Friday night Pandemic Watch - Swine Flu coming to you?

[erosoplier]

Ah, sorry, lbo. I must have read nearly everything on this [/that] page except the bit where you mentioned that.

It's good that they are bending a little - they get the profits whether it comes with thimerosal or not, after all.

[23]

I spoke to a doctor, the other day, who informed me that his coworkers are treating general flu symptoms as if they were symptoms of H1N1.

A friend of mine, who is a local EMT and drops by several hospitals in the course of his work, also informed that many emergency rooms are doing the same.

The only way to definitively confirm that you have H1N1 is via a blood test.

Absent one, many health professionals have resigned themselves to treating general flu symptoms as H1N1 symptoms.

Which is one reason why I don't trust the numbers that are being publicly announced.

[chiggerbit]

Well, they do test the ones who need to be hospitalized, 23, and almost all of them come back as swine flu. I doubt that the numbers would be that different for the rest of the population. You can hardly blame them for making that assumption if the five people in the hospital who have flu symptoms have tesed positive for swine flu and the schools in the area have 25% absence rates. It's just common sense. And it's still a bit early for the usual flus.

[23]

Well, they do test the ones who need to be hospitalized, 23, and almost all of them come back as swine flu. I doubt that the numbers would be that different for the rest of the population. You can hardly blame them for making that assumption if the five people in the hospital who have flu symptoms have tesed positive for swine flu and the schools in the area have 25% absence rates. It's just common sense. And it's still a bit early for the usual flus.

I wish I knew someone in hospital administration. I'd be curious to know how they report those folks who appear with flu-like symptoms in their emergency rooms and walk-in clinics, and then get sent home afterwards. My suspicion is "probable H1N1", by simply diagnosing the symptoms.

And I'd like to know how the CDC treats those numbers too.

Obama calling it a national emergency... after H1N1 had already peaked here and was graphing downwards (according to the CDC)... smells like Big Pharma to me. And it's a stench that I'm familiar with.

[lightningBugout]

Obama calling it a national emergency... after H1N1 had already peaked here and was graphing downwards (according to the CDC)... smells like Big Pharma to me. And it's a stench that I'm familiar with.

What in the world are you talking about?

From the CDC:

October 30, 2009, 1:30 PM

Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView. During the week of October 18-24, 2009, a review of the key indictors found that influenza activity continued to increase in the United States from the previous week. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

* Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.
* Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year. Hospitalization rates continue to be highest is younger populations with the highest hospitalization rate reported in children 0-4 years old.
* The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for four weeks now. In addition, 22 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 19 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and three were influenza A viruses, but were not subtyped. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 114 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 12 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.
* Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This many reports of widespread activity are unprecedented during seasonal flu.
* Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

[23]

"What in the world are you talking about?"

I'll assume that you are referring to H1N1 already having peaked. If I'm incorrect, please correct me.

As for H1N1 having peaked in October, all you have to do is Startpage (by Ixquick) the terms "CDC", "H1N1", "peaked" and "October" to confirm that.

As for the current downward trend of H1N1, all you have to do is Startpage the terms "H1N1" and "peaking" to the see the various news reports from many states that this is the case for them.

You may, of course, Google the same terms instead of Startpaging 'em, if that is your preference. Although Google censors their stuff while Startpage does not.

[lightningBugout]

Mostly I am getting two types of stories with those search terms. 1) local newspapers and tv stations speculating as to whether h1n1 peaked locally in mid-October and 2) articles calling Obama's declaration into question.

Correct me if I am wrong but I am seeing nothing on the CDC website to support the claim that said organization has said h1n1 has already "peaked."

[23]

Mostly I am getting two types of stories with those search terms. 1) local newspapers and tv stations speculating as to whether h1n1 peaked locally in mid-October and 2) articles calling Obama's declaration into question.

Correct me if I am wrong but I am seeing nothing on the CDC website to support the claim that said organization has said h1n1 has already "peaked."

That's funny. When I plug "H1N1" and "peaking" into my search engine, I get news reports from many states stating that the number of people, who have been stricken with H1N1 symptoms in their state, is starting to decline. That doesn't sound like speculation to me. It sounds like local healthcare professionals attesting to that observation by looking at their numbers.

I'm curious what other readers find when they plug the same terms in their search engines. Speculation, or a reporting of local conditions based on numerical assessment.

As for the CDC's response to regional reports that the numbers are going down...


Swine flu levels off in Georgia
http://www.ajc.com/health/swine-flu-lev ... 74477.html

"Georgia's recent decrease in swine flu illness is in tune with a down-tick across the Southeast, according to the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But CDC officials warned that the decrease only arrived in about the past week, so they are hesitant to draw any broad conclusions.

The illness nationally continues to trend upward, the CDC said."


Fortunately, and in a couple of weeks, we'll know the real deal, won't we? In just a week or two.

If evidence of a decline convincingly mounts, think Obama will no longer need a national emergency?

It will be interesting to see.

P.S. I enjoy watching the CDC's consistent use of the terms "likely" and "probable" in the articulation of their numbers.

[seemslikeadream]

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm


Now we go into deep background mode on this with an email I received from a particularly well informed reader who expects this will be one for the history books that should be watched closely:

"This story may be the most important of our lifetimes. I'm a retired Ph.D. biochemist FYI. I conjecture that much of the coming troubles the web bot project speaks of may well arise from this new flu variant. I note that the first cases appeared a few days ago, just the length of the incubation period from October 25th.

OK, a Mossad microbiologist warned two months ago that a new deadly flu bug was going to be released into Ukraine in two months. He got the place right, the bug right, and the time right.

The sequence of all 8 pieces of RNA in the virus that caused the "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918-1919 is public knowledge. A long dead Inuit woman buried in the permafrost was dug up and the virus taken from her body a couple of years ago and the RNA pieces were sequenced. Quite simple to synthesize these 8 pieces with widely available commercial machines and reagents. Then transfect mammalian cells with the RNA genes to obtain the intact, fully functional, virus. Another quite well known technology. Then grow all you want in fertilized chicken eggs or a mammalian immortal cell line. More quite well known technologies.

What scares the sh*t out of me is that the bleeding in the lungs is exactly what killed a lot of folks in the 1918-19 pandemic. See the great book "The Great Influenza: The story of the deadliest pandemic in history ." People would literally fall dead walking across the street. The bleeding out of the lungs was most likely the result of a "cytokine storm" that so increased the vascular permeability in the air sacks that blood filled the lungs. The reason why the mortality in the 1918-1919 pandemic was concentrated in the 18-25 yo cohort was that they had the most active immune systems.

Now I've NO conjecture as to who may have let this loose or why. But I do know that the technology is widespread to replicate the 1918-1919 virus that killed 2-4 million Americans and about 50 million world wide. And folks only traveled by ship in 1918. And there is NO vaccine for this flu type.

Hopefully we will know in a couple of weeks the sequences of the 8 RNA pieces in the Ukraine virus. I'll bet the farm that it is a replicant of the "Spanish Flu." If so, the odds are totally infinitesimal that this was NOT a deliberate bioweapon release.

I note that long haul truckers will simply go home and park their rigs if this flu reaches the USA. And exactly what reason do we have to suppose that it will be confined to Ukraine? The average city has 3 days of food. Connect the dots... please...............

A credit is due here. the word "replicant" is from the great sci-fi movie "Blade Runner."

All of this is puts us on the scale of impact somewhere in the middle between inconvenient to bad on one end of the scale to horrific and Biblical at the far end. But the linguistics seem to be pointing to the most terrible of all yet to come with temporal hints around the time of the Whistler Olympics (late February to mid March) for another round of dispersal.



The nonzero probabilities keep adding up and at some point, even the most skeptical human has to reach the point of non-coincidence and conclude what's for now only a possibility: Namely that the factions of the PowersThatBe are at war with one-another and we - humans down here at the worker bee level - are the unwilling cannon fodder for the coming year or longer.

[chiggerbit]

I'm not going to link this, because I don't want everybody to show up there. I thought it was interesting, but it could just be one of those internet rumors that are so common:

We just got a phone call from a close friend in Montana who lives right down the road from our ranch we had there.
It seems that one of the big ranches in the local area, about five miles from our old house, has been closed down, and put under a state quarantine.
The suppose reason is Swine Flu, BUT our friend did not know whether it was due to sick stock or human sickness. This is scaring alot of the rural neighbors there.
I am currently trying to get ahold of the mail lady and get her take on all of this. Since she drives right past their driveway going both directions she should be able to tell me if they have signs and/or LEO's enforcing this.
This ranch is a huge family operation which alot of the other rural residents feel is a cult. Rumor has it there are enough guns, ammo and food for the making of alot of trouble from this bunch. One person's nut jobs are another persons well planned survival retreat.
It maybe tomorrow before I can let all of you know what I have learned.

[chiggerbit]

The above could be the wasting disease.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_wasting_disease

Someone here told me that chronic wasting disease was found in an elk herd near Rochester, Minnesota, and also mentioned the rest of the story, which is a bit of a shocker for me:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/outdo ... c:_Yyc:aUU


Chronic wasting disease in 3 elk among 560 shot near Rochester

Fears that disease could spread to wild deer prompted slaughter.

By MATT McKINNEY, Star Tribune

Last update: October 30, 2009 - 11:17 PM
Featured comment
Captive Elk

Same story over and over. Stop the captive Elk programs and we won't have Chronic Waste. Not sure how often it finds it's way into the deer … read more


Sharpshooters killed a farm herd of some 560 elk near Rochester this month, and tests of the animals found three infected with chronic wasting disease, state officials said Friday. The slaughter was ordered after one of the animals tested positive for the disease in January.

The animals lived on the 1,300-acre Elk Farm LLC near Pine Island, the largest elk farm in the state. The farm, bought by Tower Investments of Woodland, Calif., in 2006, is part of a 2,300-acre tract set to become a bioscience research and manufacturing center called Elk Run, with offices, shops, homes and 15 to 25 companies.

The carcasses were sent to a landfill, except for the three that tested positive, which were destroyed at a special facility at the University of Minnesota. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) paid Tower Investments a fair market value for the elk, said Paul Anderson, assistant director of the Minnesota Board of Animal Health.

The USDA sharpshooters began shooting the animals last month. Tests were conducted at a USDA lab in Ames, Iowa.

Chronic wasting disease kills elk and deer after infecting their brains and nervous system. The animals spread it through nose-to-nose contact. It does not spread to people. It was first detected in farmed elk in 2002, prompting fears that it could spread to the state's population of some 1 million wild deer.

[whipstitch]

Another post from the guy who works ER in the midwest...

I was very hesitant to recommend vaccine until the last 2 weeks...I am personally very fearful now of this bug......HIGHLY recommend vaccine now especially to children and pregnant women .....if you are late term preganancy its critical..If you get tamiflu in FIRST 36 hours it may help. I am seeing essentially two types of patients with swine flu....vast majority are typical influenza.....the other type are dying.......fortunately they are few but all are healthy with no complicating factors.....usually the symptoms of the dying patients have existed for 4 or 5 days before the onset of the sudden turn to hell.

[chiggerbit]

I am seeing essentially two types of patients with swine flu....vast majority are typical influenza.....the other type are dying...

This may sound crazy, but I've always wondered if the practice of giving drugs to lower fevers is a good idea. I've always figured the body knows what it's doing, and that fever is the body's way of fighting the virus, so artificially lowering fevers might interfer with the immune response. I know that above 104 can get dangerous, but below that, well, I wonder of we should leave it alone. What if these hospitals are unknowingly killing their patients by giving them tylenol or whatever?

[chiggerbit]

In other words, is the fever a by-product of a process, or is it the process?

[23]

I am seeing essentially two types of patients with swine flu....vast majority are typical influenza.....the other type are dying...

This may sound crazy, but I've always wondered if the practice of giving drugs to lower fevers is a good idea. I've always figured the body knows what it's doing, and that fever is the body's way of fighting the virus, so artificially lowering fevers might interfer with the immune response. I know that above 104 can get dangerous, but below that, well, I wonder of we should leave it alone. What if these hospitals are unknowingly killing their patients by giving them tylenol or whatever?

You are not alone in your perspective on this issue:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 374488.cms