How Bad Is Global Warming?

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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby DrEvil » Fri Dec 27, 2013 6:09 pm

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/12/ ... te-change/

Solar variability has a small effect on climate change

For the last 1,200 years of the Northern Hemisphere, at least.

The Earth wouldn't have much of a climate if it weren't for the Sun. But it's a different thing entirely to conclude that because of its essential role the Sun contributes significantly to climate change. To alter the climate, the amount of energy sent our way by the Sun would have to vary significantly. And most studies have found that, while the Sun's output does vary, it hasn't seemed to have changed enough to have left a mark on the recent climate record.

But a few studies have suggested that the Sun's influence may be much larger. In fact, the range of estimates differ by an order of magnitude. One of the high-end estimates attempted to infer historic solar activity based on an examination of the details of the Sun that we can currently observe. And that, as its title suggests, "leads to large historical solar forcing."

A team from the University of Edinburgh decided to figure out if that actually made any sense. So, they compared a climate model's output with reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere's temperatures for the last 1,200 years (Northern Hemisphere data is much more complete than Southern). Within the climate model, they set both large and small values for the influence of solar activity on the climate.

And the large values simply don't work very well. With a high value for solar influence, nearly three hundred of the 1,000 years of the comparison failed to line up—the model output failed to match the historical record. In contrast, with a low value of solar influence, the number of mismatched years was cut by more than half. There was also an extended period at the start of the last millennium where the Northern Hemisphere's temperatures were high (commonly called the Medieval Warm Period), yet the solar activity was relatively low.

Doing a fingerprint analysis, which identifies the climate influences that produce the climate changes we actually measure, researchers showed that volcanoes and greenhouse gasses were the largest influences on the climate over the last 1,000 years, with greenhouse gasses playing a role even before their recent rise due to industrialization. In addition, they find that volcanic eruptions have both a short-term impact on climate (which was known) as well as a longer-term cooling impact.

Clearly, this study is limited by being focused on the Northern Hemisphere, when what we generally care about is the global effect. If solar activity did have a strong global influence, however, there should be periods where at least some of that effect was apparent in the Northern Hemisphere. It's also limited by being focused on a single climate model. The authors confirmed that a second model produced similar results, and they note that the fingerprint analysis depends only on the timing of changes, and not their magnitude. As a result, they "conclude that large solar forcing is inconsistent with reconstructions of climate of the past millennium."

That doesn't mean that the Sun couldn't force changes if its activity shifted more significantly than it has over the last thousand years or so. But that period includes both the Maunder and Dalton minimums, which are periods of exceptionally low activity in the historical record. It also doesn't rule out solar activity driving regional changes that are swamped when averaging across the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Nevertheless, the study is another point against the idea that the Sun's variability has had a significant influence on the historic climate. And, in that, it's consistent with the majority of other results.

Nature Geoscience, 2013. DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2040 (About DOIs).
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Ben D » Fri Dec 27, 2013 6:36 pm

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045032/article

Clouds blown by the solar wind

In this letter we investigate possible relationships between the cloud cover (CC) and the interplanetary electric field (IEF), which is modulated by the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field. We show that CC at mid–high latitudes systematically correlates with positive IEF, which has a clear energetic input into the atmosphere, but not with negative IEF, in general agreement with predictions of the global electric circuit (GEC)-related mechanism. Thus, our results suggest that mid–high latitude clouds might be affected by the solar wind via the GEC. Since IEF responds differently to solar activity than, for instance, cosmic ray flux or solar irradiance, we also show that such a study allows distinguishing one solar-driven mechanism of cloud evolution, via the GEC, from others.

Conclusion

Here we present a result of an empirical study showing that there is a weak but statistically significant relation between low cloud cover at middle–high latitudes in both Earth's hemispheres and the interplanetary electric field, that favors a particular mechanism of indirect solar activity influence on climate: global electric circuit affecting cloud formation.

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** or Nirvana, Allah, Brahman, Tao, etc...
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby coffin_dodger » Fri Dec 27, 2013 6:54 pm

Climate Change 2013: Where We Are Now - Not What You Think
Thurs 26 Dec 2103

We are in the midst of an era of frightening contradictions, when it comes to public understandings of climate change. While climate changes are occurring more quickly than scientists have ever predicted, most people’s knowledge of these realities remains hazy and clouded by political overtones. Because of both the counter-intuitive nature of climate change and the massive misinformation campaigns created by the fossil fuel industry, the general population is 20 years behind most climate scientists when it comes to the straightforward fact of "believing in" climate change. This is an ominous statistic: Now that scientists are predicting that even worse impacts than previously understood will happen significantly sooner, a rapid global response will be necessary for any attempt to stave them off. We are likely closer to irreversible dangerous climate change - if it has not begun already - and to take action, there must be a basic public consensus. There is, however, some hopeful news on the technological front if action is taken soon.


interesting read, continued here -
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/20751-climate-change-2013-where-we-are-now-not-what-you-think
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Lord Balto » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:43 pm

Meanwhile, the Chinese, the French, and the Australians are trying to reach a Russian research ship stuck in the Antarctic ice, but the ice is too thick. Maybe they should just wait for it to melt. ;-) And don't forget, it's summer down there.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/ ... ion-stalls
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby DrEvil » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:10 pm

Lord Balto » Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:43 pm wrote:Meanwhile, the Chinese, the French, and the Australians are trying to reach a Russian research ship stuck in the Antarctic ice, but the ice is too thick. Maybe they should just wait for it to melt. ;-) And don't forget, it's summer down there.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/ ... ion-stalls


Well, there you have it. Conclusive proof that global warming is a hoax.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Sounder » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:57 pm

Dr. Evil wrote...
Well, there you have it. Conclusive proof that global warming is a hoax.


It strikes me as being a bit disingenuous to demand that evidence rise to the level of proof before it deserves to be given any consideration.

It also seems like a bully boy tactic designed to inhibit the presentation of evidence and/or open discussion.

I notice that AD uses this 'trick' quite a lot, so at least it has a good pedigree.

But yes, Dr. Evil; evidence is not proof.

Anyway, global warming is not a hoax, the world has warmed about .8 degrees in the last 130 years.

The hoax is merely the thing that manipulators and well meaning stooges with an inordinate need for a rationale that feeds their sense of righteousness have turned Climate Change into.

But yeah sure, lets get all worked up over a bunch of computer modeling that predicts dire outcomes for our future, while at the same time we ignore empirically verified events that are happening RIGHT NOW, and is sickening ALL of us even as we speak.


Fantasy terror is so much more fun than is real terror. Perhaps that explains peoples choices for 'the most important issue of our times'TM
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Rory » Sat Dec 28, 2013 5:10 pm

Sounder » Sat Dec 28:57 pm wrote:Dr. Evil wrote...
Well, there you have it. Conclusive proof that global warming is a hoax.


It strikes me as being a bit disingenuous to demand that evidence rise to the level of proof before it deserves to be given any consideration.

It also seems like a bully boy tactic designed to inhibit the presentation of evidence and/or open discussion.

I notice that AD uses this 'trick' quite a lot, so at least it has a good pedigree.

But yes, Dr. Evil; evidence is not proof.

Anyway, global warming is not a hoax, the world has warmed about .8 degrees in the last 130 years.

The hoax is merely the thing that manipulators and well meaning stooges with an inordinate need for a rationale that feeds their sense of righteousness have turned Climate Change into.

But yeah sure, lets get all worked up over a bunch of computer modeling that predicts dire outcomes for our future, while at the same time we ignore empirically verified events that are happening RIGHT NOW, and is sickening ALL of us even as we speak.


Fantasy terror is so much more fun than is real terror. Perhaps that explains peoples choices for 'the most important issue of our times'TM


This post is quite spectacular given that it becomes a contender for worst, and most wrong headed piece of garbage presented on this site this year, just a few short days before close of play - 2013.

That must be some kind of achievement. Your strawman you attack, actually bests you - beaten by your own false equivalence and inane ramblings, you then go on to smearing another forum user who (to the best of my knowledge) has never posted in this thread. Snide and stupid

You say nothing of value here - well done you. Worst post of the year
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Sat Dec 28, 2013 5:24 pm

You must live in an isolated place, Sounder, if you believe 'we're' ignoring much of anything today. In fact, I believe we're more aware today of what's sickening us than we've ever before been. And more are working on healing those ills than at any time before. Because you are not within such a community perhaps this causes you your frustration, I don't know, but I do know actively working to reduce poisons brings success and does make things better and safer.

You beat around the bush... Name the unnamed Terror we all should be terrified of. I mean the real one, as it really doesn't matter to me what your "fantasy terror" might be.

Oh, and what is 'the most important issue of our times'?
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby DrEvil » Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:11 pm

What Rory said. I was being sarcastic because he posted a story about the weather in a thread about the climate. Some people seem to have the two confused. This is just the same old "This winter was cold, so global warming must be a hoax/the sun" logic (or lack thereof).
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby nomo » Sun Dec 29, 2013 1:40 am

Average weather is climate. Climate is not the seven-day forecast.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Sounder » Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:42 am

Rory wrote…
This post is quite spectacular given that it becomes a contender for worst, and most wrong headed piece of garbage presented on this site this year, just a few short days before close of play - 2013.

You say nothing of value here - well done you. Worst post of the year

Thanks Rory, everyone knows the value of your incite on so many topics.

Hey, what do you think, could you consider me for second and third worst posts of the year also?

Submitted for your judgement.

This was my second post on pg 44,

Iamwhomiam, try this maybe.

climate change concern creates a meme among the general population that says ‘our leaders’ have great concern for future generations.

This meme happens to counter and cover for several of the duplicitous needs of power.
First off, it provides a facile reason for calling another person ‘pro-polluter’.
It’s also an excellent antidote to deep politics in general, well because the club of Rome clearly has the best interests at heart for humanity in general.
Was there ever any MSM coverage of the total chemical decimation of Fallujah?
How bout Fukushima? Any news? Corexit? What about the state dept big wigs being sales agents for Monsanto?
Do people who ‘care’ about future generations salt a sizable portion of this world with depleted uranium?


So, this is put to the lie when we see the variety and extent to which power will resort to in order to maintain itself.

Part of that image maintenance involves throwing all kinds of money at various ‘good’ causes. And I’m not being facetious, as quite a lot of the money does seem to do good work.

Yet as Rockefeller, and many megalomaniacs before and after him have found, one can define the agenda if one has a good enough hook.

Rockefellers hook was ‘modern medicine’. Yes, the practice of medicine at the time deserved a fair bit of criticism and there was need for better standards, but what we have at this point is a VERY polluting system, to both individuals at all levels and to the larger environment. We have grown to rely on many long-chain molecules to provide ‘cures’ and to control and design our surroundings.

This was not a ‘necessary’ occurrence; we could live much of even modern life without, or with better formulations and control of the toxic materials.

We are not in control of our situation because as a general population we are passively unaware of the larger forces that shape our psyches.

Our psyches are built around coercion
. One might control its effects in ones personal life, but in the big world, it’s fucking everywhere and is indeed quite sickening for both the individual and the entire system. Coercion is the death blood and soul of Thantos.

CO2 is not making the system sick, coercion backed by a vertical authority distribution system is the element that could crash the system.

Think about it, common sense says the system would ‘work’ better if more people had critical thinking abilities, yet a vertical authority distribution system demands that ones thoughts be inhibited so as to show preference the ‘authority’ or mental fashion of the moment.

Now you are welcome to argue with points I make but it is not at all ‘critical thinking’ to mock what is said or to deflect by avoidance, derision or other tricks, so that you do not address the basic assertion that climate change concern (among its sponsors) is a fig leaf that effectively covers some very sordid examples of anatomy.

The preceding sentence references a video posted by a member suggesting that I lacked the critical thinking skills of a two year old.
This sort of thing may discourage other weak willed people from considering the perspective I present, but it’s really quite silly and some folk around here are really quite old enough by now to have grown up more than what it sometimes appears.



How about this post Rory, could this be in the competition?

Most of my friends (and a portion of my family) are or have been activists, environmentalists, feminists or spiritual seekers of some sort (mostly Buddhists’).

I wish them all well in their efforts, but am often struck by the notion that the form of the signifier dominates the substance, that then seems to get sublimated by institutional and maybe tribal limiters.

In contrast to BenD’s approach, a ‘slow evolution’ path is more to my liking. I do not care to ‘transcend’ anything but the coercion that seems so endemic to this stage of human development.

We are disrespecting this Earth that sustains us.

Yet to my mind, the modern sources of disrespect are better traced to pharmaceutical co, war, MIC, Monsanto, GE, and the polarizing normative narrative that is required to sustain the associated power structure.

When people ask, why would the ‘elite’s spoil the whole world when they and their children live here also, they fail to realize that without the maintenance of this coercive narrative the ‘elite’ would disappear.

Maintenance of our current narrative is ALL that the infinite money men spend their treasures on.

Because western exceptionalism is a centerpiece of this narrative, AGW and the associated notion that we can ‘save civilization’ through science and application of political will serves well the conceits of WE.

If our split reality narrative were to be replaced by a continuum based model for our narrative, we might become creatures of a much more positive conditioning process where we are able to recognize value in the thinking of others without always and only finding allies and enemies.

Being that the infinite money men got us (largely) into this mess, it hardly seems likely that they have standing to get us out.


Or maybe this post;
Rory

It is hardly pseudo-techno shamanism, to observe and opine that the folk who have amassed great sums of money with little regard to the long term common good are same folk that now commit huge sums of money toward ‘fixing’ our world.

It is therefore reasonable to suspect that AGW is analogous to the war on cancer or the war on drugs, which is as an attention getter with no real intention of solving any real problems.

Same thing with ‘Rockefellers’ green revolution; all form, no substance.

This is my read on the situation and if you cannot see or deal with any substance of what is written maybe you would do better to stay silent.



Rory wrote…
again, a lot of jargon laden mumbo jumbo but what you say all boils down to you thinking the lizards are enslaving us. Insightful stuff



And then we come full circle with this scintillating example of ‘critical thinking’ whereby the content of my assertions is quite simply dismissed by reducing them to ‘thinking the lizards are enslaving us’.

Chew on dem poison pills Rory, dem good for you.
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby coffin_dodger » Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:18 am

Evening Lecture (at the US Naval War College) Jeremy Jackson: Ocean Apocalypse

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No discussion is allowed in church

Postby Sounder » Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:22 am

What Rory said. I was being sarcastic because he posted a story about the weather in a thread about the climate. Some people seem to have the two confused. This is just the same old "This winter was cold, so global warming must be a hoax/the sun" logic (or lack thereof).


Post got dumped; shorter version—

Half of the posts on this thread work on the fallacy that weather is climate. From hurricanes to drought to hot spots, while these things may lend support to the AGW position, they do not provide proof, same as on the other side.

Remember the clever video and song naming hurricanes after ‘deniers’, during a time of fewer than average incidence of hurricanes. Still, better than Santa’s recent lament, or the exploding deniers vid from a few years ago. Who could forget that?
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Iamwhomiam » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:37 am

Two simple questions asked of Sounder remain unanswered. Considering your comprehensive response to Rory, I'm puzzled by your complete ignorance of my questions and lack of argument on any of the points you raised that I contend are false. I mean, especially when you know what the most important issue is we face today. Why hold back such important news?

What do you find terrifying that I'm completely ignorant of, like so many others without your privileged insight?

Here are the two questions I'd like you to answer, Sounder:

"You beat around the bush... Name the unnamed Terror we all should be terrified of. I mean the real one, as it really doesn't matter to me what your "fantasy terror" might be."

"Oh, and what is 'the most important issue of our times'?"
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Rory » Sun Dec 29, 2013 1:03 pm

Sounder » Sun Dec 29, 2013 11:42 am wrote:Rory wrote…
This post is quite spectacular given that it becomes a contender for worst, and most wrong headed piece of garbage presented on this site this year, just a few short days before close of play - 2013.

You say nothing of value here - well done you. Worst post of the year

Thanks Rory, everyone knows the value of your incite on so many topics.

Hey, what do you think, could you consider me for second and third worst posts of the year also?

Submitted for your judgement.

This was my second post on pg 44,

Iamwhomiam, try this maybe.

climate change concern creates a meme among the general population that says ‘our leaders’ have great concern for future generations.

This meme happens to counter and cover for several of the duplicitous needs of power.
First off, it provides a facile reason for calling another person ‘pro-polluter’.
It’s also an excellent antidote to deep politics in general, well because the club of Rome clearly has the best interests at heart for humanity in general.
Was there ever any MSM coverage of the total chemical decimation of Fallujah?
How bout Fukushima? Any news? Corexit? What about the state dept big wigs being sales agents for Monsanto?
Do people who ‘care’ about future generations salt a sizable portion of this world with depleted uranium?


So, this is put to the lie when we see the variety and extent to which power will resort to in order to maintain itself.

Part of that image maintenance involves throwing all kinds of money at various ‘good’ causes. And I’m not being facetious, as quite a lot of the money does seem to do good work.

Yet as Rockefeller, and many megalomaniacs before and after him have found, one can define the agenda if one has a good enough hook.

Rockefellers hook was ‘modern medicine’. Yes, the practice of medicine at the time deserved a fair bit of criticism and there was need for better standards, but what we have at this point is a VERY polluting system, to both individuals at all levels and to the larger environment. We have grown to rely on many long-chain molecules to provide ‘cures’ and to control and design our surroundings.

This was not a ‘necessary’ occurrence; we could live much of even modern life without, or with better formulations and control of the toxic materials.

We are not in control of our situation because as a general population we are passively unaware of the larger forces that shape our psyches.

Our psyches are built around coercion
. One might control its effects in ones personal life, but in the big world, it’s fucking everywhere and is indeed quite sickening for both the individual and the entire system. Coercion is the death blood and soul of Thantos.

CO2 is not making the system sick, coercion backed by a vertical authority distribution system is the element that could crash the system.

Think about it, common sense says the system would ‘work’ better if more people had critical thinking abilities, yet a vertical authority distribution system demands that ones thoughts be inhibited so as to show preference the ‘authority’ or mental fashion of the moment.

Now you are welcome to argue with points I make but it is not at all ‘critical thinking’ to mock what is said or to deflect by avoidance, derision or other tricks, so that you do not address the basic assertion that climate change concern (among its sponsors) is a fig leaf that effectively covers some very sordid examples of anatomy.

The preceding sentence references a video posted by a member suggesting that I lacked the critical thinking skills of a two year old.
This sort of thing may discourage other weak willed people from considering the perspective I present, but it’s really quite silly and some folk around here are really quite old enough by now to have grown up more than what it sometimes appears.



How about this post Rory, could this be in the competition?

Most of my friends (and a portion of my family) are or have been activists, environmentalists, feminists or spiritual seekers of some sort (mostly Buddhists’).

I wish them all well in their efforts, but am often struck by the notion that the form of the signifier dominates the substance, that then seems to get sublimated by institutional and maybe tribal limiters.

In contrast to BenD’s approach, a ‘slow evolution’ path is more to my liking. I do not care to ‘transcend’ anything but the coercion that seems so endemic to this stage of human development.

We are disrespecting this Earth that sustains us.

Yet to my mind, the modern sources of disrespect are better traced to pharmaceutical co, war, MIC, Monsanto, GE, and the polarizing normative narrative that is required to sustain the associated power structure.

When people ask, why would the ‘elite’s spoil the whole world when they and their children live here also, they fail to realize that without the maintenance of this coercive narrative the ‘elite’ would disappear.

Maintenance of our current narrative is ALL that the infinite money men spend their treasures on.

Because western exceptionalism is a centerpiece of this narrative, AGW and the associated notion that we can ‘save civilization’ through science and application of political will serves well the conceits of WE.

If our split reality narrative were to be replaced by a continuum based model for our narrative, we might become creatures of a much more positive conditioning process where we are able to recognize value in the thinking of others without always and only finding allies and enemies.

Being that the infinite money men got us (largely) into this mess, it hardly seems likely that they have standing to get us out.


Or maybe this post;
Rory

It is hardly pseudo-techno shamanism, to observe and opine that the folk who have amassed great sums of money with little regard to the long term common good are same folk that now commit huge sums of money toward ‘fixing’ our world.

It is therefore reasonable to suspect that AGW is analogous to the war on cancer or the war on drugs, which is as an attention getter with no real intention of solving any real problems.

Same thing with ‘Rockefellers’ green revolution; all form, no substance.

This is my read on the situation and if you cannot see or deal with any substance of what is written maybe you would do better to stay silent.



Rory wrote…
again, a lot of jargon laden mumbo jumbo but what you say all boils down to you thinking the lizards are enslaving us. Insightful stuff



And then we come full circle with this scintillating example of ‘critical thinking’ whereby the content of my assertions is quite simply dismissed by reducing them to ‘thinking the lizards are enslaving us’.

Chew on dem poison pills Rory, dem good for you.


Good grief, you are all over the map. You lack the focus to discuss the points three seperate people have raised and instead go off on a schizophrenic rant about stuff you said (and I responded to) months ago.

And then talk about poison pills? How about an apology to AD for your inappropriate slander?

If I wanted to, I could dredge up the waffle you gave me (back in the day) in response to specific questions I asked but I am talking about to day. My inference is you are acting in bad faith. How about you discuss today, and respond to what you were talking about in that wholly wrongheaded post of yours
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