Russia's de facto invasion of Ukraine

[seemslikeadream]

Obama’s Dumbest Plan Yet

Posted on Mar 1, 2014

By Mike Whitney, CounterPunch

This piece first appeared on CounterPunch.

Washington and Brussels … used a Nazi coup, carried out by insurgents, terrorists and politicians of Euromaidan to serve the geopolitical interests of the West.”
— Natalia Vitrenko, The Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine

The United States helped defeat Nazism in World War II. Obama helped bring it back.

As you probably know by now, Obama and Co. have ousted Ukraine’s democratically-elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, with the help of ultra-right, paramilitary, neo-Nazi gangs who seized and burned government offices, killed riot police, and spread mayhem and terror across the country. These are America’s new allies in the Great Game, the grand plan to “pivot to Asia” by pushing further eastward, toppling peaceful governments, securing vital pipeline corridors, accessing scarce oil and natural gas reserves and dismantling the Russian Federation consistent with the strategy proposed by geopolitical mastermind, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Brzezinski’s magnum opus–”The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and it’s Geostrategic Imperatives” has become the Mein Kampf for aspiring western imperialists. It provides the basic blueprint for establishing US military-political-economic hegemony in the century’s most promising and prosperous region, Asia. In an article in Foreign Affairs Brzezinski laid out his ideas about neutralizing Russia by splitting the country into smaller parts, thus, allowing the US to maintain its dominant role in the region without threat of challenge or interference. Here’s an excerpt from the article:

Given (Russia’s) size and diversity, a decentralized political system and free-market economics would be most likely to unleash the creative potential of the Russian people and Russia’s vast natural resources. A loosely confederated Russia — composed of a European Russia, a Siberian Republic, and a Far Eastern Republic — would also find it easier to cultivate closer economic relations with its neighbors. Each of the confederated entitles would be able to tap its local creative potential, stifled for centuries by Moscow’s heavy bureaucratic hand. In turn, a decentralized Russia would be less susceptible to imperial mobilization. (Zbigniew Brzezinski,“A Geostrategy for Eurasia”)

Moscow is keenly aware of Washington’s divide and conquer strategy, but has downplayed the issue in order to avoid a confrontation. The US-backed coup in Ukraine means that that option is no longer feasible. Russia will have to respond to a provocation that threatens both its security and vital interests. Early reports suggest that Putin has already mobilized troops to the East and –according to Reuters “put fighter jets along its western borders on combat alert.” Here’s more from Reuters:
The United States says any Russian military action would be a grave mistake. But Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Moscow would defend the rights of its compatriots and react without compromise to any violation of those rights. (Reuters)

There’s going to be a confrontation, it’s just a matter of whether the fighting will escalate or not.

In order to topple Yanukovych, the US had to tacitly support fanatical groups of neo-Nazi thugs and anti-Semites. And, even though “Interim Ukrainian President Oleksander Tuchynov has pledged to do everything in his power to protect the country’s Jewish community”; reports on the ground are not so encouraging. Here’s an excerpt from a statement by Natalia Vitrenko, of The Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine that suggests the situation is much worse than what is being reported in the news:

Across the country… People are being beaten and stoned, while undesirable members of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are subject to mass intimidation and local officials see their families and children targeted by death threats if they do not support the installation of this new political power. The new Ukrainian authorities are massively burning the offices of political parties they do not like, and have publicly announced the threat of criminal prosecution and prohibition of political parties and public organizations that do not share the ideology and goals of the new regime. (“USA and EU Are Erecting a Nazi Regime on Ukrainian Territory”, Natalia Vitrenko)

Earlier in the week, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that a Ukranian synagogue had been firebombed although the “Molotov cocktails struck the synagogue’s exterior stone walls and caused little damage”.

Another article in Haaretz referred to recent developments as “the new dilemma for Jews in Ukraine”. Here’s an excerpt from the article:

The greatest worry now is not the uptick in anti-Semitic incidents but the major presence of ultra-nationalist movements, especially the prominence of the Svoboda party and Pravy Sektor (right sector) members among the demonstrators. Many of them are calling their political opponents “Zhids” and flying flags with neo-Nazi symbols. There have also been reports, from reliable sources, of these movements distributing freshly translated editions of Mein Kampf and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion in Independence Square. (“Anti-Semitism, though a real threat, is being used by the Kremlin as a political football”, Haaretz)

Then there’s this, from Dr. Inna Rogatchi in Arutz Sheva:

There is no secret concerning the real political agenda and programs of ultra-nationalist parties in Ukraine – there is nothing close to European values and goals there. One just should open existing documents and hear what the representatives of those parties proclaim daily. They are sharply anti-European, and highly racist. They have nothing to do with the values and practices of the civilized world…

Ukrainian Jewry is facing a real and serious threat….To empower the openly neo-Nazi movements in Europe by ignoring the threat they pose is an utterly risky business. People should not have to pay a terrible price – again – for the meekness and indifference of their leaders. As Ukraine today has become the tragic show-case for all of Europe with regards to breeding and allowing race-hatred to become a violent and uncontrollable force, it is impertive to handle the situation there in accordance with existing international law and norms of civilization. (“Tea With Neo-Nazis: The Violent Nationalism in Ukraine“, Arutz Sheva)

Here’s a little more background on the topic by progressive analyst Stephen Lendmen from a February 25 post titled “New York Times: Supporting US Imperial Lawlessness”:

Washington openly backs fascist Svoboda party leader Oleh Tyahnybok…In 2004, Tyahnybok was expelled from former President Viktor Yushchenko’s parliamentary faction. He was condemned for urging Ukrainians to fight against a “Muscovite-Jewish mafia.”

In 2005, he denounced “criminal activities” of “organized Jewry.” He outrageously claimed they plan “genocide” against Ukrainians.”…

Tyahnybok extremism didn’t deter Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland. On February 6, she met openly with him and other anti-government leaders.

In early January, 15,000 ultranationalists held a torchlight march through Kiev. They did so to honor Nazi-era collaborator/mass murderer Stepan Bandera. Some wore uniforms a Wehrmacht Ukrainian division used in WW II. Others chanted “Ukraine above all” and “Bandera, come and bring order. (Steve Lendman blog)
Of course, the US media has downplayed the fascistic-neo-Nazi “ethnic purity” element of the Ukrainian coup in order to focus on– what they think — are more “positive themes”, like the knocking down of statues of Lenin or banning Communist party members from participating in Parliament. As far as the media is concerned, these are all signs of progress.

Ukraine is gradually succumbing to the loving embrace of the New World Order where it will serve as another profit-generating cog in Wall Street’s wheel. That’s the theory, at least. It hasn’t occurred to the boneheads at the New York Times or Washington Post that Ukraine is rapidly descending into Mad Max-type anarchy which could spill over its borders into neighboring countries triggering violent conflagrations, social upheaval, regional instability or–god-help-us– WW3. The MSM sees nothing but silver linings as if everything was going according to plan. All of Eurasia, the Middle East and beyond are being pacified and integrated into one world government overseen by the unitary executive who defers to no one but the corporations and financial institutions who control the levers of power behind imperial shoji-screen. What could go wrong?

Naturally, Russia is worried about developments in Ukraine, but is unsure how to react. Here’s how Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev summed it up the other day:

We do not understand what is going on there. A real threat to our interests (exists) and to the lives and health of our citizens. Strictly speaking, today there is no one there to communicate with … If you think that people in black masks waving Kalashnikovs (represent) a government, then it will be difficult for us to work with such a government.

Clearly, Moscow is confused and worried. No one expects the world’s only superpower to behave this irrationally, to hop-scotch across the planet creating one failed state after another, fomenting revolt, breeding hatred, and spreading misery wherever it goes. At present, the Obama team is operating at full-throttle trying to topple regimes in Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, and god-knows where else. At the same time, failed operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have left all three countries in dire straights, ruled by regional warlords and armed militias. Medvedev has every right to be concerned.

Who wouldn’t be? The US has gone off the rails, stark raving mad. The architecture for global security has collapsed while the basic principals of international law have been jettisoned. The rampaging US juggernaut lurches from one violent confrontation to the next without rhyme or reason, destroying everything in its path, forcing millions to flee their own countries, and pushing the world closer to the abyss. Isn’t that reason enough to be concerned?

Now Obama has thrown-in with the Nazis. It’s just the icing on the cake.

Check out this blurb from Max Blumenthal’s latest titled “Is the U.S. Backing Neo-Nazis in Ukraine?”:

Right Sector is a shadowy syndicate of self-described ‘autonomous nationalists’ identified by their skinhead style of dress, ascetic lifestyle, and fascination with street violence. Armed with riot shields and clubs, the group’s cadres have manned the front lines of the Euromaidan battles this month, filling the air with their signature chant: ‘Ukraine above all!’ In a recent Right Sector propaganda video the group promised to fight ‘against degeneration and totalitarian liberalism, for traditional national morality and family values.’

With Svoboda linked to a constellation of international neo-fascist parties through the Alliance of European National Movements, Right Sector is promising to lead its army of aimless, disillusioned young men on “a great European Reconquest.

(“Is the U.S. Backing Neo-Nazis in Ukraine?—Exposing troubling ties in the U.S. to overt Nazi and fascist protesters in Ukraine“, Max Blumenthal, AlterNet)

“Family values”? Where have we heard that before?

It’s clear, that Obama and his brainiac advisors think they have a handle on this thing and can train this den of vipers to click their heels and follow Washington’s directives, but it sounds like a bad bet to me. These are hard-core, died-in-the-wool, Nazi-extremists. They won’t be bought-off, co-opted or intimidated. They have an agenda and they aim to pursue that agenda to their last, dying breath.

Of all the dumb plans Washington has come up with in the couple years, this is the dumbest.

[Nordic]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_As ... 80214.html

THE ROVING EYE
Carnival in Crimea
By Pepe Escobar

Time waits for no one, but apparently will wait for Crimea. The speaker of the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, has confirmed there will be a referendum on greater autonomy from Ukraine on May 25.

Until then, Crimea will be as hot and steamy as carnival in Rio - because Crimea is all about Sevastopol, the port of call for the Russian Black Sea fleet.

If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a bull, this is the red flag to end all red flags. Even if you're deep in alcohol nirvana



dancin' your troubles away at carnival in Rio - or New Orleans, or Venice, or Trinidad and Tobago - your brain will have registered that NATO's ultimate wet dream is to command a Western puppet Ukrainian government to kick the Russian navy out of its base in Sevastopol. The negotiated lease applies until 2042. Threats and rumors of reneging it have already emerged.

The absolute majority of the Crimean peninsula is populated by Russian speakers. Very few Ukrainians live there. In 1954, it took only 15 minutes for Ukrainian Nikita Krushchev - he of the banging shoe at the UN floor - to give Crimea as a free gift to Ukraine (then part of the USSR). In Russia, Crimea is perceived as Russian. Nothing will change that fact.

We're not facing a new Crimean War - yet. Only up to a point. NATO's wet dream is one thing; it is quite another to pull it off - as in ending the Russian fleet routinely leaving Sevastopol across the Black Sea through the Bosphorus and then reaching Tartus, Syria's Mediterranean port. So yes, this is as much about Syria as about Crimea.

The new Ukrainian Orange, Tangerine, Campari, Aperol Spritz or Tequila Sunrise revolution seems so far to have answered NATO's prayers. But it's a long and winding road for NATO to reenact the 1850s and remix the original Crimean War.

For the foreseeable future, we will be drowning in a white sea of platitudes. As in Pentagon supremo Chuck Hagel "warning" Russia to stay out of the turmoil, while NATO's defense ministers issue the requisite pile of statements that no one reads "showing support" for the new leadership, and corporate shills reassure the populace this is not a new Cold War. [1]

Dance to my strategy, suckers
Where's H L Mencken when we need him? No one ever lost money underestimating the mendacity of the Pentagon/NATO/CIA/State Department system. Especially now, when Ukrainian policy seems to have been subcontracted by the Obama administration to the likes of neo-con Victoria "F**k the EU" Nuland, married to Dubya darling neo-con Robert Kagan.

As Immanuel Wallerstein has already observed, [2] Nuland, Kagan and the neo-con gang are as much terrified of Russia "dominating" Ukraine as of a slowly emerging, and eventually quite possible, geopolitical alliance between Germany (with France as a junior partner) and Russia. That would mean the heart of the European Union forging a counter-power to the dwindling, increasingly wobbly American power.

And as the current embodiment of wobbly American power, the Obama administration is really in a class by itself. They are now lost in their own, self-concocted "pivot" maze. Which pivot comes first? That one to China? But then we need to pivot to Iran first - to end that Middle East distraction. Or maybe not.

Take this latest sound bite by US Secretary of State John Kerry, on Iran: "We took the initiative and led the effort to try to figure out if before we go to war there actually might be a peaceful solution."

So suddenly it's not about a nuclear deal to be possibly attained in 2014 anymore; it's about "if before we go to war". It's about bombing a possible deal so the Empire may bomb a country - again. Or maybe that's just a wet dream supplied by the Likudnik puppet masters.

The great Michael Hudson has speculated that "multi-dimensional chess" might be "guiding US moves in the Ukraine". Not really. It's more like if we can't pivot to China - yet - and if the pivot to Iran is going to fail anyway (because we want it to), we might as well pivot somewhere else. Oh yes, that pesky place that prevented us from bombing Syria; it's called Russia. And all that under the profound guidance of Victoria "F**k the EU" Nuland. Where's a neo-Aristophanes to chronicle these marvels?

And never forget US corporate media. That CNN hack has been Amanpouring lately about the Budapest Agreement - stressing Russia should stay out of Ukraine. Well, visibly a horde of producers at ratings-falling-to-the-floor CNN have not even read the Budapest Agreement which, as University of Illinois professor Francis Boyle has noted, "also states that the US, Russia, Ukraine, and UK need to immediately jointly 'consult' - meaning meet at least at the foreign minister level".

So who pays the bills?
The new prime minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, is - what else - a "technocratic reformer", code for Western puppet. [3] Ukraine is a (torn) basket case. The currency has fallen 20% since the start of 2014. Millions of unemployed Europeans know the European Union does not have the dough to bail out the country (perhaps Ukrainians could ask former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi for some tips).

In Pipelineistan terms, Ukraine is an appendix to Russia; it's Russian gas that transits through Ukraine to European markets. And Ukrainian industry depends on the Russian market.

Let's take a closer look at the new Aperol Spritz "revolutionary" wallet. Every month, the natural gas import bill from Russia is roughly US$1 billion. In January, the country also had to spend $1.1 billion in debt repayment. Foreign currency reserves plunged to $17.8 billion from $20.4 billion. Ukraine has a minimum debt repayment of no less than $17 billion in 2014. They even had to cancel a $2 billion eurobond issue late last week.

Frankly, Russian President Vladimir Putin - aka Vlad the Hammer - must be grinning like the Cheshire cat. He could simply erase the significant 33% discount on natural gas imports he gave Kiev late last year. Rumor after rumor already state - ominously - that the Aperol Spritz revolutionaries won't have the cash to pay pensions and public servants' salaries. In June comes a monster payment to a bunch of creditors ($1 billion in debt will mature). Afterwards, it's bleaker than north Siberia in winter.

The US offer of $1 billion is risible. And all this after the ""F**k the EU" "strategy" of Victoria Nuland torpedoed an Ukrainian transitional government - by the way, negotiated by the EU - which might have kept the Russians on board, money-wise.

Without Russia, Ukraine will totally depend on the West to pay all its bills, not to mention avoid being bankrupt. That amounts to a whopping $30 billion until the end of 2014. Unlike Egypt, they cannot dial the House of Saud's number and ask for some juicy petrodollars. That $15 billion loan from Russia promised recently could come in handy - but Moscow must get something in return.

The notion that Putin will order a military attack on the Ukraine should be billed to US corporate media's sub-zoological intellectual quotient. Vlad the Hammer just needs to watch the circus - as in the West squabbling about where to get those billions to be squandered in a (torn) basket case. Or the International Monetary Fund churning out yet another dreadful "structural adjustment" to send Ukraine's population back to the Paleolithic.

Crimea could even stage its own delayed carnival, voting not only for more autonomy but to leave the (torn) basket case altogether. In this case, Putin will even get Crimea for free - Krushchev-style. Not a bad deal. Thanks to that oh so strategic "F**k the EU" Russian "pivot".

Notes:
1. US and Britain say Ukraine is not a battleground between East and West, Daily Telegraph, February 26, 2014.
2. See here.
3. Biden: U.S. Supports Ukraine's New Government, Voice of America, February 27, 2014.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007), Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge (Nimble Books, 2007), and Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).

He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

(Copyright 2014 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

[Peachtree Pam]

This is from a Serbian site - don't know how valid the report is.

Ukraine’s Navy flagship refuses to follow orders from Kiev – report
http://inserbia.info/news/2014/03/ukrai ... ev-report/

Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.
There has been conflicting information on where exactly the vessel is, but a Russian senator has confirmed to Izvestia daily that the frigate defected to the Russian side, RT reported.

“Ukraine’s Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew’s flag,” Senator Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia daily.

He said the flagship is on its way back to the Black Sea after drills in the Mediterranean. “The crew has fulfilled the order by the chief commander of Ukraine’s armed forces Viktor Yanukovich,” he added.

The following paragraphs from JohnGalt site:
http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2014/0 ... to-defect/
clip......
The move comes after the Navy command resigned Friday. Self-appointed President Aleksandr Turchinov made Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky the new Navy Chief, a statement published on the President’s website Saturday said.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Prime Minister of Ukraine had earlier asked his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to let the frigate through the Bosporus strait, according to the Kiev Times. The ship captain and the head of Ukraine’s contingent in the operation, Rear Admiral Andrey Tarasov disobeyed orders from Kiev.

The Hetman Sahaidachny returns to Sevastopol, Crimea after taking part in a joint counter-piracy operation with NATO and the EU off the Horn of Africa, reported UNN on Friday, citing Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. On February 26, after crossing the Suez Canal, the ship entered the Mediterranean Sea and was expected to be in Sevastopol in early March.

[Peachtree Pam]

IMF moves in. This is from Euronews.

http://www.euronews.com/2014/02/28/ukra ... onditions/

Ukraine hopes for aid soon, PM says will meet IMF reform conditions
28/02 18:19 CET

Ukraine’s newly minted central bank head and prime minister have said they hope to receive international financial aid soon and right now they have enough foreign currency reserves to cover their debt repayments.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said he has spoken to the US and the EU about credit and additional foreign currency.

He told reporters at a news conference at the central bank that the interim government is determined to make the reforms called for by the International Monetary Fund in return for loans: “A key priority is resuming the programme of collaboration with the International Monetary Fund. And we will fulfill all the conditions, I repeat, all the conditions, that are necessary for this loan, and Ukraine’s parliament and the coalition will vote for the laws that are necessary for receiving this money.”

IMF officials are due in Kyiv next week for talks with Ukraine’s new leaders, who have said the heavily indebted country needs at least 35 billion dollars over two years to avoid bankruptcy.

IMF’s Lagarde: Don’t panic

IMF chief Christine Lagarde said right now everyone should keep calm: “We need to rely on facts, we need to rely on the situation as it is, we do not see anything that is critical, that is worthy of panic at the moment. We would certainly hope that the (Ukrainian) authorities refrain from throwing lots of numbers which are really meaningless until they’ve been assessed properly.”

The don’t panic advice did little to reassure Ukrainians who continue to hit the cash machines, withdrawing money at a break-neck pace.

The central bank said people can take out as much as they want in the local currency – the hryvnia – which has fallen dramatically in value during the crisis.

But foreign currency withdrawals have been limited to the equivalent of $1,500 – just over 1,000 euros – per day.

European Union assessment

A small team of financial experts from the European Commission will travel to Ukraine on Monday to assess exactly how much financial assistance it needs, EU officials said.

The team from the Commission’s directorate-general for economic and financial affairs is expected to meet Ukrainian finance ministry and central bank officials to determine what the country’s budget shortfall and capital needs are.

“The first thing we need to do is to understand precisely how much they need,” said a senior official briefed on the visit. “There are a lot of numbers being thrown around and it isn’t helping to clarify the situation.”

Officials said that once Kyiv had reached a deal with the IMF, the EU could disburse an earlier promised amount of 610 million euros in aid. Together with the IMF loans, that would cover Ukraine’s immediate needs.

Russian help

In a low-key statement Russia’s President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to work with Ukrainian and foreign partners to find a financial package to shore up Ukraine’s collapsing finances.

The question now for Russia is how much to spend to help the Slavic, Orthodox Christian neighbour and its crumbling economy.

“No matter what Russia does, Kyiv will be firmly pro-Western. The only question left is are we prepared to pay more for this course or not?” said Alexei Pushkov, a Putin loyalist and a senior member of parliament.

The Kremlin said in its statement Putin had ordered his government “to conduct consultations with foreign partners, including the International Monetary Fund, on the provision of financial aid to Ukraine”.

The Kremlin statement offered little insight into the mind of a man who hoped Ukraine would play a central role in his project for a trade bloc stretching from the frontiers of China to the edge of the EU.

But it spoke volumes to his attitude towards Western support for the new leadership in Ukraine, and contained a veiled warning along the lines of – if you hold talks on rescuing Kyiv from bankruptcy without us, Moscow will act.

Russia looks unlikely to press on with its $15-billion bailout for Ukraine, which had been seen as a reward for Yanukovich’s decision to spurn a trade deal with the European Union in favour of closer ties to Moscow.

“For him (Putin), Kyiv no longer exists. There was an agreement with Western countries which those Western countries did not fulfil. I think that is uppermost in his thoughts,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin spin doctor.

“He was tricked and he has to punish that.”

with Reuters

[gnosticheresy_2]

Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine push the west into an economic war?

by Paul Mason

I came home on a London bus last night.

Everybody was engrossed in the normal: the plays they’d seen, the football results.

Few people betrayed any grasp of the odds that they were living through the last days of globalisation and multilateral order – but they are high.

01 putin2 g w Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine push the west into an economic war?

Here’s why. Russia has resolved to use military power, and if necessary force, in Ukraine.

Its likely goals are to occupy Crimea and to bolster the possibility of an eastern Ukraine secession towards the Russian Federation itself.

The west – morally bankrupted by the Iraq war, Guantanamo and serial human rights violations – in August 2013 gave a major signal to Vladimir Putin that it would not intervene in Syria.

Leave aside military action, the west would not even pursue its own objectives by diplomatic force. He took it as a signal that it would not intervene anywhere.

Implicitly, from that moment on, the idea of America as a superpower enforcing international law was over. If Russia now invades Ukraine the west will protest about territorial integrity.

But the Ukraine government was overthrown by armed force. In reality everything is about practicality, not principle.

There are dangers, on both sides, of emotion and principle forcing events beyond the control of the main players – Putin, Obama, and an EU so disunited that it has to rely on the Polish foreign minister to display any kind of leadership.

Where we are right now is the result of a huge failure of diplomacy.

If we attribute that failure to the west – Nato, the UN, the EU – it is because Putin’s diplomacy is transparently based on force and injustice.

The jailing and later tactical pardoning of political opponents; the use of polonium to poison dissidents; the assassination of troublesome journalists – Putin has made no pretense of observing the rule of law.

The west – run by a generation that believes the market is the solution to everything – suddenly found you cannot outsource strategy; that there are situations in which the boss of JP Morgan cannot help you; and that the pursuit of legally dubious wars of conquest, by legally indefensible means, flattens the public appetite for force for a generation.

If Russia invades Ukraine its likely aim will be to partition it; its longer term aim will be to get the west to accept that partition and carry on as normal.

The epoch making nature of this crisis lies, then, in the west’s response. Few in the west beyond Poland will have the appetite for a military confrontation with Russia.

The two big armies in Europe are Polish and German.

But Germany, Europe’s dominant power, has an aversion to diplomatic responsibility matched only by its addiction to fiscal parsimony.

So the likely response of the west will be economic: the sudden end to toleration of of the dodgy Russian money that has flooded into its finance, football and energy systems.

The seizure of certain mansions in North London. The closure of bank accounts in Cyprus and the Caymans.

Then the ball is not in Russia’s court but China’s. China has played the role of sleeping partner in global diplomacy during its economic rise. Generally it has worked to limit and disrupt the west’s political and economic power.

If an economic proxy war breaks out between the EU, USA and Russia, and China backs the latter, then you can kiss globalisation goodbye.

That is why, as we wake up, come out of the theatre, or the shower, and pick up our smartphones, the sensible thing to check for is not the outbreak of World War Three, but the end of the global order.

Its fragmentation – and the slow realisation that everything from wages, to production networks, to energy policy has to change on the morrow of Russian troops arriving in Lugansk or Kharkov.

The Russian people have been living in a world that oscillates between dream and nightmare since 1991.

Putin offered them a dream: a revived economy and the kind of macho power that tramples on gay rights, makes America look powerless in Syria, jails a punk band, convicts a dead attorney, jails every political opposition leader.

It was not subtextual. Every second of the Sochi opening ceremony spelled it out, just as every meeting Putin has had with football hooligan groups, or every bare chested media stunt, also spelled it out.

Large numbers of Russian people reject this vision, bury their noses in their iPads on the metro and make money, hoping the worst will go away and that their savings will be safe in London, or Switzerland.

That is another dream that will die if shots are fired between Ukraine and Russia.

Our political leaders are having to pinch themselves; the country they thought they’d brought into the fold by making themselves dependent on its energy and merely scolding its human rights violations is on the verge of making their entire strategy look foolish.

But that’s only their secondary problem. Their biggest problem is that China, the country they exported 250 million industrial jobs to, and whose human rights violations they have ignored, and whose strange, incommunicative elite they have cheered on, does not care.

If the worst does happen, and this crisis becomes a war, the only positives lie in ordinary people’s revulsion to war; their determination to live by, and assert, the principles of human rights.

That’s ultimately what made people take tin shields up against .50 cal sniper rifles in Kiev, and what made hundreds of thousands of Russians go on the streets against Putin in late 2011.

In 2012 I wrote that Putin’s fate is intertwined with those of mass movements:

“To lose Syria and Iran would be the diplomatic equivalent of the (1905) battle of Tsushima… Revolution in Syria and Iran would leave Russia’s power in the world severely curtailed.

“But with every speech, every veto, every attack helicopter shipped to his failing allies, Putin seems determined to prepare this diplomatic Tsushima thus are the global revolutions and the Russian struggle for democracy linked.

The White Ribbon revolution is not just a local reflection of uprisings elsewhere: its fate is intertwined with them.” (Why It’s Still Kicking Off Everywhere, London 2013)

Having reported from the Ukraine, seen the venality of its pro-Western politicians and the atomization of democratic forces, I did not even consider the possibility that it would be revolution in Ukraine that triggered a diplomatic Tsushima for Vladimir Vladimirovich.

I was short sighted. Whatever the military and political outcome in Ukraine, the diplomatic Tsushima is under way.

Follow @paulmasonnews on Twitter

[kool maudit]

21st century politics, with their watery incantations relating to "dialogue" and "respect", are being made to look like very thin gruel indeed by Putin's straight-up 19th-century moves...

[82_28]

Well said, maudit. Well said. I logged on to say something similar and there your comment was.

But I've been thinking for a couple of years about how we "expect" WWIII like it's a given. Since "WWI" and WWII" happened in the 20th century perhaps what the 20th century expected out of "World Wars" needs is a rebranding for the 21st? Let's face it, the "world war" has become a brand. I was at the bookstore tonight and was struck by the importance for authors in the history area to explore every last aspect through hundreds and hundreds of pages and give them all their own title -- when in fact just one truthful book would do. I'm not saying we want that, just that it was a swirl of a bunch of shit I already knew and frankly didn't want to waste the money or time on the books. I felt bad. Perhaps I do not know the fine details but I do know I am de facto anti-war in all cases.

[seemslikeadream]

Ukraine 'on brink of national disaster,' PM says

Russia's parliament unanimously voted to send troops into Ukraine Saturday, defiantly ignoring President Obama's warning to stay out. VPC

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials were tense Sunday, ordering up all military reservists to active duty while in the Crimean region in the south of the country, road traffic was blocked as telecommunications remained sporadic — two days after communication centers were seized by unknown armed men.

"The situation is very serious — the Russian army is blocking military bases of Ukraine in Crimea … They issued an ultimatum demanding that our soldiers disarm themselves or the bases will be stormed, said interim president and parliament speaker, Oleksandr Turchinov, on Sunday.

Speaking after a closed session of parliament in Kiev, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said his country "was on the brink of national disaster" and that if [Russian] President Putin wants to be the president who starts the war between two friendly and neighboring countries, he is inches away from doing it."

"This is not a threat, this is actually a declaration of war to my country," he added.

On Sunday, the interim government in Kiev said the military must be combat-ready after unidentified gunmen — thought to be Russian soldiers — were said to be surrounding Ukrainian military and naval bases in Crimea. Russian military forces have been rolling into the strategic Black Sea peninsula.

"We need a unified army … we believe that discipline and coordination is now extremely important," said Andriy Paruby, secretary of Ukraine's security council, on Sunday.

ANALYSIS: Russia testing the waters on Ukraine invasion

In Crimea, government buildings, airports and communications centers continued to be held by groups of armed men, believed by some to be local defense militias backed by Russian military.

Local journalists reported that attempts to access the Crimea were unsuccessful after being stopped and turned back at checkpoints manned by local defense groups, soldiers believed to be Russian and the paramilitary units from Kiev that were blamed for deaths of dozens of protesters last month.

Telecom operator Ukrtelecom said their lines had been damaged and that their technicians were "doing everything in their power to normalize the network operator and ensure a speedy recovery of the lines on the peninsula."

Anti-government activists entertain themselves next to a fire at a barricade in central Kiev, Ukraine, on Jan. 31. Anti-government activists entertain themselves next to a fire at a barricade in central Kiev, Ukraine, on Jan. 31. (Photo: Efrem Lukatsky, AP) View Fullscreen
Anti-government activists entertain themselves next to a fire at a barricade in central Kiev, Ukraine, on Jan. 31. Supporters of the Ukrainian president wave flags of the ruling Party of Regions during a rally in the industrial city of Donetsk. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych repealed controversial anti-protest laws Jan. 31. An anti-government activist armed with chainsticks smokes a cigarette at a barricade in central Kiev, Ukraine. Men and women listen to a political speech inside Kiev's Independence Square, center of the country's unrest. Riot police stand watch near fires in front of protesters' barricades in central Kiev, Ukraine. An anti-government activist shines a laser pointer toward police at a barricade in central Kiev, Ukraine. A woman receives rosary beads from a comrade at a barricade near Kiev's Independence Square. An opposition supporter looks at a barricade in central Kiev. Ukrainian riot police stand in line near one of the barricades during the protest in Kiev. A protester stands guard on a barricade near a line of riot police during the protest in Kiev. Kiev and other cities in Ukraine have been riled by often violent street riots since late November, when President Viktor Yanukovych reneged on a trade agreement with the European Union and opted for closer ties with Moscow. Wood shields are decorated with portraits of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych at a makeshif barricade on Jan. 30 in Kiev. Yanukovych has taken sick leave from office for an acute respiratory illness and high fever. A woman cries and shouts at police in Kiev. A protester supporting a deal with the European Union guards a barricade. Riot police face protesters. Women march toward barricades. The posters read, "Mothers, join us" and "Let the world know what the government does." Protesters brandish plywood shields as they block the entry to the Agriculture Ministry on Jan. 29 in Kiev, Ukraine. An anti-government protester stands at a roadblock in Kiev. A demonstrator stands inside the Agriculture Ministry building in Kiev. Anti-government protesters take over the Agriculture Ministry building. A demonstrator guards a makeshift barricade. A woman speaks to riot police at a roadblock on Jan. 28 in Kiev, Ukraine. Ukrainian lawmakers scrapped an anti-protest law in a move aimed at bringing a two-month standoff between demonstrators and the government to an end. Demonstrators guard a makeshift barricade in Kiev. Supporters of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rally in central Kiev. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned, saying he hoped the move would help bring a peaceful resolution to the protest crisis. Supporters of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych stage a rally. Ukrainian opposition leader Oleh Tyahnybok, center, speaks with fellow members at the parliament in Kiev. After talks with opposition leaders, the parliament repealed a series of laws that caused a surge in anti-government protests. A protester guards a makeshift barricade on Jan. 27 in Kiev. The justice minister is threatening to call for a state of emergency unless demonstrators leave the ministry building, which they occupied on Jan. 26. Protesters warm themselves around a fire in Kiev. Ukrainian protesters guard the Ministry of Justice building. Riot police stand in formation during another day of anti-government protests. Demonstrators guard the entrance to the Justice Ministry building. Protesters burn a portrait of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych at the entrance to the Justice Ministry. Demonstrators occupied the building on Jan. 26. Anti-government protesters gather around a barricade at a road block on Jan. 26. People stand behind the barricade in front of riot police in central Kiev on Jan. 26. Ukraine's opposition called off a massive rally planned for Sunday because of the funeral for a protester killed in clashes with police last week, underscoring the rising tensions in the country's two-month political crisis. The opposition contends they were shot by police in an area where demonstrators had been throwing rocks and firebombs at riot police for several days. Protesters attack a government building on Jan. 26 in central Kiev. New violence erupted in Ukraine's capital during the night. Anti-government protesters carry the coffin of 25-year-old Belarussian protester who was shot dead during clashes with security forces. The funeral ceremony was held on Independence Square in Kiev. A man stands next to the burning tires during an anti-government protest in downtown Kiev, Ukraine. A protester throws a Molotov cocktail during an anti-government protest. An anti-government protester uses a large sling shot during clashes with police on Hrushevskoho Street near Dynamo stadium. A man kneels before an Orthodox priest in an area separating police and anti-government protesters near Dynamo Stadium. A man paints a picture of the scene as anti-government protesters clash with police. An anti-government protester throws a Molotov cocktail during clashes with police. Anti-government protesters guard a barricade on a street near Dynamo Stadium. An anti-government protester throws a Molotov cocktail. Ukrainian anti-government protesters walk past burning tires during clashes with riot police in central Kiev early on Jan. 25. A protester guards a barricade Jan. 24 in Kiev, Ukraine. A woman speaks with police officers as they block a street in Kiev. A protester helps a woman cross near a barricade. Anti-government protesters burn tires near Dynamo Stadium. Demonstrators guard a barricade. Protesters guard the makeshift barricades near the entrance to Dynamo Stadium in Kiev. A protester supporting a deal with the European Union shoots fireworks at police on Jan. 23 in Kiev, Ukraine. Protesters use a large makeshift slingshot to fire rocks at police in Kiev. A demonstrator loads a gasoline bomb into a makeshift slingshot. Orthodox priests pray as protesters clash with riot police. Ukrainian demonstrators take cover as they battle security forces. Protesters burn tires as they clash with riot police. Riot police face demonstrators in Kiev. Demonstrators take cover as they battle riot police. Two protesters were shot and killed as Ukrainian police stormed the barricades in Kiev. Protesters who support a deal with the European Union prepare to toss gasoline bombs at riot police on Jan. 22 in Kiev, Ukraine. Violent clashes erupted between demonstrators and police as security forces stormed makeshift barricades. Demonstrators battle police in Kiev on Jan. 22. A woman bandages a wounded demonstrator. A protester prepares to throw a gasoline bomb during clashes with police. Police use their riot shields for protection as they battle demonstrators. A demonstrator is on fire as protesters supporting a pact with the European Union battle police in Kiev. Demonstrators clash with riot police in Kiev. A demonstrator shoots fireworks at police. A line of police officers approaches a makeshift barricade. A demonstrator throws a gasoline bomb. A protester walks past a burning barricade. A demonstrator attacks police. Riot police fight with demonstrators in Kiev. A police officer beats a protester. Protesters use the wreckage of a bus as protection during clashes with riot police. A demonstrator throws a stone at police. A demonstrator is dragged away by a police officer. A protester throws a gasoline bomb. Protesters throw stones at police. An Orthodox priest prays in front of a line of police officers in Kiev. A protester supporting a pact with the European Union sings the Ukrainian national anthem during a rally on Jan. 21 in Kiev. Anti-government protesters held their ground through a night of violent street clashes with police. A pro-European Union activist shouts slogans during clashes with police in Kiev. Police attempted to dismantle the protesters' camp but faced fierce resistance from demonstrators who tossed fire bombs and stones. A demonstrator speaks to police officers. Protesters want the Ukraine to align its politics with the European Union and are demanding the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych, who rejected the EU deal and sought closer ties with Russia. Orthodox priests pray as they stand between protesters and police. A demonstrator prays during an anti-government protest. Protesters battle riot police in downtown Kiev. A grenade explodes during clashes between police and protesters on Jan. 20. A protesters wears improvised protective gear as he prepares to battle police. A protester stands near a burning vehicle. Protesters shoot fireworks at police. Demonstrators battle riot police in downtown Kiev. A protester throws a gasoline bomb at police. A protester throws a gasoline bomb at police on Jan. 20 in Kiev, Ukraine. Protesters built barricades with burned vehicles as police tried to break up anti-government street protests. Protesters cover their ears after an explosion in Kiev.Two hundred people were injured as demonstrators protested the passage of laws aimed at curbing street protests. A police sniper aims at demonstrators. Protesters prepare to toss gasoline bombs at police. Protesters clash with police in Kiev. A protester stands in front of a police line. A protester prepares to throw a gasoline bomb. A demonstrator throws a stone at police during a protest on Jan. 19. Demonstrators burned police cars and tried to break through a police blockade as they attempted to storm the Ukrainian parliament. Protesters clash with riot police in Kiev. Demonstrators attack riot police. People were protesting against the recent passage of laws designed to stifle dissent. They criminalize libel, establish new penalties for unlawful protests and make it easier to strip legislators of their immunity.
Next Slide
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a statement Sunday that Russia's action in Crimea "violates the principles of the United Nations Charter. It threatens peace and security in Europe. Russia must stop its military activities and its threats."

Late Saturday, small rallies were held in Crimean cities expressing support for Russian help even as some locals created a petition signed by tens of thousands telling Russia they didn't need Russian help.

Stories of hard line Ukrainian nationalists from Kiev's Independence Square planning attacks on ethnic Russians have been circulating for weeks. That's why many people in this port city have either welcomed the Russian intervention or said they have no fear of Moscow's forces.

"This isn't really a crisis because all of Sevastopol was afraid of the Maidan movement," said 28-year-old waiter Konstantin Solovev. "We heard many stories that those people were threatening this city."

Even so, some locals created a petition signed by tens of thousands telling Russia they didn't need Russian help.

"Dear Mr. President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, We ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainian nationals do not need other countries to defend our interests," the petition read. "We are grateful to you for support however would like to inform you that nobody has ever infringed our rights on Ukrainian territory ... therefore, we would ask you to not raise an internal question for our country which is not a burning issue for us ... Not to mention bringing troops in to regulate a conflict which you may see but which is not visible to us."

Tensions have been running high following at least eight Russian transport planes landed Friday at a military base, delivering unknown goods and personnel. Ukraine's Crimea province has an ethnic Russian majority and hosts the Russian navy's Black Sea fleet.

Most residents of the Black Sea peninsula have linguistic and cultural ties to Russia with a clear majority self-identifying as ethnic Russia.

Nowhere is that more apparent than the port city of Sevastopol which is home to the Russian navy's Black Sea fleet thanks to a lease agreement not set to expire until at least 2042.

The Russian tricolor flag flies over most buildings and the Ukrainian language is rarely heard on the streets. In recent days pro-Russia rallies have drawn enthusiastic crowds that have reveled in the colorful display of nationalistic pageantry.

But already politicians in Moscow are proposing ways to annex Crimea. In Russia's Duma, lawmakers proposed legislation Friday that would ease the process of adding territory to the Russian Federation. Saturday, the upper house of the Russian parliament approved the use of force to protect Crimea.

Crimea has only been part of Ukraine since 1954 when it was ceded to Ukraine's Soviet republic when the whole region was part of the USSR.

A further wrinkle is the presence of Crimean Tartars — a Turkic people who have long inhabited the region who suffered enormously during Stalin's purges.

This minority has broadly supported the nationalist protesters in Kiev and already scuffles have broken out between rival groups of Tartars and ethnic Russians and there are fears that Crimea's annexation would ignite ethnic conflict within the region itself.

At the same time, the interim government in Kiev — installed since Thursday and just a week after the ouster of ex-president Viktor Yanukovych has been powerless to stop the events unfolding in the Crimea.

"Our soldiers (in Crimea) aren't falling for any provocations and are protecting Ukrainian military bases and warehouses," said Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk. "Every half an hour Russian forces make provocations against our troops. Parliament has demanded that Russia stick to the Black Sea Fleet agreement and return the troops to their regular locations. I remind that any relocation of Black See Fleet troops must be approved by Ukraine, and Ukraine didn't give such permission."

[seemslikeadream]

Ukraine Mobilizes Reserve Troops, Threatening War
By ALISON SMALE and STEVEN ERLANGERMARCH 1, 2014

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Russia’s move to seize control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula on Saturday led Ukraine to call up its military reserves on Sunday and warn Moscow against further incursions as Western powers scrambled to find a response to the crisis.

A day after the Russian Parliament granted President Vladimir V. Putin broad authority to use military force in response to the political upheaval in Ukraine that dislodged a Kremlin ally and installed a new, staunchly pro-Western government, the Ukrainian government in Kiev threatened war if Russia sent troops further into Ukraine.

Russian troops stripped of identifying insignia but using military vehicles bearing the license plates of Russia’s Black Sea force swarmed the major thoroughfares of Crimea on Saturday, encircled government buildings, closed the main airport and seized communication hubs, solidifying what began on Friday as a covert effort to control the largely pro-Russian region.

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Acting President Oleksandr V. Turchynov, at the left lectern, on Saturday with acting Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, at the right lectern.Ukraine Finds Its Forces Are Ill Equipped to Take Crimea Back From RussiaMARCH 1, 2014
News Analysis: A History Lesson That Needs RelearningMARCH 1, 2014
The announcement of the reserve mobilization was an attempt by the rattled new government in Kiev to draw a line against Mr. Putin, an effort expected to continue later on Sunday when NATO holds an emergency meeting on Ukraine and the British foreign secretary, William Hague, visits Kiev in a sign of Western support.

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Ukraine in Maps
Russian armed forces effectively seized control of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula on Saturday.


What began three months ago as a protest against the Ukrainian government has now turned into a big-power confrontation reminiscent of the Cold War and a significant challenge to international agreements on the sanctity of the borders of the post-Soviet nations.

Mr. Putin convened the upper house of Parliament in Moscow on Saturday to grant him authority to use force to protect Russian citizens and soldiers not only in Crimea but throughout Ukraine. Both actions — military and parliamentary — were a direct rebuff to President Obama, who on Friday pointedly warned Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Mr. Obama accused Russia on Saturday of a “breach of international law” and condemned the country’s military intervention, calling it a “clear violation” of Ukrainian sovereignty.

In Crimea, the situation was calm but hardly placid on Sunday morning, with fewer soldiers visible on the streets. Some heavily armed soldiers without insignia had taken up positions around small Ukrainian military bases, but without trying to enter them.

At Perevalnoye, a small Ukrainian base some 15 miles south of Simferopol on the road to Yalta, scores of soldiers with masks, helmets and goggles, in unmarked uniforms, ranged along one wall of the base. Inside there were about two dozen Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with an armored personnel carrier.

Col. Sergei Starozhenko, 38, the Ukrainian commander, told reporters the unmarked troops had arrived about 5 A.M. and “they want to block the base.”

He said he expected them to bring reinforcements and call for talks. Asked how many men he has at his command, he said simply: “Enough.”

In Sevastopol, pro-Russian “self-defense” forces were blocking the entrances of the main Ukrainian naval headquarters. There was no sign of Russian troops, Ukrainian officers were at work inside and armed Ukrainians guards were on patrol behind the closed gates.

Pro-Russia demonstrators put up a banner reading: “Sevastopol without Fascism,” and urged Ukrainian officers to come over to their side rather than serve the “illegal fascist regime” in Kiev. The demonstrators shoved packs of cigarettes, candy and bottles of water through gate for the Ukrainian guards.

“They have to make a choice -- they either obey the fascists in Kiev or the people,” said Sergei Seryogin, a pro-Russia activist outside. Kiev, he said, “is illegal power” and should be ignored by all military and civil officials.

Photo
Launch media viewer Russian forces on Saturday sealed off the base for Ukraine’s border guard service in Balaklava, on the Crimean peninsula. Credit Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times Continue reading the main story
Russia kept up its propaganda campaign on Sunday in defense of the takeover, citing undefined threats to Russian citizens and proclaiming “massive defections” of Ukrainian forces in Crimea, which appeared to Western reporters to be unfounded. The state-owned Itar-Tass news agency cited the Russian border guard agency claiming that 675,000 Ukrainians had fled to Russia in January and February and that there were signs of a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

Russia insists that its intervention is only to protect its citizens and interests from chaos and disorder following the still unexplained departure from Kiev of former president Viktor F. Yanukovych.

“If ‘revolutionary chaos’ in Ukraine continues, hundreds of thousands of refugees will flow into bordering Russian regions,” the border service said, according to Tass, providing one more unsubstantiated justification for Russian military intervention.

Late Saturday, Ukraine’s acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, said he had ordered Ukraine’s armed forces to full readiness because of the threat of “potential aggression.” He also said he had ordered stepped-up security at nuclear power plants, airports and other strategic infrastructure.

Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, said he was “convinced” Russia would not intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine, “since this would be the beginning of war and the end of all relations” with Russia.

While Ukrainian forces in Crimea offered no resistance, there is concern that Russia might use the same pretext of citizens in peril to move forces into eastern Ukraine, which has many Russian speakers and heavy industry with close ties to Russia.

Large pro-Russia crowds rallied on Saturday in the eastern Ukrainian cities of Donetsk and Kharkiv, where there were reports of violence. In Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, fears grew within the new provisional government that separatist upheaval would fracture the country just days after a winter of civil unrest had ended with the ouster of Mr. Yanukovych, the Kremlin ally who fled to Russia.

In addition to the risk of open war, it was a day of frayed nerves and set-piece political appeals that recalled ethnic conflicts of past decades in the former Soviet bloc, from the Balkans to the Caucasus.

Mr. Obama, who had warned Russia on Friday that “there will be costs” if it violated Ukraine’s sovereignty, spoke with Mr. Putin for 90 minutes on Saturday, according to the White House, and urged him to withdraw his forces back to their bases in Crimea and to stop “any interference” in other parts of Ukraine.

In a statement afterward, the White House said the United States would suspend participation in preparatory meetings for the G-8 economic conference to be held in Sochi, Russia, in June, and warned of “greater political and economic isolation” for Russia.

The Kremlin offered its own description of the call, in which it said Mr. Putin spoke of “a real threat to the lives and health of Russian citizens” in Ukraine, and warned that “in case of any further spread of violence to Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Russia retains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population of those areas.”

In Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron said that “there can be no excuse for outside military intervention” in Ukraine.

Canada said it was recalling its ambassador from Moscow and, like the United States, suspending preparations for the G-8 meeting.

At the United Nations, the Security Council held an emergency meeting on Ukraine for the second time in two days. The American ambassador, Samantha Power, called for an international observer mission, urged Russia to “stand down” and took a dig at the Russian ambassador, Vitaly I. Churkin, on the issue of state sovereignty, which the Kremlin frequently invokes in criticizing the West over its handling of Syria and other disputes.

“Russian actions in Ukraine are violating the sovereignty of Ukraine and pose a threat to peace and security,” she said.

The secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, also spoke with Mr. Putin on Saturday and described himself as “gravely concerned” and urged Mr. Putin to negotiate with officials in Kiev.

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Mr. Yanukovych’s refusal, under Russian pressure, to sign new political and free trade agreements with the European Union last fall set off the civil unrest that last month led to the deaths of more than 80 people, and ultimately unraveled his presidency. The country’s new interim government has said it will revive those accords.

Ukraine’s acting president, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, said at a briefing in Kiev on Saturday evening that he had ordered Ukraine’s armed forces “to full combat readiness.” A Ukrainian military official in Crimea said Ukrainian soldiers had been told to “open fire” if they came under attack by Russian troops or others though it was unlikely they could pose a serious challenge to Russian forces.

Officials in Kiev demanded that Russia pull back its forces, and confine them to the military installations in Crimea that Russia has long leased from Ukraine.

“The presence of Russian troops in Crimea now is unacceptable,” said acting Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk. Decrying the Russian deployment as a “provocation,” he added, “We call on the government of the Russian Federation to immediately withdraw its troops, return to the place of deployment and stop provoking civil and military confrontation in Ukraine.”

Demonstrators put up a Russian flag near an administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine. Credit Photomig/European Pressphoto Agency
Sergey Tigipko, a former deputy prime minister of Ukraine and one-time ally of Mr. Yanukovych, said he flew to Moscow in hopes of brokering a truce.

The fast-moving events began in the morning, when the pro-Russia prime minister of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, declared that he had sole control over the military and the police, and appealed to Mr. Putin for Russian help in safeguarding the region. He also said a public referendum on independence would be held on March 30.

The Kremlin quickly issued a statement saying that Mr. Aksyonov’s plea “would not be ignored,” and within hours the upper chamber of Russia’s Parliament had authorized military action.

The authorization cited Crimea, where Russia maintains important military installations, but covered the use of force in the entire “territory of Ukraine.” Parliament also asked Mr. Putin to withdraw Russia’s ambassador to the United States.

By nightfall, the scores of armed men in uniform who first appeared on Crimea’s streets on Friday had melted away from the darkened center of Simferopol, vanishing as mysteriously as they arrived.

For the new government in Kiev, the tensions in Crimea created an even more dire and immediate emergency than the looming financial disaster that they had intended to focus on in their first days in office.

A $15 billion bailout that Mr. Yanukovych secured from Russia has been suspended because of the political upheaval, and Ukraine is in desperate need of financial assistance. Mr. Yatsenyuk, the acting prime minister, had said that the government’s first responsibility was to begin negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and start to put in place the economic reforms and painful austerity measures that the fund requested in exchange for help.

In Crimea, however, officials said they did not recognize the new government, and declared that they had taken control.

Mr. Aksyonov, the regional prime minister, said he was ordering the regional armed forces, the Interior Ministry troops, the Security Service, border guards and other ministries under his direct control. “I ask anyone who disagrees to leave the service,” he said.

As soldiers mobilized across the peninsula, the region’s two main airports were closed, with civilian flights canceled, and they were guarded by heavily armed men in military uniforms.


Similar forces surrounded the regional Parliament building and the rest of the government complex in downtown Simferopol, as well as numerous other strategic locations, including communication hubs and a main bus station.

Near the entrance to Balaklava, the site of a Ukrainian customs and border post near Sevastopol, the column of military vehicles with Russian plates included 10 troop trucks, with 30 soldiers in each, two military ambulances and five armored vehicles.

Soldiers, wearing masks and carrying automatic rifles, stood on the road keeping people away from the convoy, while some local residents gathered in a nearby square waving Russian flags and shouting, “Russia! Russia!”

As with the troops in downtown Simferopol, the soldiers did not have markings on their uniforms.

There were also other unconfirmed reports of additional Russian military forces arriving in Crimea, including Russian ships landing in Fedosiya, in eastern Crimea.

Crimea, while part of Ukraine, has enjoyed a large degree of autonomy under an agreement with the federal government in Kiev since shortly after Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union.

The strategically important peninsula, which has been the subject of military disputes for centuries, has strong historic, linguistic and cultural ties to Russia. The population of roughly two million is predominantly Russian, followed by a large number of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars, people of Turkic-Muslim origin.

In eastern Ukraine, which is also heavily pro-Russian, demonstrators in Kharkiv rallied and then seized control of a government building, pulling down the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag and raising the blue, white and red Russian one. Scores of people were injured as protesters scuffled with supporters of the new government in Kiev.

In Donetsk, also in the east, several thousand people held a rally in the city center, local news agencies reported, with many chanting pro-Russian slogans and demanding a public referendum on secession from Ukraine.

In Moscow, the parliamentary debate on authorizing military action was perfunctory, but laced with remarks that echoed the worst days of the Cold War. Underscoring the extent to which the crisis has become part of Russia’s broader grievances against the West, lawmakers focused on Mr. Obama and the United States as much as on the fate of Russians in Ukraine.

“All this is being done under the guise of democracy, as the West says,” Nikolai I. Ryzhkov, one member of Parliament, said during the debate. “They tore apart Yugoslavia, routed Egypt, Libya, Iraq and so on, and all this under the false guise of peaceful demonstrations.” He added, “So we must be ready in case they will unleash the dogs on us.”

Yuri L. Vorobyov, the body’s deputy chairman, said Mr. Obama’s warning on Friday was a cause for Russia to act. “I believe that these words of the U.S. president are a direct threat,” he said. “He has crossed the red line and insulted the Russian people.”

[kool maudit]

john kerry (essentially): "wow. just... wow."

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/kerry-ca ... -1.1710329

how drastically insufficient.

[seemslikeadream]

john kerry (essentially): "wow. just... wow."

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/kerry-ca ... -1.1710329

how drastically insufficient.

I know I saw it....I missed the part where he said the U.S. was funding the fascists

[FourthBase]

john kerry (essentially): "wow. just... wow."

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/kerry-ca ... -1.1710329

how drastically insufficient.

I know I saw it....I missed the part where he said the U.S. was funding the fascists

Which fascists?

[kool maudit]

svoboda and pravy sektor, i would guess.

(edit: although these factions were a component of the kiev protests, i do not want to overstate the case: i don't believe that there is a left or a right, a fascist or an anti-fascist side really present in this conflict at this point. this is an old-style european land war. its form pre-dates such modern factions).

[FourthBase]

So, not the fascists doing the invading right now?

[kool maudit]

So, not the fascists doing the invading right now?

no, different fascists. a stunning profusion of fascists. a veritable fascistic bouquet.