Coming Soon - War with Iran?

[NeonLX]

Drones...groans...

Nothing more than a bump.

[AlicetheKurious]

This high-fiving piece was published in Israel's biggest right-wing media source a couple of months ago, but I just saw it now. I'm posting it because it confirms what I've been saying all along about the supposedly "imminent" Israeli attack against Iran: there will be none, as long as Iran is capable of defending itself. And I think (I hope) that the author's maliciously gleeful vision never comes true. If and when Iran does become "beaten, battered and suffocating, like a patient who lost yet another vital oxygen pipe," that's when yet another Israeli war of aggression will indeed be imminent.

Israel only attacks targets that it perceives as crippled and weak.

Israeli campaign worked

Op-ed: Western oil embargo imposed on Iran can be credited to Israel’s strike threats

Published: 01.24.12, 18:46 / Israel Opinion

It certainly looks as though the Israeli campaign launched during the previous fall, where rumors of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran were disseminated, secured its objectives. Western statesmen clung to this campaign and utilized it in order to impose on Iran the devastating sanctions that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded two years ago already.

On July 1st, European Union states intend to shut their doors to Iranian oil. The Islamic Republic will then have to contend with a decline of at least $20 billion in its annual income. Iran will survive – beaten, battered and suffocating, like a patient who lost yet another vital oxygen pipe. With emphasis on “another.”

The sanctions imposed by the EU on Iran Monday are not there in and of themselves: They are the continuation and highlight of a long and increasingly intensifying path of sanctions. The economic sanction regime – first American and later international in nature – has been imposed on Iran since 1979 and in its current format since May of 1995.

Until 2008, the sanctions achieved little; they were no more than a nuisance. However, since then, and especially ever since Security Council Resolution 1929 from June of 2010, the picture has been changing rapidly. The sanctions are biting into the flesh of Iran’s economy and weakening it every day; their cumulative effect is crushing.

Another aspect is the boycott on Iran’s central bank. Although it has not yet been expelled from the joint nerve center of all central banks, The Bank for International Settlements in Basel (Nazi Germany’s central bank was also not expelled during World War II,) the Iranian bank has in fact become a pariah.

Russian reactor a failure

The strict sanction regime makes it much harder to undertaken further investments in the nuclear program, both because of a foreign currency shortage and a shortage in means and technologies. Everything costs 100-fold of its price in the official market and the origin of the goods is always dubious.

Meanwhile, the Russian nuclear reactor has already been proven as a failure: It produces energy at crazy costs and its safety is doubtful.

Hence, will the sanction chokehold being tightened around the neck of Iran’s economy prompt its leaders to renounce the military nuclear project? The likely answer is “not yet.”

An insane government like the one in Iran often conducts itself like a gambler near the roulette table: The more it loses, the more risks it assumes. Yet the moment arrives where even the most serious gambler loses his pants and is thrown out of the casino. Iran is closer to this point than assumed. It is possible that the Iranian people’s patience will wear thin even before that, and they will rebel in the face of the vision of turning their country into North Korea. Link

[seemslikeadream]

Report: Israeli Could Attack Iran Just Before US Elections
Report says Netanyahu has promised not to carry out an attack on Iran before the fall
- Common Dreams staff
An Israeli attack on Iran could occur in the crucial weeks leading up to the US presidential election this fall, according to a report from an Israeli newspaper.


The paper, Maariv, a daily Hebrew language newspaper based in Tel Aviv, quotes anonymous officials who said that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has assured the United States that it would hold off on an attack on Iran until at least the fall. Netanyahu, however, would not promise US officials he would hold off on a strike until after the November elections, the article reports. Due to weather that would complicate air strikes in Iran, this gives Israel a small window of time to make an attack, and could result in such a bombing campaign occuring right before the elections. This scenario could complicate President Obama's re-election campaign and give Israel leverage in negotiations with the US.

"Since most military analysts believe that Israel would almost certainly prefer to carry out a complex and difficult long-range attack on Iran in a period when the skies above the target are cloudless, that either means Israel has agreed to postpone the potential strike for at least another eleven months or that the window of opportunity is open now for September or October," reports Haaretz, an English language daily newspaper in Israel. "In other words, during the crucial final stages of the American presidential elections campaign.

* * *

Haaretz: Small window of opportunity for a strike on Iran

The headline of today's Maariv is extremely important, if true. It quotes American officials who say that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised not to carry out an attack on Iran before the fall.

Since most military analysts believe that Israel would almost certainly prefer to carry out a complex and difficult long-range attack on Iran in a period when the skies above the target are cloudless, that either means Israel has agreed to postpone the potential strike for at least another eleven months or that the window of opportunity is open now for September or October. In other words, during the crucial final stages of the American presidential elections campaign.

This seems to be the fear of Maariv's un-named administration sources, complaining that "Netanyahu refused to commit that Israel would not attack Iran before the elections in November 2012 and agreed to wait with a military operation only until the fall."

According to the paper, Netanyahu's reasoning is that "after fall, the Iranian nuclear installations will be in 'the immunity zone' from an Israeli strike and Israel will lose its independence to decide on military action."

We have no way of verifying this report but it does tally with what Barack Obama said two months ago - "I don't think that Israel has made a decision on what they need to do." And of course, it fits in with Netanyahu's tendency to play the internal American political arena.

Announcing that Israel may decide to attack Iran at the worst possible political timing puts pressure on Obama, and could potentially lead to some valuable American concessions to Israel, in exchange for an eventual commitment not to strike.

[8bitagent]

Former CIA analyst says Israeli strike on Iran could happen this June or July
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/ju ... strike.htm

Oh whoops...

That's from 2006.

Hard to tell anymore

[Nordic]

Alice, I'm a bit confused by something. On the one hand you seem to categorically deny that Israel will ever attack Iran militarily. Yet in another thread you have expressed that Israel is murderously angry with Obama for not attacking Iran militarily. Since it seems to go without saying that Israel wouldn't attack Iran without US support, could you reconcile those two views for us?

[8bitagent]

Alice, I'm a bit confused by something. On the one hand you seem to categorically deny that Israel will ever attack Iran militarily. Yet in another thread you have expressed that Israel is murderously angry with Obama for not attacking Iran militarily. Since it seems to go without saying that Israel wouldn't attack Iran without US support, could you reconcile those two views for us?

Well to be fair, hasn't the story been that media outlets claim US military thinks Israel could act alone and end up dragging them into the fray? Even if that's the cover story I can see a rift between military in the whole thing. We've been hearing "any week now, Israel will attack Iran", almost as an abstract by now. Either way it's sad that both peoples are hijacked by idiot leaders.

[Nordic]

I'm really just concerned with Alice's take on this, in regards to my post above.

I adore Alice, and I'm sure she'll make sense of this.

[Ben D]

Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack

Business Insider F. Michael Maloof April 09, 2012

WASHINGTON – The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.

Russian Security Council head Viktor Ozerov said that Russian General Military Headquarters has prepared an action plan in the event of an attack on Iran.

Dmitry Rogozin, who recently was the Russian ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, warned against an attack on Iran."Iran is our neighbor," Rogozin said. "If Iran is involved in any military action, it's a direct threat to our security." Rogozin now is the deputy Russian prime minister and is regarded as anti-Western. He oversees Russia's defense sector.
Russian Defense Ministry sources say that the Russian military doesn't believe that Israel has sufficient military assets to defeat Iranian defenses and further believes that U.S. military action will be necessary.

The implication of preparing to move Russian troops not only is to protect its own vital regional interests but possibly to assist Iran in the event of such an attack. Sources add that a Russian military buildup in the region could result in the Russian military potentially engaging Israeli forces, U.S. forces, or both.

Informed sources say that the Russians have warned of "unpredictable consequences" in the event Iran is attacked, with some Russians saying that the Russian military will take part in the possible war because it would threaten its vital interests in the region.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted a Russian military source as saying that the situation forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."

This latest information comes from a series of reports and leaks from official Russian spokesmen and government news agencies who say that an Israeli attack is all but certain by the summer.

Because of the impact on Russian vital interests in the region, sources say that Russian preparations for such an attack began two years ago when Russian Military Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia, was modernized. It is said to occupy a major geopolitical position in the region.

Families of Russian servicemen from the Russian base at Gyumri in Armenia close to the borders of Georgia and Turkey already have been evacuated, Russian sources say.

Continues...

[AlicetheKurious]

Alice, I'm a bit confused by something. On the one hand you seem to categorically deny that Israel will ever attack Iran militarily. Yet in another thread you have expressed that Israel is murderously angry with Obama for not attacking Iran militarily. Since it seems to go without saying that Israel wouldn't attack Iran without US support, could you reconcile those two views for us?

Sorry, I didn't see your question before. I've been, uh, occupied elsewhere.

There's no contradiction: Israel would not attack Iran period. Israel only attacks the very softest targets, and has no capability to engage in any sustained war likely to last beyond a few days or maybe weeks, with no guarantee of overwhelming victory.

Israel desperately, frantically wants the US to bomb and preferably destroy Iran (like it did to Iraq) on its behalf. The US has been understandably unwilling to do so, because launching yet another war, especially at this time and against Iran, would probably finish the US off as a global power. Israel doesn't care about this: Iran's destruction would remove the final obstacle in its way to becoming a global power in its own right, and thus the US would have served its purpose and Israel's latest imperial sponsor can be discarded like a used kleenex.

But given the US' failure to do the job, Israel is reluctantly willing to settle for an economic, political and terrorist war of attrition against Iran that will do the job more slowly, but just as surely. The Israelis figure that this will result in one of three scenarios:

1) Increasing economic misery and political instability will create a favorable environment for a Mossad/CIA sponsored "color revolution" that will bring to power a puppet regime that they will control;

2) Iran will become too weak and isolated to have any regional role or influence;

3) After a few years of this "softening up", Iran will present a much more attractively helpless target and can then be easily finished off by either the US or Israel.

Win, win, win!

[DrVolin]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-deploys-f-2 ... 54971.html

Raptors to UAE.

[AlicetheKurious]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-deploys-f-22-fighter-jets-uae-officials-233154971.html

Raptors to UAE.

My favorite comment:

In other news, some very official ambiguous officials have anonymously stated that they can state things anonymously.

[Pele'sDaughter]

http://www.newser.com/story/145627/un-n ... crash.html

UN Nuke Inspector Dies in Iran Crash
Inspectors' car overturned near a heavy water reactor

(AP) – Cue the conspiracy theories: A UN nuclear inspector from South Korea was killed and a second inspector from Slovenia was injured in a car crash today, the nuclear watchdog agency said. Iran's official IRNA news agency said the inspectors' car overturned around a heavy water reactor being built in Khondab, about 150 miles southwest of Tehran. There were no immediate indications of foul play, but the crash is likely to undergo intense scrutiny.

The incident comes ahead of a new round of technical discussions between Tehran and the IAEA to be held in Vienna beginning Sunday. Higher-level negotiations also are planned later this month in Baghdad between envoys from Iran and six world powers including the United States. Inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog regularly visit Iran's nuclear facilities, though these stops often receive far less attention than the high-level IAEA teams sent to Iran to discuss access to other sites, such as the Parchin military base near Tehran where the UN suspects nuclear-related work has taken place.

[Ben D]

U.S. Concerned Netanyahu, Mofaz May Attack Iran

By Elad Benari
Arutz 7 First Publish: 5/11/2012, 1:16 AM

U.S. worried that Israel's new unity government could result in an attack on Iran at any given moment.
The United States is worried that Shaul Mofaz and his Kadima party’s joining a unity government with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu could result in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities at any given moment, according to a report on Channel 10 News on Thursday.

U.S. government officials told Channel 10 News that they believe a Likud-Kadima joing government could make a decision about an Israeli attack on Iran at any moment and perhaps even before the U.S. presidential elections in November.

The report said that when the Americans believed early elections would be held in Israel on September, they thought it meant the attack in Iran would be postponed at least until after the election. Now, with the stabilization of Israeli politics and the current government likely to end its term on schedule, the situation has changed and the Americans are concerned.

According to the Channel 10 report, in order to try and prevent or at least postpone the Israeli decision on the issue, the Americans recently held marathon talks with Israeli officials at all levels.

[seemslikeadream]

US Officials Worried Israel’s Unity Deal Raises Prospect of Iran Strike
The Likud-Kadima unity government might neutralize opposition to Israeli strike
by John Glaser, May 10, 2012

Top officials in the Obama administration are worried that Israel’s recent deal to form a national unity government between the Likud and Kadima parties raises the prospect of an Israeli strike on Iran prior to U.S. presidential elections in November.

According to some reports, anonymous U.S. officials have expressed concern that Kadima was offered a place in the coalition to shore up support for a preemptive attack on Iran and that Kadima head Shaul Mofaz would support such an attack.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had been pushing to hold elections a year early in order to possibly attack Iran at a point when Obama would be paralyzed in his own reelection campaign. Netanyahu dropped that effort and instead formed the unity government. Now, U.S. officials are concerned, he has got the political backing to do it instead.

The U.S. and Israel had for months been at loggerheads in a diplomatic dispute, with Israel threatening to attack Iran and vying for Washington’s support, and the U.S. pushing back, preferring instead to heap harsh sanctions on the Islamic Republic and restart negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.

The intelligence communities of both the U.S. and Israel are agreed in a consensus that Iran has no nuclear weapons program, and has not even made the decision to start one. But hawks in both countries hype untruths about Iran, along with an unprovoked war.

In the past, Mofaz has expressed opposition to such an attack. But in a joint press conference held Tuesday, Netanyahu and Mofaz said they saw eye-to eye on a host of issues, including Iran. Many in Israel are also suspicious that Mofaz will betray his earlier position.

New Israeli Deputy PM Mofaz May Betray Earlier Opposition to Iran Strike
Mofaz has a history of tip-flopping and of acquiescing to Netanyahu's hawkish foreign policy
by John Glaser, May 10, 2012

Senior Israeli ministers who oppose a strike on Iran said on Wednesday Kadima head Shaul Mofaz may betray his earlier opposition to war now that the hawkish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formed a unity government with Kadima.

Mofaz will join the forum of senior ministers, alongside Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Interior Minister Eli Yishai, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz and ministers Moshe Ya’alon, Dan Meridor and Benny Begin.

Steinitz, Lieberman, Netanyahu and Barak generally support a military strike on Iran, whereas Ya’alon, Meridor, Yishai and Begin are considered opponents of such a move. Mofaz may tip the balance in favor of war.

“How can one know for sure that he won’t be equally fickle on Iran?” one cabinet minister told Haaretz. Other observers have argued that Mofaz will be concerned primarily with furthering Kadima’s domestic issues, while acquiescing to Netanyahu and the hawks on a war on Iran.

One of the reasons the unity deal Likud reached with Kadima was so noteworthy is because, as Israeli political commentator Amit Segal says, national unity governments are typically formed in Israel in times of crisis – “mainly under conditions of war.” And Kadima seems to be warming to the idea of war.

Kadima Knesset member and former Army Spokesman Nachman Shai said on Thursday: “All kinds of unpredictable factors are unfolding in the region. Economically, we don’t know where we’re going. Regionally, we may find ourselves in a war in a few months. If that were the case, we would have joined the coalition immediately anyway, just as (the late prime minister Menachem) Begin did in 1967 (at the time of the Six-Day War). I’m not saying we’re going to have a war. It’s a possibility.”

[Ben D]

Iran attack decision nears, Israeli elite locks down

JERUSALEM |By Michael Stott Thu May 17, 2012 12:39pm EDT

(Reuters) - A private door opens from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office in central Jerusalem directly into a long, modestly furnished, half-paneled room decorated with modern paintings by Israeli artists and a copy of Israel's 1948 declaration of independence. It contains little more than a long wooden table, brown leather chairs and a single old-fashioned white projector screen.

This inner sanctum at the end of a corridor between Netanyahu's private room and the office of his top military adviser, is where one of the decade's most momentous military decisions could soon be taken: to launch an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program.

Time for that decision is fast running out and the mood in Jerusalem is hardening.

Iran continues to enrich uranium in defiance of international pressure, saying it needs the fuel for its civilian nuclear program. The West is convinced that Tehran's real objective is to build an atomic bomb - something which the Jewish state will never accept because its leaders consider a nuclear armed-Iran a threat to its very existence.

Adding to the international pressure, U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said this week American military plans to strike Iran were "ready" and the option was "fully available".

The central role Iran plays in Netanyahu's deliberations is reflected in the huge map of the Middle East hanging by the door of his office. Israel lies on one edge, with Iran taking pride of place in the centre.

Experts say that within a few months, much of Iran's nuclear program will have been moved deep underground beneath the Fordow mountain, making a successful military strike much more difficult.

LOCKDOWN

As the deadline for a decision draws nearer, the public pronouncements of Israel's top officials and military have changed. After hawkish warnings about a possible strike earlier this year, their language of late has been more guarded and clues to their intentions more difficult to discern.

"The top of the government has gone into lockdown," one official said. "Nobody is saying anything publicly. That in itself tells you a lot about where things stand."

Last week Netanyahu pulled off a spectacular political surprise, creating a coalition of national unity and delaying elections which everyone believed were inevitable. The maneuver also led to speculation that the Israeli leader wanted a broad, strong government to lead a military campaign.

The inclusion of the Iranian-born former Israeli chief of staff and veteran soldier, Gen. Shaul Mofaz, in the coalition, fuelled that speculation - even though both Mofaz and Netanyahu deny that Iran was mentioned in the coalition negotiations.

"I think they have made a decision to attack," said one senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership. "It is going to happen. The window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November. This way they will bounce the Americans into supporting them."

Those close to Netanyahu are more cautious, saying no assumptions should be made about an attack on Iran - an attack with such potentially devastating consequences across the volatile Middle East that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas even went so far as to predict in an interview with Reuters last week that it would be "the end of the world".

Russia says action on Syria, Iran may lead to nuke war

By REUTERSLAST UPDATED: 05/17/2012 22:34

MOSCOW - Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned on Thursday that military action against sovereign states could lead to a regional nuclear war, starkly voicing Moscow's opposition to Western intervention ahead of a G8 summit at which Syria and Iran will be discussed.

"Hasty military operations in foreign states usually bring radicals to power," Medvedev, president for four years until Vladimir Putin's inauguration on May 7, told a conference in St. Petersburg in remarks posted on the government's website.

"At some point such actions, which undermine state sovereignty, may lead to a full-scale regional war, even, although I do not want to frighten anyone, with the use of nuclear weapons," Medvedev said. "Everyone should bear this in mind."

Medvedev gave no further explanation. Nuclear-armed Russia has said publicly that it is under no obligation to protect Syria if it is attacked, and analysts and diplomats say Russia would not get involved in military action if Iran were attacked.