TRUTHISALL: THE 2004 ELECTION COLLECTION

[DrDebugDU]

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Here are FIVE REALISTIC scenarios based on LIVE voter turnout.<br><br>A significant finding is this:<br>Regardless of whether 100%, 99%, 98% or 97% of 2000 voters returned to the polls, the Kerry winning margin hardly<br>changes (it increases by 18,000 votes for each 1% decline).<br>So the percentage turnout factor is of minimal effect.<br>However, the voter turnout MIX is THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WIDE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE TOTALLY UNREALISTIC AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FINAL EXIT POLL (13660) AND THE REALISTIC AND VERY PLAUSIBLE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL (13047).<br><br>Using the 13660 final exit poll, after adjusting from a mathematically impossible mix (43 Bush/37% Gore) to a very plausible one (39.82/40.25%), then Kerry wins by 3.21 million votes (51%-48.4%), EXACTLY REVERSING the NEP conclusion that Bush won by 3.22 million.<br><br>Using the 13047 preliminary exit poll weights, Kerry wins by 7 million votes (52%-46.5%).<br><br><!--EZCODE CODE START--><pre> The Five Scenario Summary:Turnout Kerry Margin (millions)1 100% 3.21 (NEP final)2 100% 6.65 (NEP preliminary)3 99% 6.84 ""4 98% 7.02 ""5 97% 7.20 ""</pre><!--EZCODE CODE END--><br><br>THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF 13660 is matched to the final recorded vote. Bush won the poll by 3.22 million votes<br>(51.1-48.5%). <br>The poll asserts that 43% of Bush 2000 voters (an IMPOSSIBLE 104.14% turnout) came to the polls in 2004, while just 37% of Gore voters did. The proof: Bush received 50.456 million votes in 2000, or 41.26% of the total 122.26 million who voted in 2004. <br><br>According to death rate statistics, approximately 3.5% of 2000 voters have died. Subtracting 3.5% from the 2000 individual votes for Gore and Bush, and dividing the net result by 122.26 mm, then the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE LIVE 2000 voter turnout was 39.82% (Bush) and 40.25% (Gore).         <br><br><!--EZCODE CODE START--><pre> FINAL EXIT POLL (13660):IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGSVoted 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader20.774 No 17% 45% 54% 1%45.214 Gore 37% 10% 90% 1%52.546 Bush 43% 91% 9% 0%3.666 Other 3% 21% 71% 3%101.426 TOTAL 100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.63% Votes 122.53 62.49 59.27 0.77Bush Margin 3.22REALISTIC SCENARIOS:Scenario 1FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 millionVoted 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader21.163 None 17.31% 45% 54% 1%49.210 Gore 40.25% 10% 90% 0%48.684 Bush 39.82% 91% 9% 0%3.203 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16% TOTAL 100.00% 48.39% 51.02% 0.59%122.26 Votes 59.16 62.37 0.72Kerry Margin 3.21Scenario 2PRELIMINARY 13047 POLL- WEIGHTS ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATHRATE100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 millionVoted 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader21.163 None 17.31% 41.5% 57.5% 1%49.210 Gore 40.25% 8% 91% 1%48.684 Bush 39.82% 90% 9% 1%3.203 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16% TOTAL 100.00% 46.58% 52.02% 1.39%122.26 Votes 122.26 56.95 63.61 1.70Kerry Margin 6.65Scenario 3 (Most Likely)99% turnout of 2000 voters: 99.874 millionVoted 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader22.386 None 18.31% 41.5% 57.5% 1%48.598 Gore 39.75% 8% 91% 1%48.073 Bush 39.32% 90% 9% 1%3.203 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16% TOTAL 100.00% 46.51% 52.10% 1.39%122.26 Votes 122.26 56.86 63.70 1.70Kerry Margin 6.84Scenario 498% turnout of 2000 voters: 98.652 millionVoted 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader23.608 None 19.31% 41.5% 57.5% 1%47.987 Gore 39.25% 8% 91% 1%47.461 Bush 38.82% 90% 9% 1%3.203 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16% TOTAL 100.00% 46.43% 52.17% 1.39%122.26 Votes 122.26 56.77 63.79 1.70Kerry Margin 7.02Scenario 597% turnout of 2000 voters: 97.429 millionVoted 2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader24.831 None 20.31% 41.5% 57.5% 1%47.376 Gore 38.75% 8% 91% 1%46.850 Bush 38.32% 90% 9% 1%3.203 Other 2.62% 13% 71% 16% TOTAL 100.00% 46.36% 52.25% 1.39%122.26 Votes 122.26 56.68 63.88 1.70Kerry Margin 7.20</pre><!--EZCODE CODE END--><br><br><!--EZCODE HR START--><hr /><!--EZCODE HR END--><br>PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The weighted national pre-election poll average (50.51%)<br>matched the exit poll average (50.37%).<br>That's 1/7 of one percent.<br><br>Total percentages are based on the weighted average.<br>Kerry's actual 2-party vote: 48.76% = 59028/121056<br><br>Votes and percentages are 2-party based.<br>Vote percentages are shown for Kerry.<br>Bush% = 100 - Kerry%.<br><br>Pre: final pre-election state poll average.<br>Exit: exit poll 2-party percentages based on data downloaded<br>by Simon at 12:22am Nov.3.<br><br>P/A = 100*Pre/Actual<br>E/A = 100*Exit/Actual<br><br>Prob: Probability of deviation<br>P/A Prob = pre-election poll to actual<br>E/A Prob = exit poll to actual<br><br>Based on the pre-election polls: <br>41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush<br>Based on the exit polls: <br>43 out of 51 deviated to Bush<br><!--EZCODE CODE START--><pre> Pre/ Exit/ Prob Prob Favor Favor Vote Pre Exit Act Pre Exit Act Act Act P/A E/A Pre ExitTotal 121056 50.37% 50.51% 48.76% 60979 61144 59028 103.3% 103.6% 14.1% 12.2% 41B 43BAK 302 34.48% 40.14% 36.77% 104 121 111 94% 109% 6.3% 1.2% K BAL 1870 40.63% 41.08% 37.10% 760 768 694 109% 111% 0.9% 0.4% B BAR 1043 50.00% 46.60% 45.07% 522 486 470 111% 103% 0.1% 15.4% B BAZ 1998 47.37% 46.93% 44.72% 946 938 894 106% 105% 3.9% 7.1% B BCA 12255 53.85% 55.73% 55.04% 6599 6830 6745 98% 101% 21.3% 32.3% K BCO 2103 49.47% 49.07% 47.63% 1040 1032 1002 104% 103% 11.0% 16.9% B BCT 1551 55.32% 58.47% 55.27% 858 907 857 100% 106% 48.8% 1.6% B BDC 224 87.64% 91.63% 90.52% 197 205 203 97% 101% 2.7% 22.9% K BDE 372 54.22% 58.44% 53.83% 202 217 200 101% 109% 39.9% 0.1% B BFL 7548 51.55% 49.93% 47.48% 3891 3769 3584 109% 105% 0.3% 5.1% B BGA 3280 44.68% 43.11% 41.65% 1466 1414 1366 107% 104% 2.2% 16.5% B BHI 426 50.00% 53.32% 54.40% 213 227 232 92% 98% 0.2% 23.5% K KIA 1494 53.19% 50.67% 49.66% 795 757 742 107% 102% 0.9% 25.0% B BID 590 33.71% 33.33% 30.68% 199 197 181 110% 109% 2.2% 3.8% B BIL 5239 56.25% 57.13% 55.21% 2947 2993 2892 102% 103% 24.3% 10.0% B BIN 2448 40.21% 40.97% 39.58% 984 1003 969 102% 104% 33.7% 17.7% B BKS 1171 38.14% 34.60% 37.13% 447 405 435 103% 93% 25.0% 4.6% B KKY 1782 41.05% 40.76% 39.99% 732 726 713 103% 102% 24.0% 30.6% B BLA 1922 45.45% 44.50% 42.67% 874 855 820 107% 104% 3.2% 11.2% B BMA 2875 70.33% 66.46% 62.74% 2022 1911 1804 112% 106% 0.0% 0.7% B BMD 2359 55.67% 57.04% 56.57% 1313 1346 1334 98% 101% 27.5% 37.6% K BME 727 56.18% 54.83% 54.58% 408 399 397 103% 100% 14.4% 43.4% B BMI 4793 53.61% 52.55% 51.73% 2569 2519 2479 104% 102% 10.5% 29.1% B BMN 2792 54.17% 54.61% 51.76% 1512 1525 1445 105% 106% 5.4% 2.9% B BMO 2715 47.31% 47.47% 46.38% 1284 1289 1259 102% 102% 26.7% 23.3% B BMS 1130 45.16% 43.20% 40.49% 511 488 458 112% 107% 0.1% 3.6% B BMT 440 38.71% 39.28% 39.50% 170 173 174 98% 99% 70.1% 44.2% K KNC 3487 48.45% 47.31% 43.76% 1690 1650 1526 111% 108% 0.1% 0.9% B BND 308 38.89% 33.58% 36.09% 120 103 111 108% 93% 3.1% 4.7% B KNE 767 34.41% 36.54% 33.15% 264 280 254 104% 110% 20.1% 1.2% B BNH 672 50.00% 55.49% 50.69% 336 373 341 99% 109% 32.3% 0.1% K BNJ 3581 54.35% 56.13% 53.37% 1946 2010 1911 102% 105% 25.7% 3.3% B BNM 748 50.00% 51.34% 49.60% 374 384 371 101% 104% 39.5% 12.3% B BNV 816 50.00% 50.66% 48.68% 408 413 397 103% 104% 19.0% 9.4% B BNY 7277 59.38% 63.97% 59.29% 4321 4655 4314 100% 108% 47.7% 0.1% B BOH 5599 51.55% 52.06% 48.94% 2886 2915 2740 105% 106% 4.1% 1.9% B BOK 1464 31.46% 34.73% 34.43% 461 508 504 91% 101% 2.4% 42.1% K BOR 1810 53.19% 51.22% 52.11% 963 927 943 102% 98% 23.5% 27.8% B KPA 5732 52.63% 54.41% 51.26% 3017 3119 2938 103% 106% 18.0% 1.8% B BRI 429 60.87% 64.24% 60.58% 261 275 260 100% 106% 42.3% 0.7% B BSC 1600 43.30% 45.78% 41.36% 693 732 662 105% 111% 9.9% 0.2% B BSD 382 44.68% 37.42% 39.09% 171 143 149 114% 96% 0.0% 13.3% B KTN 2421 48.98% 41.15% 42.81% 1186 996 1036 114% 96% 0.0% 13.4% B KTX 7360 38.54% 36.84% 38.49% 2837 2711 2833 100% 96% 48.6% 13.5% B KUT 905 25.81% 29.93% 26.65% 234 271 241 97% 112% 28.6% 1.4% K BVA 3172 47.96% 47.96% 45.87% 1521 1521 1455 105% 105% 8.1% 8.1% B BVT 305 56.99% 65.69% 60.30% 174 201 184 95% 109% 1.4% 0.0% K BWA 2815 54.17% 55.07% 53.65% 1525 1550 1510 101% 103% 36.4% 17.2% B BWI 2968 53.68% 50.21% 50.19% 1593 1490 1490 107% 100% 1.0% 49.4% B BWV 750 48.42% 45.19% 43.52% 363 339 327 111% 104% 0.1% 13.2% B BWY 238 30.85% 32.07% 29.69% 74 76 71 104% 108% 21.9% 5.6% B BAvg 121056 48.57% 48.84% 47.09% 60979 61144 59028 103.4% 103.8% 16.3% 9.7% B BMedian 50.00% 49.07% 47.48% 102.7% 103.9% 4.6% 9.4% B B</pre><!--EZCODE CODE END--><br><br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/PreExitActual.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--> <p></p><i>Edited by: <A HREF=http://p216.ezboard.com/brigorousintuition.showUserPublicProfile?gid=drdebugdu>DrDebugDU</A> at: 9/6/05 7:06 am<br></i>

[DrDebugDU]

PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>For example, if the Bush National exit poll deviation was<br>3.50% in going from from 47.0% in the preliminary poll to<br>50.5% in the recorded vote, then the odds are 1 in 288<br>billion for this result to have occured by chance alone.<br><br>The 1.0% MOE stated by Edison/Mitofsky in the notes at the<br>bottom of the exit poll summary screen (WP/NEP) is used for<br>the calculation.<br><br>If the MOE was 1.50%, the odds are much higher that the<br>deviation could have been due to chance: 1 in 416,000.<br><br>We use the Normal Distribution Function, calculated over a<br>matrix of the two variables: Deviation and MoE (1.96*<br>standard deviation at the 95% confidence level). The standard<br>deviation = MoE/1.96 is entered in the Excel function.<br><br>The probability P is given by:<br>P = 1 - NORMDIST(Actual vote, Exit poll, MoE/1.96,TRUE)<br><br>P = 1 - NORMDIST(.505, .470, .01/1.96, true) = 1/288 billion.<br><!--EZCODE CODE START--><pre> Probability Matrix Deviation from preliminary exit poll to the final vote Exit Poll Margin of ErrorDev. 1.00% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 1 in1.00% 40 10 8 6 5 5 4 41.50% 609 40 22 14 10 8 7 62.00% 23k 223 80 40 25 17 13 102.50% 2.1mm 1.8k 391 140 68 40 27 203.00% 485mm 23k 2.6k 609 223 107 62 403.50% 288bn 416k 23k 3.3k 871 330 159 904.00% 450tr 11.5m 267k 23k 4k 1.1k 459 223</pre><!--EZCODE CODE END--><br><br><!--EZCODE HR START--><hr /><!--EZCODE HR END--><br>What are the odds?<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377140">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377140</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>1. 42 of 50 states deviating to Bush from the exit polls?<br><br>1 in 1,718,869<br>=1-BINOMDIST(41,50,0.5,TRUE)<br><br><br>2. ALL 22 states in the Eastern time zone deviating to Bush from the exit polls?<br><br>1 in 4,194,304<br>=BINOMDIST(22,22,0.5,FALSE)<br><br><br>3. Bush going from 48-51% in the National exit poll to 51-48% in the vote?<br><br>1 in 696,717,814<br>=NORMDIST(48/99,51/99,0.01/1.96, TRUE)<br><br><br>4. 16 of 50 states deviating to Bush beyond the exit poll MoE, none to Kerry?<br><br>1 in 19,083,049,268,519<br>=1-BINOMDIST(15,50,0.025,TRUE)<br><br><br><br>5. 86 of 88 touchscreens flipping Kerry votes to Bush?<br>1.23689E-23 =BINOMDIST(86,88,0.5,FALSE)<br>2.84343E-25 =BINOMDIST(87,88,0.5,FALSE)<br>3.23117E-27 =BINOMDIST(88,88,0.5,FALSE)<br>..........<br>1.26565E-23<br><br>1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000<br><br><!--EZCODE HR START--><hr /><!--EZCODE HR END--><br>Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x366974">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x366974</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>OUR EVIDENCE<br><br>We know Kerry led the pre-election state polls.<br>We know Kerry led the pre-election national polls.<br><br>We know Kerry led the post-election state exit polls, 51-48%.<br>We know Kerry led the post-election national exit poll, 51-48%<br><br>We know documented voting machine “glitches” favored Bush 99% of the time.<br><br>We know the media and E-M will not release detailed raw precinct data.<br>We know Blackwell refused to testify before Conyers.<br>We know Mitofsky refused to testify before Conyers.<br><br>We know that there were over 21 million new voters.<br>We know Kerry won the vast majority (57-62%) of new voters.<br><br>We know there were 3 million former Nader voters.<br>We kknow Kerry won Nader voters by 71%-21% over Bush.<br><br>We know Party ID averaged 39% Dem/35% Rep/26% Independent in the prior three elections.<br>We know Party ID was 38/35/27 for the first 13047 National Exit Poll respondents.<br>We know it was changed to 37/37/24 for the final 613 in the 13660 Final.<br><br>We know Kerry, like Gore, won the female vote 54/46% up until the final 660 respondents.<br>We know it was changed to 51% in the 13660 Final.<br><br>We know Bush 2000 voters represented an IMPOSSIBLE 43% of the 2004 electorate in the final 13660 Exit poll.<br>We know it was changed from 41% in the first 13047<br>We know that Bush had 50.456 mm votes in 2000.<br>We know that about 3.5% of them have since died.<br>We know, therefore, that the Bush percentage could not have been higher than 39.8% (48.69/122.26).<br>We know that with the 39.8/40.2% weighting, Kerry won by 52.4-46.7%, or SEVEN million votes.<br><br><br>We know the 2000 election was stolen - by Bush in Florida where 175,000 punch cards (70% of them Gore votes) were spoiled.<br>We know SCOTUS stopped the recount and voted 5-4 for Bush.<br><br>We know the 2002 election was stolen (ask Max Cleland).<br><br>We know that the National Exit Poll MoE is under 1%. <br>We know because we checked the NEP margin of error table.<br>We know because we did the simple MoE calculation.<br>We know that Kerry won the Natioanl Poll by over 3%, 51-48%.<br>We know the odds are astronomical that the deviation was triple the MoE.<br><br>We know that 42 of 50 states deviated from the exit polls to Bush. We know that includes ALL 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone.<br><br>We know that 16 states deviated beyond the exit poll MoE for Bush, and none did for Kerry.<br><br>We know that touch screen voting machines became widely used in 2004.<br><br>We know that Republicans fought against paper ballots for Diebold and ESS touch screens.<br><br>We know that ALL Diebold ATMs provide a paper receipt.<br><br>We know that the deviation trend from the exit polls to the vote was approaching ZERO until 2000, when there was a dramatic reversal.<br><br>We know that scores of newspapers which supported Bush in 2000 supported Kerry in 2004.<br><br>We know that Kerry won the Ohio Exit Poll, by at least 51-48%.<br><br>We know the media will not report in any of the above.<br><br><br>THEIR EVIDENCE:<br>Something we don't know.<br>The rBr hypothesis: Bush voters were reluctant to speak to exit pollsters.<br><br>But..<br>We know that many Republican voters deserted Bush for Kerry.<br>We know there were hardly any Gore Democrats who voted for Bush.<br><br>Ladies and Gentleman of the Jury:<br>Have you reached a verdict?<br><br> <p></p><i></i>

[DrDebugDU]

The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379474">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379474</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The maximum possible percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could<br>have voted in 2004 is 39.82%.<br><br>Bush 2000 voters: 50.456 million<br>Bush 2000 voters still alive = 48.69mm<br><br>Total 2004 voters: 122.3 mm.<br><br>Maximum Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of Total 2004<br>voters:<br>Bush 2000/Total 2004 = 48.69/122.3 = 39.82%<br><br>The same calculation for Gore voters = 40.25%<br><br>Now lets look at the National Exit Poll:<br><br><!--EZCODE CODE START--><pre> IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO I:13047 respondents: 12:22amKerry wins easy - even with an IMPOSSIBLE 41% Bush/39% Goresplit Mix Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry NaderNo 17% 41% 57% 2% 7.0% 9.7% 0.3%Gore 39% 8% 91% 1% 3.1% 35.5% 0.4%Bush 41% 90% 10% 0% 36.9% 4.1% 0.0%Other 3% 13% 65% 16% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 100% 47.38% 51.23% 1.21%Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73%(vote):1 in 38,498,885,514IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO II:Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:BUSH WINS: PURE FICTION - 43% IS EVEN MORE IMPOSSIBLEMIX Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry NaderNO 17% 45% 54% 1% 7.7% 9.2% 0.2%Gore 37% 10% 90% 1% 3.7% 33.3% 0.4%Bush 43% 91% 9% 0% 39.1% 3.9% 0.0%Other 3% 21% 71% 8% 0.6% 2.1% 0.2%100% 51.11% 48.48% 0.78%PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:Using the calculated maximum possible weightings, Kerry winsin a landslide:Kerry 63.89mm (52.24%Bush 56.77 (46.42%)Nader/Other 1.49 (1.22%)VOTE2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry NaderNo 17.00% 41% 57% 2% 7.0% 9.7% 0.3%Gore 40.24% 8% 91% 1% 3.2% 36.6% 0.4%Bush 39.82% 90% 10% 0% 35.8% 4.0% 0.0%Other 3.00% 13% 65% 16% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 100% 46.42% 52.24% 1.22%</pre><!--EZCODE CODE END--> <p></p><i></i>

[DrDebugDU]

ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352164">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352164</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS: 1988-2004<br>The Democrats have always lost votes from the preliminary<br>“unadjusted” exit poll to the vote.<br><br>Democratic Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image001.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Republican Preliminary Exit Poll Deviations from the Vote<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image003.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Preliminary Exit Poll Deviation Trend<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image002.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br><br>BUSH MONTHLY JOB APPROVAL: FEB. 2001 TO NOV. 2004<br>Bush Job Approval on Election Day was 48.50%.<br><br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image009.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br><br>FINAL 2004 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS<br><br>Kerry was ahead based on the average of 9 Independent Polls<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image007.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Kerry was leading in 11 of 18 Final Independent and Corporate<br>Polls<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image008.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br>PRE-ELECTION 2004 STATE POLL TREND<br>Kerry was gaining on Bush from his low point in mid-September<br><br>Pre-election State-weighted National Vote Trend<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image001.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Kerry Popular and Electoral Vote Forecast Trend<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image003.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Kerry was expected to win 60-75% of the Undecided Vote<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel_9609_image004.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br><br>POST-ELECTION 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL<br>Preliminary Exit Polls had Kerry the winner by 51-48%<br><br>Timeline: Kerry vs. Bush Respondents<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_12092_image001.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Kerry vs. Bush National Percentages by Category<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/dueXITdeMOGR_26354_image004.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Timeline of Characteristic Weights<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_Timeline.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Preliminary to Final Exit Poll<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_26960_KerryPct.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br>KERRY WIN SCENARIOS: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS<br>Kerry won under all plausible scenarios of the How Voted in<br>2000 Demographic<br><br>120 Kerry National Exit Poll Scenarios: New 2004 Voters and<br>Gore 2000 Voter Turnout<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_315_KerrySensTurnoutNewVoter.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Kerry Margin of Victory Sensitivity Analysis<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/3NatExitPolls_7103_KerryMarginSens.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br><br><br>POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT POLLS<br>Kerry was poised to win at least 311 Electoral Votes based as<br>of 12:22am.<br><br>Pre-election Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Actuals<br>42 out of 50 states deviated to Bush .<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/PreExitActual.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems I<br>Thousands of voting machine glitches were documented.<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/DUReportedMacineProbs_6421_image001.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Exit Poll Deviations and Reported Machine Problems II<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls1124_31950_ShiftTypeProblems.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Exit Poll Deviations from Actuals<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls115_31337_VotesLost.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Exit Poll Vote Deviations vs. Margin of Error<br>Bush deviations exceeded the Exit Poll MoE in 17 states.<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_KerryDevvsMOE.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br>Final Pre-election vs. Exit Polls<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15021_KerryPubVsExit.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br>Exit Poll Deviations by Time Zone<br>All 22 states in the Eastern Time Zone deviated to Bush.<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/FreemanExitPollData_10384_image001.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br>Pie Chart: State Vote Deviations<br>NY had the highest vote exit to vote deviation.<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/FreemanExitPollData_10384_image002.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--><br><br><br>NC State, Governor, Presidential Races: Absentee vs. Exit<br>Poll vs. Actual<br>Kerry deviations far exceeded the others, except when<br>absentee paper ballots were used.<br><!--EZCODE IMAGE START--><img src="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/Election2004ExitPolls_15024_image001.png"/><!--EZCODE IMAGE END--> <p></p><i></i>

[DrDebugDU]

EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 7/12/05 UPDATE<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x383839">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x383839</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS<br>July 12, 2005<br><br><br>Election Model Projection<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel">www.geocities.com/electionmodel</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>National Exit Poll<br>2:05pm Nov.3, 13660 Respondents<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html">www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>National Exit Poll<br>12:22am Nov. 3, 13047 Respondent<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>National Exit Poll<br>7:38pm Nov 2, 11027 Respondents<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm">www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>National Exit Poll Timeline (pdf):<br>11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf">www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf">www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents<br><br>11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf">www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>US Count Votes: new version of Working Paper (Updated June 26, 2005)<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382025">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382025</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE<br>Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352164">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352164</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL">https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS<br>Edited on Sat Jul-09-05 06:05 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x383014">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x383014</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>It's a shutout: FRAUD 3 , rBr 0<br>Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 12:38 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382581">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382581</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>It's a shutout: FRAUD 3 , rBr 0<br>Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 12:38 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382581">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382581</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Linear Regression GRAPH: Kerry State Vote vs. Exit Poll completion Edited on Mon Jul-04-05 10:47 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382344">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x382344</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Optimizer sensitivity analysis: aggregate alpha vs. partisan alpha<br>Edited on Fri Jul-01-05 02:26 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381871">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381871</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Bush approval/disapproval by state: clues about the fraud?<br>Edited on Wed Jun-29-05 01:57 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381452">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381452</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>ELECTION 2004 BY THE NUMBERS<br>Edited on Tue Jun-28-05 12:21 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381226">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381226</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>15% OF GORE VOTERS (7.65 MM) SUFFERED FROM ALZHEIMER'S IN 2004<br>Edited on Mon Jun-27-05 07:11 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381106">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x381106</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Naysayer Hobson's Choice: Final NEP or rBr? Take your pick.<br>Edited on Thu Jun-23-05 02:12 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380085">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380085</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>To believe Bush won, you must believe this.<br>Edited on Sun Jun-26-05 11:02 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380907">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380907</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>EXIT POLL NAYSAYERS: A 3RD GRADE ARITHMETIC TEST<br>Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 04:37 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379381">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379381</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>WPE and Aggregate Precinct Data Tell Us Where the Election was Stolen...<br>Edited on Wed Jun-22-05 04:39 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379883">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379883</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE CLINCHER: Kerry wins 120 of 120 scenarios<br>Edited on Tue Jun-21-05 02:12 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379573">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379573</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirms the USCV simulation<br>Edited on Sun Jun-19-05 07:08 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379134">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379134</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.<br>Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 11:44 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379474">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379474</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>First rBr, now eDp (Exuberant Democratic Pollster)<br>Edited on Wed Jun-15-05 12:19 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x378115">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x378115</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>To match WPE, alpha must = 1.155.<br>Edited on Tue Jun-14-05 08:24 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x378081">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x378081</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS<br>Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 08:19 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377745">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377745</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)<br>Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:52 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=377613#377846">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=377613#377846</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>What are the odds?<br>Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:26 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377140">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377140</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>POLL BAD, VOTE COUNT GOOD: The RW (M)ost (O)utrageous (E)xcrement<br>Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 12:25 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377263">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377263</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE%<br>Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:05 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377029">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377029</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>HERE'S WHAT BUSH NEEDED IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%<br>Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 12:56 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377073">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377073</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, wtd alpha must be at least 1.15<br>Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:22 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376814">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376814</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>OPTIMIZER: Assume the exit polls were RIGHT<br>Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 02:20 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376182">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376182</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?<br>Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 04:15 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x375366">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x375366</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?<br>Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:15 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=375270#">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=375270#</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers<br>Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 02:33 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x374958">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x374958</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void<br>Edited on Tue May-31-05 02:27 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373889">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373889</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Which of these facts convinced you that the election was stolen?<br>Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:06 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373210">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373210</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis<br>Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:51 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373414">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373414</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES?<br>CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED: 122.3MM<br>Edited on Thu May-26-05 05:21 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372831">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372831</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>CENSUS DATA MATCHED NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS(12:22AM, 13047 SAMPLE)<br>Edited on Fri May-27-05 07:50 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373187">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373187</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff<br>Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=372634&mesg_id=372634">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=372634&mesg_id=372634</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....<br>Edited on Wed May-25-05 01:51 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372443">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372443</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>A new Poly Sci Statistic: The sBr (shy Bush responder) differential<br>Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:11 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372040">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372040</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>IS rBr STILL BREATHING? REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!<br>Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:34 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371584">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371584</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST<br>Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:20 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371776">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371776</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Exposing the Myths: One by One<br>Edited on Sat May-21-05 10:30 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371420">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371420</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>rBr: The Bush voter equivalent of WMD. There's no there there.<br>Edited on Wed May-18-05 10:39 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x370703">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x370703</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Prob (86 of 88 screens switch K to B):<br>1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000<br>Edited on Sun May-15-05 10:23 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369374">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369374</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?<br>Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:17 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369349">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369349</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>YOU WANT KERRY? PRESS RIGHT HERE. DON'T YOU WORRY<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369552">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369552</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH.<br>Edited on Sat May-14-05 05:46 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369073">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369073</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>To Believe that Bush won.....<br>Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:21 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368702">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368702</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!<br>Edited on Sat May-14-05 01:34 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368977">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368977</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?<br>Edited on Sat May-14-05 07:05 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368931">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368931</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis<br>Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:38 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368831">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368831</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS<br>Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:24 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368350">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368350</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT<br>Edited on Thu May-12-05 09:18 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368562">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368562</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTES?<br>Edited on Tue May-10-05 09:00 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367638">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367638</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS<br>Edited on Tue May-10-05 02:40 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367600">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367600</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Could 14.4% of Gore voters have voted for Bush?<br>Edited on Sun May-08-05 09:32 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367160">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367160</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?<br>Edited on Sun May-08-05<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367129">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367129</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's margin<br>Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:30 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367001">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367001</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence<br>Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:22 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366974">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366974</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The Reluctant Republican Responder was a KERRY voter!<br>Edited on Sat May-07-05 03:05 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366880">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366880</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>FEBBLE: WILL YOU COMMENT ON THIS MYSTERY?<br>Edited on Tue May-03-05 09:28 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=365850">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=365850</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>PUZZLE FOR DUERS:NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP<br>Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:22 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364702">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364702</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364645">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364645</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%<br>Edited on Fri Apr-29-05 10:37 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE<br>Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 07:25 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL MATCHED STATE EXIT POLLS TO WITHIN .06%<br>Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 11:44 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362208">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362208</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION<br>Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 03:10 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>REFUTE THESE ODDS!<br>Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 06:16 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361819">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361819</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Z-score Probability (Bush Z>1 in 35 states): 1 in 4500 trillion<br>Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 01:28 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361736">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361736</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Red Shift: Z-scores and Probabilities. Take a deep breath.<br>Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 03:26 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=361617&mesg_id=361617">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=361617&mesg_id=361617</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?<br>Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:51 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359779">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359779</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its 1.0% for over 8000 respondents<br>Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 05:15 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=357345">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=357345</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?<br>Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:07 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359320">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359320</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>TIMELINE<br>Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:30 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359332">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359332</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"<br>Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 12:31 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359287">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359287</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens<br>Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 02:42 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x358495">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x358495</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts<br>Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 10:59 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x357758">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x357758</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Calculate SAMPLE-SIZE for any MoE and confidence level<br>Edited on Thu Apr-14-05 09:53 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x356832">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x356832</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data<br>Edited on Mon Apr-11-05 10:58 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x355250">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x355250</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>WAS THERE A (N)ATURAL (B)USH (R)ESPONDER?<br>Edited on Sun Apr-10-05 02:10 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354894">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354894</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>WHICH IS IT: RBR OR EBR ?<br>Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:35 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354809">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354809</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE BUSH "BANDWAGON" EFFECT...<br>Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 09:49 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354407">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354407</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?<br>Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 03:22 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352359">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352359</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?<br>Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352065">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352065</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote<br>Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351954">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351954</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>IF YOU BELIEVE THESE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...<br>Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 12:58 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351776">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351776</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>A 9TH GRADE ALGEBRAIC SMOKING GUN<br>Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:42 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351674">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351674</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>EXIT POLL MYSTERY: How Voted in 2000; 43% Bush/37% Gore<br>Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350713">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350713</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:KERRY'S NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY<br>Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350526">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350526</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>View the Mathematical FACTS for the TRUTH...<br>Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 10:38 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350334">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350334</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>FASTEN SEAT BELTS. THIS IS THE CLINCHER.<br>Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:47 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350225">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350225</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE FINAL NEP PADDED A MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE<br>Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349796">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349796</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT: KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 SCENARIOS<br>Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349444">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349444</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES<br>Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?<br>Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348688">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348688</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...<br>Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456#">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456#</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...<br>Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES<br>Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346932">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346932</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>FROM 13047 TO 13660: THE MAGIC 613 FINAL NEP RESPONDENTS<br>Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346890">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346890</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....<br>Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346284">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346284</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS<br>Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=346481">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=346481</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation<br>Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained<br>Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION<br>Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343448">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343448</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"<br>Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342913">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342913</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.<br>Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342689">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342689</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>GRAPHS:1988-2004 Exit Poll to Vote - Trend reversal in 2004<br>Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate<br>Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341540">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341540</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Nat Exit Poll: 7:58pm (Kerry) > 12:22am (Kerry)> 2:04pm (Bush)<br>Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Check. Mate.<br>Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=339246">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=339246</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?<br>Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x334949">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x334949</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"<br>Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=334152">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=334152</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?<br>Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x331601">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x331601</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS<br>Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=318693&mesg_id=318693">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=318693&mesg_id=318693</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY<br>Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM <br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x325206">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x325206</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW<br>Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS<br>Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Pobabilities of various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll<br>Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM<br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175">www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br> <p></p><i></i>

[DrDebugDU]

Test Kick (and we need this for tomorrow as well )

On edit: For some weird reason the conversation put all the statistics on one line, so please scroll a bit -------- >>>>> when reading this ----- >>>>>>>

+ special election addition:
The History of Bush Voter Fraud

Voting fraud is nothing new for the Bushes. George H.W. Bush first tried it in 1980 to get the Presidential nomination. It was still new so it failed and he went on to nominate himself as Vice President. To win the 1980 Presidential Election a hostage crisis was staged together with the Ayatollah and in 1988 George H.W. Bush became the first Bush president by fraud (Dukakis was in the lead in the polls). Junior managed to perfect the work of the Bushes in 2000, 2002, 2004 and today he will take voter fraud to a new height.

Know your Bush past:

George Bush: The Unauthorized Biography
by Webster G. Tarpley & Anton Chaitkin
Chapter -XVI- Campaign 1980

Le mercennarie et ausiliarie sono inutili e pericolose; e, se uno tiene lo stato suo fondato in sulle arme mercennarie, non sara' mai fermo ne' sicuro.*

-Machiavelli, Il Principe

(...)

Loeb began to play up the theme of Bush as a liberal, as a candidate controlled by the "internationalist" (or Kissinger) wing of the GOP and the Wall Street bankers, always soft on communism and always ready to undermine liberty through Big Government here at home. A February editorial by Loeb reacted to Bush's Iowa success with these warnings of vote fraud:

The Bush operation in Iowa had all the smell of a CIA covert operation.... Strange aspects of the Iowa operation (included) a long, slow count and then the computers broke down at a very convenient point, with Bush having a six per cent bulge over Reagan...Will the elite nominate their man, or will we nominate Reagan? (fn 19)

(...)

http://www.tarpley.net/bush16.htm

Even though Loeb is a Repuke he makes the perfect assessment of what Bush is. Bush and CIA can be interchanged, because that is their extended family. And the CIA is nothing more than an arm of the Henry Kissinger wing, Wall Street and the international bankers.

* Therefore a translation of the excerpt is very relevant for the state of mind of the Bushes and Machiavelli is the prime source of inspiration for the Bush clan:

I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed. Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious, and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you.

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/1232/123 ... m#2HCH0012

The kings are the Rockefellers, Henry Kissinger, and the Rothschilds; The princes are the Bushes and the Cheneys; Wall Street is their kingdom; the CIA is their army; Diebold, Fox News, and Database Technology are their arms. The US army are mere mercenaries to be used abroad, for their home rule they rely on the CIA and all the other alphabet agencies and fronts. They have no affliation with the United States which is just a country to be subjugated hence the voter fraud since 1980 and with Clinton as an intermediate president, the Central Intelligence of America has ruled for 26 year already and will go for 36 years if 2008 will be Hillary versus Jeb as the next President