middle of the campaign, when NDP Leader Jack Layton brought it up during the French debate.
Turning separatist semantics on their head, Layton declared that he wanted to create the "winning conditions" to have Quebec included in the Constitution.
Under some clerks of the Privy Council, the civil service is told to prepare several different versions of briefing books so that they will be ready for any electoral outcome.
But public service mandarins haven't really taken the NDP seriously in the past.
In 2004, for example, the party actually approached senior government officials with a request for meetings so that the party could present and explain its policies.
Their request was rebuffed, and the New Democrats were made to understand it was because they were not serious contenders for power.
This time, NDP officials aren't asking for the extra attention and polls suggesting a spike in New Democrats' support means they don't need to.
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http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/specia ... 09159.html
