The build-up to war on Russia

[8bitagent]

Just in time for the road to World War 3 with Russia, Leonard Cohen releases his new album and return to dark nihilist pop (which he says will be his last album)

[Freitag]

War with Russia used to mean Mutual Assured Destruction. Has anything changed? I don't understand why is this being talked about like it could actually happen. I know we make caricatures of world leaders but they're not really crazy enough to do something like this, right?

[8bitagent]

Could you imagine Russian warships coming anywhere near American shores? We would indeed have this world war that is being whispered about. Thinking about it nukes would have to be used. I am no war analyst of any sort, but I cannot see a hot war on either continent without nukes. It could happen but "I doubt(?)" it will.

I don't believe nukes will be involved, but I do believe a hot war is coming. At the very least, the closest you can get that moves beyond mere West vs Russian proxies.
Russian planes come close to your and I's West Coast
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/27/world/us- ... ntentions/

July 2016: Two Russian bombers intercepted by U.S. fighter jets off the California coast on July Fourth could be seen as having raised a metaphorical middle finger to the United States.
"Good morning, American pilots. We are here to greet you on your Fourth of July Independence Day," they said, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

Half a million people have been killed in Syria in the 2011-2016 Syrian war, with of course Syrian/Russian/American/European fighter jets bombing the heck out of the country with proxy jihadists fighting eachother.
Chemical weapons rumored to also be involved, but no threat of nukes. Hell, I think we'd see "UFO's" intervene before actual nukes were ever launched;) But world leaders are insane to let accidents, over reaching whoopsies
and deteriorated relationships lead to multi-fronted global conflicts. But save for "ISIS" and North Korea, noone is insane enough to ever launch a nuke.

[8bitagent]

Hey, maybe this is why the US government is now allowing young women in all combat positions as well as possibly even force young women into a draft.
Going to need all the cannon fodder it can get...

[Sounder]

But save for "ISIS" and North Korea, noone is insane enough to ever launch a nuke.

Sorry but this is just not true, the US has launched, well dropped nukes two known times. And the neo-liberals seem perfectly willing to destroy the world if they are not allowed to impose economic hegemony on the whole world. They seem quite insane enough to me.

[cptmarginal]

NATO Appoints Its First Intelligence Chief - Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven of Germany named to post to streamline monitoring of Russia, terrorists - Oct. 21, 2016

Officials said Friday that alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is appointing Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven of Germany as assistant secretary-general for intelligence and security.

Officials have said much of the initial work of the new assistant secretary-general for intelligence will focus on improving intelligence sharing focused on Russia’s military buildup as well as addressing duplication in civilian and military intelligence efforts.

But officials have said the new post could also help improve counterterrorism intelligence sharing—pushing NATO into an area often left to bilateral cooperation.

NATO officials have denied that the intelligence post was created in response to Mr. Trump’s criticisms.

A longtime diplomat and currently the German ambassador to the Czech Republic, Mr. von Loringhoven, served as vice president of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service from 2007 to 2010.

While some U.S. officials in Washington had pushed for an American holding the job, the U.S. now has the deputy secretary-general post as well as another assistant position.

Alliance officials had sought a civilian for the post, preferably one with experience in military intelligence.

The new post will oversee both the civilian intelligence analysts who provide information to the secretary-general and NATO ambassadors, as well as uniformed analysts who work for NATO’s military committee.

NATO’s counterintelligence operations, aimed at preventing Russian infiltration of the alliance, will also report to the new assistant secretary-general, officials have said.

Dylan White, the acting NATO spokesman, said the intelligence chief will lead a new division of both civilian and military staff.

“All the challenges we face have an intelligence dimension, including terrorism, hybrid warfare and our operations,” Mr. White said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/01/world ... .html?_r=0

Baron Freytag von Loringhoven, Aide to Hitler, Dies at 93

By DOUGLAS MARTIN
APRIL 1, 2007

Baron Bernd Freytag von Loringhoven, who as a young German Army officer was one of the last to flee Hitler’s Berlin bunker as Soviet troops closed in, died on Feb. 27 in Munich. He was 93.

Wolf Jobst Siedler Jr., the German publisher of Baron Freytag von Loringhoven’s memoirs, confirmed the death, which had apparently been reported only in British newspapers.

In spring 1945, Baron Freytag von Loringhoven was a major and an aide to the chief of the German general staff, who was also in the bunker beneath the chancellery, the seat of government. His job was to gather military data, then compose maps and reports, which he presented to Hitler in daily briefings.

After World War II he spent two and a half years as a British prisoner of war and later worked in the publishing industry, then became an officer in the new West German Army, rising to lieutenant general. He held several high positions in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The only living veteran of the last days in the bunker is believed to be Rochus Misch, Hitler’s bodyguard. Hitler’s secretary, Traudl Junge, died in 2002, and Erna Flegel, a nurse in the bunker, died last year.

On April 29, 1945, Baron Freytag von Loringhoven left the bunker with permission from Hitler, who the next day aimed a Walther pistol at the roof of his mouth and squeezed the trigger.

“As Hitler wished me luck, I saw a glint of envy in his eye,” he said in an interview with The Observer in 2005.

In his later years, Baron Freytag von Loringhoven advised authors and filmmakers and gave many interviews. He and the French journalist François d’Alançon wrote “In the Bunker With Hitler: The Last Witness Speaks,” which was published last year.

The baron painted a picture of an eerie subterranean limbo where lights flickered with each bomb blast. He told of Magda Goebbels, the wife of the Nazi propaganda chief, Joseph, leading their six children into the bunker. The couple killed the children, then killed themselves.

He told of Hitler’s startling marriage to Eva Braun on April 29, 1945, and of his order to shoot his new brother-in-law. He told of Martin Bormann, a top Nazi, skulking in the shadows “like a spider in its web.” He told of Hitler engrossed in moving flags on a map when the troops they represented no longer existed.

He described Hitler as playing with his dog, on which he would test poison. He said Hitler was restrained in his rages, but “ice cold in his expressions.”

Baron Freytag von Loringhoven was an aristocrat descended from Teutonic knights. His ancestors migrated from the Rhineland to territory on the northeastern Baltic in the 15th century. He was born at their ancestral home on what is now the Estonian island of Saaremaa on Feb. 6, 1914. The family moved to Germany.

As a young man he wanted to be a lawyer, but Hitler’s government required Nazi party membership to enter professions. He joined the army, where that was not required. His cousin, Capt. Wessel Freiherr Freytag von Loringhoven, who later provided explosives for army officers’ unsuccessful attempt on Hitler’s life in July 1944, helped him get an officer’s commission.

The baron was an assistant to a general during the invasion of Poland in 1939 and was on the staff of another general during the invasion of Russia in 1941. He then won medals for commanding tanks, but reassignment as a courier allowed him to escape the carnage of Stalingrad.

After the failed assassination plot, Baron Freytag von Loringhoven became adjutant to the new army chief of staff. Hitler and his top advisers moved into the bunker on Jan. 16, 1945.

As everyone in the bunker discussed suicide, Baron Freytag von Loringhoven and two other junior officers escaped by persuading Hitler to let them find a general with whom communication had been lost. Hitler suggested a route to follow. One companion was killed, and the baron saved the other from suicide by forcing him to vomit poison.

The baron was arrested by the Americans and ended up in a British prison, where guards refused to believe he was not a Nazi. He said they kicked him, made him scrape paint with his fingernails, poured water on him and made him sleep naked.

He was never charged with war crimes, and vehemently insisted that there was a clear line between the Nazi party and military professionals. He claimed not to know about the massacres of Jews and others until after the war.

Several reviewers of his book nonetheless noted that he strongly criticized the army for military incompetence. Alison Rowat in The Glasgow Herald wondered if that meant he had hoped that the Germans would win.

“No wonder Loringhoven’s interrogators were confused,” she wrote.

Baron Loringhoven is survived by his son, now Baron Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, a senior German diplomat.

In an interview with The Los Angeles Times in 1995, the older baron said, “I am really one of the very last people to talk about these things.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_ ... randenburg)

[Novem5er]

How would a hot war with Russia escalate and where would it lead? I really think that today's guiding force is a nation's access to energy and to markets. Both Russia and America are ruled by an oligarchy of business interests; so I can't see either side wanting to completely destroy the world . . . they only want to destroy the competition, but not if it means destroying themselves. I think that's why MAD worked so well, and I think is still in place now.

But that doesn't mean we wouldn't go to war. I'm just trying to imagine what a modern war would look like if it were to stop short of nuclear war.

Imagine if Hillary gets here No Fly Zone, the Russians thumb their nose at it, and our aircraft destroy each other? What then?

I could imagine Russia attacking our airbase in Turkey, eliminating that threat and helping Erdogen in the process (they seem to be friendly again). I could see us simultaneously attacking their airfields in Syria. Who has more ships in the Mediterranian? Maybe there would be a naval conflict? I'm sure Europe would be holding its breath.

If it escalated, would Russia pop-up subs along our Atlantic coast and fire cruise missiles into our military bases? I wonder if they'd hop over the Bering Straight and damage something in Alaska. Could they launch an amphibious or air assault and land ground troops in Alaska? I could see them doing it just to prove they could and to gain a bargaining chip.

[seemslikeadream]

Putin is not suicidal ..Clinton is not suicidal ...Trump is an ignoramus who is too stupid to know what the word means

[DrEvil]

I think it's more likely they would start messing with the Baltic states and other Nato members they share a border with. They would probably invade northern Norway to take out the various intelligence operations going on there and create small distractions all over the place to avoid a unified front and stretch NATO's resources. Asymmetrical warfare on a large scale; deception and obfuscation is one thing they're very good at.

[Novem5er]

Putin is not suicidal ..Clinton is not suicidal ...Trump is an ignoramus who is too stupid to know what the word means

I agree that neither leaders wants their own lives destroyed in a thermonuclear fireball . . . but neither will have any problems sacrificing the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of thousands of civilians to claim victory over the either.

I think a war with Russia is less likely under Trump, but I can see him getting us involved in other conflicts that would be devastating in their own right. I can see him also hurting our economy over stupid trade wars and destabilizing markets.

DrEvil, I've been wondering about Europe. I don't see a full-on invasion where they try to expand their borders, although places like Latvia and Lithuania might be absorbed. The thing about directly attacking a NATO nation in Europe is that it would draw in all those nations . . . unless NATO balked and capitulated and told northern Norway that it's just a temporary situation.

[RocketMan]

Putin is not suicidal ..Clinton is not suicidal ...Trump is an ignoramus who is too stupid to know what the word means

I agree that neither leaders wants their own lives destroyed in a thermonuclear fireball . . . but neither will have any problems sacrificing the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of thousands of civilians to claim victory over the either.

I think a war with Russia is less likely under Trump, but I can see him getting us involved in other conflicts that would be devastating in their own right. I can see him also hurting our economy over stupid trade wars and destabilizing markets.

DrEvil, I've been wondering about Europe. I don't see a full-on invasion where they try to expand their borders, although places like Latvia and Lithuania might be absorbed. The thing about directly attacking a NATO nation in Europe is that it would draw in all those nations . . . unless NATO balked and capitulated and told northern Norway that it's just a temporary situation.

Was Curtis LeMay "suicidal" during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Arguably not, but he still would have sleepwalked (or, well, perhaps not SLEEPwalked) into a potential nuclear exchange anyway.

http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ma ... le_crisis/

General LeMay jumped aggressively into the discussion, giving no indication that he had understood the grim contingencies raised by the president. He declared that the United States doesn't have "any choice except direct military action." LeMay turned Kennedy's Berlin argument on its head: "I don't share your view that if we knock off Cuba they're gonna knock off Berlin. We've got the Berlin problem staring us in the face anyway." On the contrary, the Soviets "are gonna push on Berlin and push real hard" only if the United States failed to take military action in Cuba, since they would then feel "they've got us on the run."

A skeptical JFK interrupted to ask, "What do you think their reprisal would be" if we attacked Cuba? There would be no reprisal, LeMay asserted without missing a beat, as long as Kennedy told Khrushchev again: "If they make a move [in Berlin], we're gonna fight." He added, "Now, I don't think this changes the Berlin situation at all, except you've got to make one more statement on it."

The general moved in for the verbal kill: "So, I see no other solution. This uh . . . uh . . . blockade and . . . and political action I see leading into war. I don't see any other solution for it. It will lead right into war. This is almost as bad as the appeasement at Munich. I just don't see any other solution except direct military interv . . . intervention, right now."

And who's the goddam JFK in today's scenario?

[DrEvil]

DrEvil, I've been wondering about Europe. I don't see a full-on invasion where they try to expand their borders, although places like Latvia and Lithuania might be absorbed. The thing about directly attacking a NATO nation in Europe is that it would draw in all those nations . . . unless NATO balked and capitulated and told northern Norway that it's just a temporary situation.

My argument is predicated on the US and Russia already being in a hot war, which in turn would mean NATO and Russia being in a hot war.
I agree they probably won't do a full scale invasion of Europe except maybe, as you say, the Baltic states with large Russian minorities.

I mentioned northern Norway specifically because there's a shitload of monitoring stations belonging to NATO and the US up there keeping track of Russian fleet movements. It would also serve to distract and divide NATO.
In the larger scheme of things northern Norway is irrelevant, but on the other hand it belongs to a NATO country, which would force NATO to either divvy up its forces or ignore it and weaken the alliance. Both scenarios would be good for Russia.

[MacCruiskeen]

Hiya, tron: Gordon White's newsletter is called The Thin Red Line and you can subscribe to it at his website. He only started it up a couple of months ago, and it is more explicitly political and current-affairs-y than his blog. (I don't really get that magic(k) stuff.)

Also (to state the obvious!): I have no more idea than anyone else whether there will in fact be war between The West and Russia. And I have no desire to scare anyone unnecessarily or add to any hysteria. When I started this thread, I mainly intended it as a kind of data dump (on edit: of images, mainly from front pages), to document the very noticeable and sudden appearance of Putin as The New Satanic Enemy of Oceania. I remember walking past a news-stand and thinking: WTF?! Three German weekly magazines with practically identical 'Evil Putin' covers. It's been a really striking and sustained propaganda effort since then, kept on a medium-to-high flame for several years now, and intensifying visibly at the moment -- especially on the front pages of nearly all the respected quality middlebrow publications, from The Economist to Der Spiegel to the New Yorker.

Whatever happens, it's bound to "justify" increased military budgets all over The West, which is already a bad thing. Plus increased surveillance (full spectrum dominance of domestic populations.) Another bad thing.

And what worries me is that the current intensification of that propaganda drive has clearly been timed to coincide with the end of the US "election" campaign and the planned enthronement of Hillary the First.

PS Re: Gordon White: He keeps citing this guy Martin Armstrong. Anyone familiar with his work? (Might be worth starting a separate thread about it, though, rather than diverting this one.) I've read just a little about the guy and have no idea what to make of him.

[tron]

mac:- re justifying increased military budgets, obviously its the papers or media causing it, putin probobly wouldnt want the west bolstering itself too much? does the uk have much in the way of defensive systems? i know there is one ship based anti missile system but thats all i can see at the moment, would be nice to have some kinda iron dome gig that can track and stop cruise missiles etc.

i had a weird dream i survived whatever is happening and all the rich folks were magically gone, i made myself at home in a mansion as squatter in chief, was good dream.

[MacCruiskeen]

obviously its the papers or media causing it,

Well, no. The media don't come up with these ideas on their own. They're toeing a party line. A German writer I like once described Der Spiegel as "the house journal of the CIA in Germany". And what influential journal isn't spook-run in all essentials nowadays?

Re: military hardware, etc. I'm the wrong guy to ask, tron. No idea, really.